By Geoffroy Dolphin, Romain Duval, Galen Sher and Hugo Rojas-Romagosa
WASHINGTON DC, Jun 5 2024 – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered Europe’s worst energy crisis since the 1970s and put energy security back at the top of the policy agenda.

Policymakers reacted swiftly by securing alternative natural gas supplies, improving energy efficiency, and expanding renewables.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions would, they said, not only mitigate climate change but also strengthen energy security. Skeptics, however, countered that this approach would increase the cost of energy, phase out safe (albeit dirty) domestic coal more rapidly, and ultimately weaken the continent’s energy security.

So, which view is correct? Our new research shows that boosting Europe’s climate action delivers sizable energy security benefits, too.

We weigh the effects of climate action on energy security in a global economic model with many countries and sectors. It simulates the impacts of policies to reduce emissions on two essential security measures.

The first measure, security of supply, assesses the risk of a disruption to energy supply by combining how dependent a country is on imports for its energy consumption with how diversified those energy imports are. The second is the resilience of its economy to an energy disruption, represented by the share of gross domestic product it spends on energy.

Strikingly, our analysis reveals that Europe’s energy security deteriorated in the decades before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as countries relied increasingly on imports from ever fewer suppliers.

The simulations also show that higher carbon prices, stronger sector-specific energy efficiency regulations, and accelerated permitting for renewables would all improve Europe’s energy security along these two key metrics.

Effects would differ across policies, however:

Carbon pricing cuts emissions at the lowest output cost to the economy but may take time to improve energy security in some energy- and emission-intensive economies in Central and Eastern Europe, if used as the only emission-reduction tool.

This is partly because these countries would have to phase out domestic coal sooner than otherwise.

Stronger energy-efficiency regulations for transport and buildings, by contrast, are less efficient than carbon pricing in cutting emissions, but they deliver larger energy security co-benefits. They also spread those benefits more evenly across countries.

Such regulations lower the consumption of energy, just as carbon pricing does, but they tend to reduce the price of energy—and thereby overall energy expenditures—more. Combining them with support to poorer households—for purchases of more energy-efficient vehicles and domestic heating systems, for example—would make them more palatable and thereby speed up implementation.

Accelerated permitting for renewables also improves energy security widely across Europe by expanding domestic energy supply.

Packaging climate policies

A climate policy package that includes all these tools is the most promising way forward because it combines the economic efficiency of carbon pricing with the larger and more evenly shared energy security benefits of regulations.

Specifically, a package of measures improves energy security in three ways. First, it lowers dependence on imports by replacing imported fossil fuels with domestically produced renewable electricity.

Second, it diversifies individual economies’ energy imports away from non-European suppliers toward European ones—through enhanced penetration of renewables and electrification of end uses such as vehicles and house heating systems, in particular, given that European countries predominantly trade electricity with their European neighbors.

And third, it lowers energy expenditures because efficiency investments reduce demand and accelerated renewables deployment raises energy supply—both of which lead to lower energy prices. This more than offsets the higher cost from higher carbon pricing.

An illustrative policy package that cuts emissions by 55 percent compared to 1990 levels would improve the two energy security metrics by close to 8 percent by 2030 for Europe as a whole.

For the European Union, this package, which is consistent with the “Fit-for-55” agenda, would reverse 13 years of deterioration in economic resilience to energy disruptions and eight years of reduction in security of energy supply. As Europe continues to ramp up its climate policy action beyond 2030, these gains would only increase.

Multilateral cooperation

The simulations also support the case for strong multilateral cooperation within Europe, given that countries differ in their energy security gains and emission reduction costs (which, in turn, reflect factors such as their current energy intensity, energy mix, and potential for renewable power generation).

A common facility that would pool resources and coordinate green investments at the EU level could accelerate the green transition at low cost while distributing its gains more evenly, including by tapping cheap abatement options in emerging EU member countries.

Completing the EU’s energy union strategy is a case in point: better connecting national grids would lower costs and help individual countries import electricity from other member countries in the event of domestic disruptions, improving energy security for all.

At a time when the momentum behind climate action is at risk of fading, European policymakers should consider its full benefits. By ramping up their individual emission reduction policies as planned and strengthening their cooperation, not only will they remain global leaders on the path toward net zero emissions by 2050, but they will also secure abundant and safe energy supply to power their economies into the future.

Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)

IPS UN Bureau

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By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Jun 5 2024 – The Biden administration, which is frantically attempting to finalize a shaky peace agreement between Israel and Hamas, is being stymied by at least two far right-wing politicians in Netanyahu’s cabinet— Foreign Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir–and also by the Israeli Prime Minister himself who wants to totally eradicate Hamas before he agrees to a cease-fire.

But peace or no peace, the charges against Israel, including genocide, war crimes, starvation as a weapon of war, and the destruction of homes, hospitals, schools, universities, mosques, and churches, will continue to linger.

Last week, the United Nations clarified that the overall number of fatalities, tallied by the Ministry of Health in Gaza, is estimated at more than 35,000 Palestinians, overwhelmingly civilians, since the attack by Hamas which killed 1,200 inside Israel on October 7—reflecting the totally disproportionate killings by the Israelis.

The Ministry of Health provided a breakdown for 24,686 “fully identified deaths out of the total 34,622 fatalities recorded in Gaza, as of April 30”. The death toll includes 7,797 children, 4,959 women, 1,924 elderly, and 10,006 men.

Since these killings were mostly with American weapons, the question that remains unanswered: Is the US, the primary arms supplier to Israel, as complicit in war crimes and genocide—as is Israel?

According to a May 31 report in Cable News Network (CNN), researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and the Johns Hopkins Center for Humanitarian Health have projected that if the war continues to escalate, the total number of deaths would surpass 72,000 by August. And if the impact of epidemics sparked by the conflict is included, the toll could be close to 86,000 by then.

Israel’s diplomatic isolation could grow if the war drags on, CNN said. The government has become the target of increased censure on the world stage, drawing sharp criticism from some of its closest allies in Europe for its conduct.

Dr. Simon Adams, President and CEO of the Center for Victims of Torture, the largest international organization that treats survivors and advocates for an end to torture worldwide, told IPS that Hamas’ attacks on Israeli civilians on 7 October were truly horrific and generated global sympathy.

“But that has been squandered by this extremist Israeli government. They have pursued a policy of collective punishment against the entire Palestinian population in Gaza, and by doing so, have made themselves global pariahs. Several have also become indicted war criminals.”

“What’s happening in Gaza is an un-natural disaster. It is a result of man-made decisions by the Israeli government to systematically bomb Palestinian civilians and violate the laws of war. There is no such thing as a safe zone or a so-called precision strike if you are bombing an area where displaced children are sleeping nearby in tents,” he pointed out.

The Israeli government is outraged that it has been accused of atrocities at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and by the International Criminal Court (ICC). But the rest of the world is outraged by a culture of impunity that has led to so many civilian deaths and so much wanton destruction.

That’s why Israel has become an international pariah, Dr Adams declared.

Romy Hawatt, Founder & CEO of the Dubai-based Riana Group, told IPS the international community’s growing scrutiny of Israel’s policies and practices marks a significant shift, emphasising the urgent need for accountability and reform.

“As the world increasingly condemns actions reminiscent of apartheid-era South Africa, it is crucial to foster empathy and a balanced perspective to administer justice and address past wrongs while working towards a sustainable long-term solution”.

Recognising the legitimate security concerns of all parties involved is essential for achieving a lasting peace that benefits everyone, he said.

“To achieve an equitable and just solution, it is evident that addressing the root causes of the ongoing conflict is imperative”.

This involves unequivocally condemning actions that violate human rights and international law, said Hawatt, whose group has made significant contributions, directly and through reputable NGOs, to support refugees, orphanages, children’s health and education, water projects, homelessness, and poverty alleviation.

As calls for compensation and restitution for Palestinians grow, it is essential for Israel to embrace principles of equality, freedom, and justice for all, he argued.

“Under the sponsorship and authority of the United Nations, a concerted effort by all parties is required to bridge divides, foster dialogue, and ensure security. Only through a comprehensive, just, and balanced approach can we hope to achieve lasting peace, dignity, and equality for all residents of the region, whether in two states living side by side or a democratic single state where Jews, Arabs, and others can coexist peacefully,” he declared.

Ramzy Baroud, a journalist and Editor of The Palestine Chronicle, told IPS Israel’s attack on Rafah continued despite the US’ ‘red line’ warnings and appeals made by all parties involved, including Israel’s Western allies.

The incursions, including the Tents Massaccre and subsequent massacres, all took place after the International Court of Justice’s decision that Israel must halt its Rafah operation immediately.

Technically, this should mean that Israel is not only a pariah within the context of international law but it ought to be a pariah from the viewpoint of its own allies, he said.

“And this is where the hypocrisy of the West becomes even more glaring as their support for Israel continued even after the escalation of the Israeli genocide, throughout the Gaza Strip but most specifically in Rafah”.

The war on Gaza has helped us understand the limits of Israeli-Western military power and intelligence, but also allowed us to see the limits of the often-touted international law, he noted.

Recent experiences have taught us that international law seems to be designed to apply against enemies of the United States, for example Russia, North Korean, Iraq and Iran.

Even though Washington is not a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC), through its network of Western allies, pressures, threats and sanctions, it is able to wield the needed power to subvert the equal application of international law.

“The very legitimacy of international law is now at stake, due to the unrelenting Israeli genocide in Gaza and the failure of the international community to take a single step that could push back against Israel’s criminal war,” said Baroud, who is also is a Non-resident Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA).

Meanwhile, in a statement released 4 June, UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk issued a renewed call for an end to the sharp rise in deadly violence in the occupied West Bank since 7 October, and urged accountability for the killing of over 500 Palestinians last week by Israeli Security Forces (ISF) and settlers.

“As if the tragic events in Israel and then Gaza over the past eight months were not enough, the people of the occupied West Bank are also being subjected to day-after-day of unprecedented bloodshed. It is unfathomable that so many lives have been taken in such a wanton fashion,” the High Commissioner said.

“The killing, destruction and widespread human rights violations are unacceptable, and must cease immediately. Israel must not only adopt but enforce rules of engagement that are fully in line with applicable human rights norms and standards. Any allegation of unlawful killings must be thoroughly and independently investigated and those responsible held to account.

“Pervasive impunity for such crimes has been commonplace for far too long in the occupied West Bank. Such impunity has created an enabling environment for more and more unlawful killings by the ISF. International law must be respected and enforced, and accountability must be ensured.”

The Israeli Defense Force (ISF) has often used lethal force as a first resort against Palestinian protesters throwing stones, incendiary bottles, and firecrackers at ISF armoured vehicles, in cases where those shot clearly did not represent an imminent threat to life.

The prevalence of Palestinians who died after being shot in the upper part of the body, along with a pattern of the denial of medical assistance to those injured, suggests intent to kill in violation of the right to life, rather than a graduated application of force and an attempt to de-escalate tense situations.

In a statement released May 29, a group of UN experts said Israeli air strikes on a camp sheltering displaced civilians in Tal al-Sultan in Rafah, that have reportedly claimed at least 46 lives including 23 women, children and older persons on Sunday night. “are an outrage.”

“Harrowing images of destruction, displacement and death have emerged from Rafah, including infants torn apart and people burnt alive,” the experts said.

“Reports emerging from the ground indicate that the strikes were indiscriminate and disproportionate, with people trapped inside burning plastic tents, leading to a horrific casualty toll.”

“These barbaric attacks are a flagrant violation of international law. They are also an attack on human decency and our collective humanity,” the experts said.

At least 46 Palestinians were reportedly killed in an Israeli air strike in Rafah’s Tal al-Sultan on the night of Sunday 26 May 2024, with hundreds more treated for severe burns. On Tuesday, another attack in al-Mawasi in Western Rafah reportedly killed 21 Palestinians, of whom 13 were women.

“Recklessly targeting sites known to shelter displaced Palestinians, including women, children, persons with disabilities and older persons, seeking refuge constitutes a grave breach of the laws of war and a grim reminder of the urgent need for international action and accountability,” they said.

“Even if Israeli leaders claim now that the strikes were a ‘mistake’, they bear international legal responsibility. Calling it a mistake will not make the strikes legal, bring back those killed in Rafah or give comfort to grieving survivors,” the UN experts said.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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By Naureen Hossain
NEW YORK, Jun 5 2024 – Coming at a time of record-breaking global temperatures over the last twelve months, the UN chief calls on world leaders, including the G20 and G7 members, to commit to their climate action goals as laid out in the Paris Agreement. Experts across multiple industries are also encouraged to do their part to mitigate the impact of the climate crisis.

Today (June 5, 2024) is World Environment Day, which UN Secretary-General António Guterres marked with a special address delivered at the American Museum of Natural History. He warned that global efforts to address the climate crisis need to be strengthened, which would depend on the decisions that world leaders will take in the coming months and years.  In the lead-up to major global conferences such as the G20 and G7 summits, the United Nations General Assembly in September and COP29 this November, this time is considered critical for countries to reassess and reaffirm their nationally determined contributions and their climate action plans.

“The need for action is unprecedented but so is the opportunity—not just to deliver on climate, but on economic prosperity and sustainable development,” said Guterres. “Climate action cannot be captive to geo-political divisions.”

The Secretary-General’s special address also coincided with the release of a new report and findings from the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Annual to Decade Climate Update 2024 report. In addition to revealing the 80 percent likelihood of the global annual average temperature exceeding the 1.5 degree limit, the report also notes that the global annual average temperature may exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius limit at least once within the next five years, between 2024 and 2028. There is a high likelihood that one of these years will set a new record temperature high, which could beat 2023, the current hottest year on record.

“WMO is sounding the alarm that we will be exceeding the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency. We have already temporarily surpassed this level for individual months—and indeed, as averaged over the most recent 12-month period. However, it is important to stress that temporary breaches do not mean that the 1.5 °C goal is permanently lost because this refers to long-term warming over decades,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.

Guterres also drew from data findings from the EU-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service, which found that the highest global average temperature over the last twelve-month period (June 2023–May 2024) was the highest on record, at 1.63 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial era.

During the speech, Guterres made several key recommendations for world governments and other stakeholders, namely to slash carbon emissions, boost climate financing, and protect people and places from the extremes of climate change. He called on the G20 countries, who account for up to eighty percent of global carbon emissions, to bolster their climate action plans that would include majorly reducing global emissions. They were also called on to show what he referred to as climate solidarity by providing technical and financial support to developing countries’ efforts to meet their goals. G20 economies would not only have the means to take these measures, but they should also be able to set the standard for other countries.

Guterres also called for G20 countries to commit to reducing or ending their use of coal, oil, and gas fuels to reduce supply and demand by sixty percent by 2035. For all other countries, including developing economies, their climate action plans should also “double as investment plans,”  which will spur sustainable development and make use of renewable energy sources to meet the “soaring energy demand.”

Protecting people and places is also of key importance in Guterres’ address, as he recommended ramping up protections from climate chaos, particularly for the most vulnerable communities. Recently, this has manifested through extreme weather conditions such as heatwaves in countries across South and Southeast Asia and heavy storms in Latin America, such as Brazil. All countries will be expected to set out their climate adaptation plans, including accounting for adaptation finance, which goes towards actions to reduce the risks communities face in times of climate hazards. Guterres reiterated that developed countries should honor their commitment to double adaptation financing up to 40 billion USD a year by 2025. He also noted that the gap in adaptation finance must be addressed in COP29 this year.

Guterres took aim at the fossil fuel industry in his speech, referring to it as the “Godfather of climate chaos.” He noted that the industry takes in profits and benefits from taxpayer-subsidies that amount to trillions of dollars and have stood in the way of progress with “relentless zeal” over the years. He noted that the industry has spent far more time and money—billions, even—sowing doubt about alternate energy sources and investing as little as 2.5 percent of their capital in clean energy.

“Doubling down on fossil fuels in the 21st century, is like doubling down on horseshoes and carriage wheels in the 19th (century),” he said.

He went further to urge others to stop extending their support to the fossil fuel industry, calling on financial institutions to stop bankrolling fossil fuel companies, urging advertising and public relations companies to stop working with them to spread their influence, and even calling for countries to ban advertisements for fossil fuels.

Among these harrowing concerns and the stark facts of the immediate impact of climate change, there is still some hope. It has been emphasized that countries already possess the resources to meet the challenges brought on by climate change.

“We are living in unprecedented times, but we also have unprecedented skill in monitoring the climate and this can help inform our actions,” said Carlo Buontempo, Director of Copernicus Climate Change Service. “This string of hottest months will be remembered as comparatively cold but if we manage to stabilize the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in the very near future, we might be able to return to these “cold” temperatures by the end of the century.”

In his speech, Guterres commended those in civil society, the business sector, and activists, along with cities and regions that have advocated for or implemented measures towards environmental consciousness. “You are on the right side of history. You speak for the majority,” he said.

Guterres also noted that the United Nations would be “all in” in finding solutions and encouraging cooperation between stakeholders. This level of cooperation would only yield concrete results with full involvement and commitment to undo the damage caused by man-made climate change. “Now is the time to mobilize. Now is the time to act. Now is the time to deliver. This is our moment of truth.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

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