By Umar Manzoor Shah
SRINAGAR, Jul 15 2024 – On June 4, Ram Das, a 65-year-old farmer from India’s northern state of Haryana, was anxiously waiting for the results of the country’s general elections. It was early morning when he left his home and, along with his fellow villagers, congregated near a tea stall that had a transistor set playing the election results.

By 11 in the morning, Das had already sipped three cups of tea and smoked a few cigarettes. His anxiety was plummeting as the results hinted at a decreasing number of seats for India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). He, along with the entire hamlet, had voted against the Narendra Modi government. “The farmers are not happy at all. We wanted to teach this government a lesson, and that is what we did,” Das told Inter Press Service. 

Despite securing a third term in government, the BJP’s overall election performance was described as a “shock” to Prime Minister Narendra Modi by several media sources. The party fell short of its goal of winning 400 out of 543 seats, managing to secure only 240 seats compared to 303 in the last elections that were held in the year 2019. Opposition parties saw significant success in states with large farming populations, such as Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Maharashtra, Punjab, and West Bengal. Consequently, the BJP had to rely on the 28 cumulative seats from its allies to form the government.

An infographic of the number of seats won by India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2019 and 2024 elections for Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Punjab have the largest farming populations. The blue bars represent the 2019 elections, and the red bars represent the 2024 elections. The numbers on top of the bars indicate the number of seats won by the BJP out of the total seats available in each state. Credit: Umar Manzoor Shah/IPS

What went wrong and where?

When Narendra Modi first took office in 2014, he promised to reform the agriculture sector and double farmers’ incomes. However, government data from 2022 shows that farmers still live in squalid conditions, earning just Rs 28 ($0.34) per day.

Government data reveals that between 2018 and 2022, a staggering 53,478 farmers took their own lives, overwhelmed by mounting debt, inadequate compensation for their produce, and unpredictable weather conditions. This means 36 farmers were killing themselves every day during this period. “The numbers could be much higher than what is being projected in the government data. This could be the tip of an ice-berg. Many farmer suicides go unreported and never find place in government files,” says Abinav Sinha, a civil society activist based in Indian state of Uttar Pradesh.

In 2020, Modi’s government enacted three controversial agricultural laws without consulting farmers’ groups. This move sparked a massive year-long protest, as farmers feared the laws would lead to increased corporatization of agriculture and the elimination of state-backed protections, such as the minimum support price and the procurement of farm produce by state agencies.

The government ultimately repealed the controversial agricultural laws, but not before enforcing a severe crackdown on the protests. Authorities arrested farmers, barricaded highways to prevent them from reaching New Delhi, and deployed shotguns, pellets, and drones to disperse tear gas on unarmed protesters. As per the various farmers’ associations, over 570 farmers were killed during the protest.

In February of this year, farmers once again took to the streets, this time demanding legal guarantees for a minimum support price (MSP) for crops, among other issues. However, negotiations with government officials failed to yield any conclusive results.

This was the reason that the farmers associations across the country galvanized their efforts into political action and unanimously resolved to vote against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

June 4: The D-Day

Farmers like Das from Haryana were one amongst the thousands of other farmers who didn’t allow the BJP candidates to even enter their villages for the campaigning. “They were ruthless for us when we sought the rollback of the draconian farm laws. How on earth should we vote for them? We will not even allow them to campaign here,” Das said.

On June 4, this year, election results were announced, and the country was shocked to find the states with a considerable amount of agrarian population voting against the BJP.

In Rajasthan, where the BJP had secured a victory in the state government last December, it won 14 out of 25 seats in the recent elections, a significant drop from winning all 25 seats in 2019.

In Uttar Pradesh, a state where 65 percent of the population relies on agriculture, the BJP managed to win just 33 out of 80 seats, a sharp decline from the 62 seats it secured in 2019 and 71 in 2014.

In Haryana, known as India’s breadbasket, the BJP’s count dropped to five seats out of the 10 available, compared to winning all 10 seats in 2019. The opposition Congress claimed the remaining five seats.

In Punjab, a leading producer of rice and wheat, the BJP failed to win any seats, drawing a blank in the state.

Government Cannot Ignore Climate Change Now

Pranav Shankar, a climate change activist based in New Delhi, told IPS that the general elections in India this year have shown a considerable trend that cannot be ignored, downplayed or undermined. “The farmers have spoken out.  This is the reality. To date, the government has ignored the importance of the farming community. From now on, the government has to remain assiduous towards the farmers’ needs and take measures to tackle climate change that is wreaking havoc in the country and putting the farmers in distress,” Shankar said.

He added that more than 33 electoral officers were killed due to heat stroke during the national elections in India this year. “No one talked about them. Even the government itself seems to have forgotten about those poor souls. This is all very unprecedented,” Shankar said.

Note: This feature is published with the support of Open Society Foundations.

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By Andrew Firmin
LONDON, Jul 15 2024 – The political tide has turned in the UK – and civil society will be hoping for an end to government hostility.

The 4 July general election ended 14 years of rule by the right-wing Conservative party. The centre-left Labour party has returned to power, winning 411 out of 650 parliamentary seats.

Behind the headlines, however, there’s little reason to think the UK’s spell of political volatility is over, and the impacts of the deeply polarising 2016 Brexit referendum continue to ripple through politics.

Keir Starmer has become prime minister as a result of the UK’s most disproportionate election ever. The country’s archaic electoral system means his party won around 63 per cent of seats on just 34 per cent of the vote, up only around 1.5 per cent on its 2019 share and less than when it came second in 2017.

There was little perceptible public enthusiasm on display for Starmer and his promises of cautious reforms. But with high prices, failing public services and a housing crisis, many people wanted whatever change was available. Overwhelmingly the public mood was that the Conservative government was self-serving and out-of-touch and had to go.

Labour was far from the only beneficiary of haemorrhaging Conservative support. Smaller parties and independents took their biggest share of the vote in a century. The right-wing populist Reform UK party came third with 14.3 per cent of the vote, doing best in areas that had most strongly backed leaving the European Union, although the workings of the electoral system meant it won just five seats.

Labour’s resulting parliamentary majority is broad but shallow: it won many seats by small margins. Reform, having come second in 98 seats, can be expected to try to exploit the disarray in the Conservative Party, make as much noise as it can in parliament and hope for a breakthrough next time. Conservative politicians may well decide the lesson is to tack further right, and an alliance or merger between the two right-wing forces can’t be ruled out.

Discontent and disengagement were also indicated by a turnout of only 59.9 per cent, one of the lowest ever. There may be a several reasons: a sense Labour’s win was a foregone conclusion, and voter ID measures introduced by the last government that may have stopped 400,000 people voting. But it’s hard to escape the conclusion that at least some who stayed at home felt there was no point choosing between the parties on offer.

Time to reclaim rights

To address disaffection and stave off the threat of right-wing populism, Labour will need to show it can make a difference in addressing the UK’s economic and social malaise. One way it can signal a change and build positive partnerships to tackle problems is by respecting civic space and working with civil society. There’s plenty of room for improvement here.

Under the last government, hostility towards civil society grew and civic freedoms suffered. Last year, the UK’s civic space rating was downgraded to ‘obstructed’ by the CIVICUS Monitor, our collaborative research project that tracks the health of civic space around the world. The main reason was new laws that significantly increased restrictions on protests and expanded police powers to break them up and arrest protesters. Climate activists have been the main target.

As the outgoing government backtracked on its net-zero pledges and committed to more oil and gas extraction, campaigners increasingly embraced non-violent direct action. The government’s response was to vilify climate protesters, backed by laws that criminalise protests deemed to be noisy or disruptive. Mass arrests of protesters have become commonplace, and it’s no longer rare for people to receive jail sentences for protest-related offences. Recently, protesters against the monarchy and those demanding stronger action on Israel have faced similar treatment.

Meanwhile the outgoing government relentlessly fuelled public hostility towards migrants, particularly those crossing the English Channel in the absence of legal routes. Its ‘hostile environment’ policy led to the Windrush Scandal – in which people who’d lived legally in the UK for decades were detained and deported for want of documentation they’d never needed. More recently the government introduced its Rwanda policy, threatening to permanently remove people to the authoritarian East African state. When, in response to a civil society lawsuit, the European Court of Human Rights ruled the policy illegal because Rwanda wasn’t a safe country to send people to, the government passed a law declaring it safe, and its more right-wing politicians called for the UK to leave the court.

At the same time, the government raided its aid budget to cover the costs of hosting asylum seekers in the UK. The government merged its international development ministry into its foreign affairs ministry in 2020 and, in 2021, dropped its commitment to spend 0.7 per cent of gross national income on aid. Last year, it spent more than a quarter of its aid budget – money that should be used to help end poverty and inequality in the global south – on hosting asylum seekers in the UK.

As part of its rightward shift, the Conservative Party also backtracked on its commitments to LGBTQI+ rights, waging a culture war against trans rights, including by promising to ban gender-neutral bathrooms and prohibit discussion of gender identity in schools. The UK went from being Europe’s most LGBTQI+-friendly country to 16th. As happens every time politicians target an excluded group for vilification, hate crimes against trans people hit record levels.

This all leaves civil society with a big agenda to take to the new government. There’ve been some early encouraging signs. The government has dropped the Rwanda plan. It’s reversed an onshore wind farm ban. But there are many more advocacy asks. The best way to signal a new beginning would be to commit to respecting and repairing the space where demands can be articulated: rebuilding relationships with civil society, restoring the right to protest and reversing attacks on human rights.

Andrew Firmin is CIVICUS Editor-in-Chief, co-director and writer for CIVICUS Lens and co-author of the State of Civil Society Report.

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By Robert Kibet
NAIROBI, Jul 15 2024 – In the heart of Empash village, a fragmented community nestled in Suswa, Narok County, some 62 miles northwest of Nairobi, Naomy Kolian’s story unfolds like a gripping saga of pain, resilience, and unyielding determination.

It was here, amidst the familiar surroundings of her home, that she was subjected to female genital mutilation (FGM), a brutal tradition that left her with physical and emotional scars. This hidden trauma would linger, haunting her well into adulthood.

Here, the Maasai culture thrives on a tapestry of rich traditions and deep-seated customs. The rhythmic chants of age-old songs blend with the distant bellowing of cattle, painting a picture of pastoral tranquility. Yet, beneath this picturesque veneer lies a harrowing reality for many Maasai women, which Naomy Kolian knows all too well.

A mother of five and a fierce advocate against FGM, a practice that nearly shattered her life, Naomy is a testament to the strength of the human spirit.

Her journey began with an unlikely opportunity. Compassion International, a Christian humanitarian organization, offered her the chance to attend school in a community where educating girls is often undervalued.

She thrived in both academics and athletics, becoming one of the best runners in her primary school. But this promising future was abruptly interrupted when, at the age of 14, after her final primary school examinations, she was forced to undergo FGM—a rite of passage that would rob her of her athletic potential and much more.

“We were taken to where my mother was,” Naomy recalls, her voice tinged with a mix of pain and resilience. “There, we found several people with a cow slaughtered. When I asked what was happening, I was lied to and told that nothing was going on. My mother finally disclosed that I was to undergo the cut since all my friends had already done so.”

The following morning, Naomy was placed under the custody of elderly women inside a manyatta, a traditional mud-walled house. The ordeal that followed was nothing short of a nightmare. In the cold, early hours, she was taken outside, stripped, and doused with ice-cold water meant to numb her nerves.

“That is when I fainted,” she says, wiping away tears with the palm of her hand.

Naomy’s voice wavers as she describes the excruciating details of her mutilation. She was sat down and held to the ground by strong women. Despite her struggles, she managed to overpower them temporarily, but this only led to more brutal measures.

“They chose to tie ropes on both legs and pass them through pierced holes in the wall. Men outside held the ropes, which forced my legs apart, giving the elderly woman ample time to carry out her assignment,” she explains, recounting how she felt one leg go numb.

In the Maasai community, FGM lacks a precise method, often resulting in severe complications. Naomy continued to bleed profusely, and the women attending to her resorted to applying sugar, honey, and cold milk to the wound. When these remedies failed, they tied her legs together in a futile attempt to stop the bleeding. Desperation led them to extract almost a liter of fresh cow’s blood, which they forced her to drink, hoping it would stem the blood loss.

Naomy’s ordeal is a stark representation of the plight faced by many Maasai women, who endure such inhumane practices under the guise of cultural preservation.

Lilian Saruni, also a victim, is a mother of seven, married to an elderly man with ten wives. “I engage in the beading business to enable me to educate my children so they can get a basic education,” she says.

“My husband issued curse threats that whoever would prevent the daughters from undergoing the cut would die, including the practitioner,” she shares. With support from the area chief and clergy, Lilian managed to protect her daughter and expand her efforts to help other girls.

Using her own experience as a powerful narrative, Naomy is today one of Kenya’s most powerful and persuasive advocates for the eradication of FGM. As the founder of a grassroots organization, Eselenge Engayion, she focuses on empowering the youth and providing safe havens for girls fleeing forced knife in her native village.

“The pain I went through is fresh in my mind to date, and the worst of it is that I lost my sporting talent completely,” she confides. Yet, her resolve remains unbroken.

“Teachers in high school would punish me for not participating in the sport indicated in my certificate, mistaking my inability to participate as ignorance,” Naomy says.

Determined not to let her past define her future, Naomy persisted. “I said to myself, I should not give up. I told my father that I would proceed to college. An old man was brought home. They resisted, saying that since I had undergone the cut, I should be married. That is when I decided to fake it and got into a relationship with a young man whom I did not love. That’s where I got pregnant,” she narrates.

The fear of hospitals due to the scars from FGM compounded her struggles during childbirth. “I feared going to the hospital because of the rupture due to the scar. I had a premature birth. I asked mom what was happening and she encouraged me, saying it is usually that way. I was referred to Kijabe Hospital. I could not walk properly,” she shares.

Her second birth was equally painful, but with the support of her understanding husband, Naomy managed to pursue a certificate course in Early Childhood Development Education (EDE). She worked as a volunteer, using every opportunity to educate young children and girls on the effects of FGM.

Prof. Patrick Muia Ndavi, an associate professor of obstetrics and gynecology at the University of Nairobi, explains, “When you look at the drivers of FGM, they say it is a cultural issue, a religious issue. But even when we ask which religion supports this practice, they can’t quantify which religion prescribes this vice.”

He continues to highlight the severe harm inflicted upon girls and women, stating, “FGM violates bodily integrity and has led to the deaths of some women and girls. In Kenya, FGM can cause fistula, which affects the communication between the bladder and the birth canal. Young mothers forced to undergo the cut often have children who develop cerebral palsy.”

Muia underscores the chronic, lifelong complications of FGM, which span medical and mental health issues. “Women and girls suffer from anxiety and fear of intimacy, especially where the worst forms of the practice are carried out,” he notes.

Jane Soipan Letooya, a poet from the Keekonyoike location, uses her talent to speak out against FGM. “FGM, taken as a cultural practice, makes it rampant in our community. The practice has cut off the future of many girls,” she asserts. Jane started her campaign in 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, motivated by the fear and loss experienced by her classmates.

Sharon Saruni, a 23-year-old student, was rescued by her mother, Lilian Saruni, from her father’s aggression.

“There is a need for a common discussion among stakeholders to dig into the root cause of this rampant vice among the Maasai community,” Sharon insists. She urges fellow girls to speak out without fear, highlighting the low self-esteem and shattered dreams caused by FGM.

According to the Somaliland Ministry of Social Affairs and a 2020 UNFPA report, Somaliland has the world’s highest recorded prevalence of FGM, with about 98 percent of women aged 15-49 having undergone FGM.

Article 8 of the Somaliland Constitution guarantees women the right to be free from violence. However, there is currently no viable anti-FGM policy approved. The Ministry of Social Affairs, in collaboration with relevant stakeholders, is drafting an anti-FGM policy that has been submitted to the cabinet for approval.

“This policy will support and back up the fight against FGM in Somaliland. Without the policy, there is no reference to take action against perpetrators. This policy will significantly enhance our interventions in ending FGM,” Yahye Mohamed, a TGG-ALM team lead, also working for Action Aid Somaliland, told IPS in a virtual interview.

The ongoing conflict in the east and the drought have disrupted the speed of the fight against FGM and the approval of the policy.

Jacinta Muteshi, the regional team leader of The Girl Generation-Support to the Africa-Led Movement dubbed TGG-ALM, noted that the prevalence rates remain very high in many Eastern African countries.

“We have been at the forefront in supporting those leading the fight against FGM in the East Africa region,” she told IPS in an interview.

TGG-ALM is a consortium led by Options Consultancy Services, which includes Amref Health Africa, Action Aid, the Orchid Project, the Africa Coordination Centre for the Abandonment of FGM/C, and the University of Portsmouth. The consortium is actively working in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somaliland for the East Africa region and Senegal to combat FGM/C.

At a recent AU conference in Tanzania, government representatives highlighted the importance of collaborative actions, emphasizing the need to harmonize laws and penalties, establish hotlines for at-risk individuals, and standardize definitions of FGM to unify their approaches.

“If you look at the African continent, for the 28 countries where the prevalence is high, we are talking about 55 million girls experiencing FGM. Early and forced marriages are often aligned with these prevalence rates,” Muteshi told IPS.

In Kenya, there is a strong stance against FGM by the leadership in terms of policy, resources, and public statements. In Senegal, Amref Health Africa and Action Aid have engaged with parliamentarians to stress the significance of harmonizing regional laws for eradicating FGM/C.

“Many countries have laws, but their inconsistency in enforcing them or allocating resources to make those efforts effective is a concern. Hence, there is a need to bring parliamentarians together to highlight these issues,” Muteshi added.

The recent UNICEF report titled Female Genital Mutilation: A Global Concern-2024 says though the pace of progress is picking up, the rate of decline would need to be 27 times faster to meet the target of eliminating female genital mutilation by 2030, in line with the UN SDG on eliminating harmful practices by 2030.

Saruni Reson, a senior chief in Enosupukia, Narok East sub-county, has lived in Oloserian for five decades. A former teacher, he began fighting against FGM by setting an example with his daughters.

“As a family, we have saved 59 girls from undergoing the cut, and we are on a mission to spread the message against this vice,” he states.

Reson highlights the challenges faced in the fight against FGM. “Distance is one of the main challenges, especially when it comes to mobility coupled with the locality’s terrain when it rains,” he says. Despite these obstacles, the community’s security model, including village elders and local police, has been instrumental in rescuing girls.

“The government’s vision to eradicate the cut by 2030 will be achieved through our assistance, but we target to achieve this before that time,” he affirms. Reson calls for the establishment of safe homes near educational facilities, providing girls with a refuge and a chance for a better future.

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By Sanjay Srivastava, Soomi Hong and Shashwat Avi
BANGKOK, Thailand, Jul 15 2024 – Scientific assessments reveal that the Third Pole (TP), encompassing the vast glaciated mountain systems of Asia, is warming at an alarming rate of over 0.3 ºC per decade, surpassing the global average.

The TP hosts the largest ice mass outside the polar region, spanning the Tibetan plateau and surrounding ranges: Pamir-Hindu Kush, Hengduan, Tienshan, Qilian, and the Himalayas. Rapid changes in the cryosphere and melting of glaciers significantly impact high-mountain ecosystems and downstream regions.

As the water tower of Asia, the TP is vital for socio-economic stability through its freshwater resources. Warming has caused considerable variations in lakes, inland water bodies and the runoff into the river basins. Additionally, glacial disasters such as ice collapse and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have become more frequent and dangerous in recent years.

Emerging Third Pole risk hotspots

While the risks emanating from warming are quite diverse in the different geographies of the TP, glacier melting has been intensifying, with more intensive melting along the Himalayas resulting in emergence of multi-hazard risk hotspots.

Recent research reveals that the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) glaciers disappeared 65 per cent faster in 2011–2020 compared with the previous decade.

Future scenarios project that glaciers in the HKH could lose up to 80 per cent of their current volume by the end of the century, with snow cover projected to fall by up to a quarter under high emissions scenarios.

This may drastically reduce freshwater for major Asian rivers including the Yangtze, Indus, Ganges, Amu Darya and Helmand. The decreasing extent of frozen ground (permafrost) will lead to more landslides and problems for infrastructure at high elevation.

The changes observed in Asian high mountain cryosphere to date signal grave consequences for human life and nature. A recent example is a cloudburst over Lhonak Lake in North Sikkim, which triggered a devastating GLOF in the Teesta river basin.

This event resulted in loss of life, the destruction of the 1,200 MW Urja Hydroelectric Chungthang dam and extensive downstream damage, illustrating how disaster risks can compound and cascade in the fragile mountainous context of the Himalayas.

GLOFs pose a threat to mountainous communities across Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan; from the Himalayas to the Caucasus, Pamir, Hindu Kush-Karakoram and Tien Shan Mountain ranges.

While manifestations of warming Asian glaciers are already visible, they are going to have devastating consequences for water and food security, energy sources, ecosystems, and the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions across Asia, many of which will be beyond the limits of adaptation.

Science led TP regional co-operation mechanisms for weather and climate services

Given the transboundary nature of climate threats confronting the Asian glaciers, a stronger regional collaboration and knowledge exchange is required to understand the changing riskscape and develop risk reduction capabilities of the countries in diverse geographies of the TP.

The WMO’s Regional Climate Outlook Forums and Regional Climate Centres anchor unique regional and subregional co-operation architecture. Following this modality, the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the TP region have establish the Third Pole Regional Climate Centre Network (TPRCC-Network) to facilitate collaboration.

To capture the specificities of riskscape across TP geographies, the TPRCC-Network comprises three geographical nodes, with thematic responsibilities for mandatory functions for the entire region. While China leads the northern and eastern nodes, India and Pakistan are leading southern and western nodes of the TP. The Beijing Climate Centre provides overall co-ordination. ESCAP along with ICIMOD, TPE, GCW, GEWEX and MRI are contributing partners of the TPRCC-Network.

In early June, the TPRCC-Network issued its first ever seasonal outlook for the summer season June to September 2024 for a high mountain TP region. It highlights that surface air temperatures are likely to be above normal over most parts of the TP region, especially over the Karakoram.

The southwestern and northwestern parts are likely to experience normal to above normal surface air temperatures. Precipitation is likely to be near or above the climatological normal over most parts of the TP region, however, it is likely to be below normal in the western and southeastern parts of the TP region.

Impact forecasting with teleconnection approach in the TP

Weather forecasting relies on the interconnectedness of atmospheric and ocean conditions all the way across the globe, enabling predictions weeks to months in advance. Teleconnections denote significant links between weather phenomena across distant locations, often involving climate patterns spanning thousands of miles.

The TP is characterized by hazards of glaciers with their potential exposure, vulnerability and impacts zones which are thousands of kilometers aways across the different nodes. The impact assessment needs to be based on understanding the teleconnections of glaciers and their potential impact zones.

With the understanding of these unique teleconnections in the TP, ESCAP is making efforts to translate the seasonal outlook in terms of impact scenarios highlighting potentially at-risk communities, sectors and systems of the TP region. ESCAP has developed automation impact-based forecasting tool to help guide risk informed decision making and fill knowledge gaps.

Source of Diagram: ESCAP

Support to adaptation at altitude

Several initiatives aim to accelerate adaptation actions in the mountains, including the multi-country initiative such as the Adaptation at Altitude. These initiatives enhance resilience and adaptive capacity by improving and transferring knowledge through science–policy platforms, informing decision-making in national, regional and global policy processes.

Adaptation and resilience in the Third Pole context hinge on understanding glacier dynamics and their impact on water and ecosystems. The TRCC-Network is an important initiative to support adaptation at altitude.

Sanjay Srivastava is Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP; Soomi Hong is Associate Economic Affairs Officer, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP; Shashwat Avi is Consultant, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP.

The article was also co-authored by Naina Tanwar, Consultant, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP and Akshaya Kumar, Intern, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP

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