By Stephanie Musho
NAIROBI, Jul 23 2024 – The resolution to the ongoing Kenyan crisis that has since morphed into an anti-government movement is not as simplistic as the withdrawal of the punitive Finance Bill 2024 as has lately been suggested by the country’s embattled President; who vacillates between seeking dialogue with – and threatening the youth of Kenya, against their peaceful quest for the realization of their constitutional rights.

One month after the unprecedented storming of Kenya’s national Parliament, legislators will today return to the August House following a three week recess where they are expected to consider a Memorandum on the Finance Bill from President Ruto rejecting  all clauses of the contentious proposed law.

Additionally, they will debate a Supplementary Budget and the Division of Revenue Bill that was also rejected. This plunges the country into a legal quagmire, with a prospective vote on a needed statutory framework to enable the government to effectuate its annual fiscal plans. It is crucial that the President respects institutional independence and refrains from any attempts to influence the process; allowing the legislature to freely represent their electorate in decision making processes.

The President recently seemed to be responsive to the demands of the sovereign people by  dismissing his entire cabinet, who are largely considered unqualified and partially responsible for the derailment of the country’s political and socio-economic development trajectory.

In fact, a year ago, he had put them on notice for their incompetency,  having them sign performance contracts. Nonetheless, three days ago, he reappointed 6 of these fired individuals, in a selfish move to maintain political mileage at the expense of the country.

This re-infuriated Kenyan youth and galvanized public sentiment on his untrustworthiness as a leader. There is opportunity for Parliament to reject his nominees and for the President to embark on a new age, gender, and ethnic inclusive, and proficiency-based approach in the reconstitution of his cabinet.

Currently, Kenya is spending 68% of its gross domestic product (GDP) towards servicing its financial liabilities. A recent Christian Aid report  highlights that Kenya could direct 3.7 billion US dollars towards health and education, if it did not have to pay external debt

The proposed law that catalyzed current events in the country had sought to bridge a $2.7 billion national budget deficit by increasing taxes on an already financially burdened citizenry. Yet, the government has been financially wasteful, contravening the requirement of prudent and responsible and prudent spending of public funds.

Consider that in 20 months, the President has been on 62 visits to 38 countries. The costs of these trips include his presidential delegation and their daily allowances. This is exclusive of other travels by state officials. Additionally, the State House was renovated at a cost of $6.8  million US dollars.  It could then be argued that the problem is not a revenue crunch but rather one of expenditure. What is more, is that there has been a lack of transparency in public financing, creating speculation around the regime’s ravenous appetite for both legal and odious debt.

Ironically, William Ruto – once a village chicken seller, campaigned on a bottom-up economic model, promising to create an enabling business environment that favors ‘hustlers’ – or common citizens, who have long contended with unfavorable employment, business and investment opportunities.

These have mainly been a preserve of the elite who originate from or have strong ties to political dynasties that have ruled the country since its independence. This prospective shift was exciting for Kenyans who had for decades desired change.  Nonetheless, the President has been unable to fulfil his campaign promises further disgruntling the young citizenry that makes up the majority of the population.

What is worse, is that those among his ranks have treated Kenyans with contempt and hubris creating a utopic and false sense of impunity, violating laws on leadership and integrity as provided for in Chapter 6 of the Constitution of Kenya.

Currently, Kenya is spending 68% of its gross domestic product (GDP) towards servicing its financial liabilities. A recent Christian Aid report  highlights that Kenya could direct 3.7 billion US dollars towards health and education, if it did not have to pay external debt.

This figure is 1 billion USD more than the current budgetary shortfall that could address the ailing social sectors that are plagued with worker strikes and the ultimate suffering of ailing patients and school going children.

While it is idealistic to advance debt-free economies given the global poly crisis among other economic and political factors, it provides an aspiration that could guide our development blueprints, particularly for African countries that are resource-rich and have prospects to close these disparities and unlock new financing for the advancement of the continent.

President Ruto leverages international platforms to advance an economic agenda under his foreign policy. This includes the Group of 7 (G7) and the African Union which recently appointed him as their champion of global institutional reforms to lead among other efforts, an African Alliance of Multilateral Financial Institutions. He also co-leads an international tax taskforce on driving development funded by the European Climate Foundation.

These efforts to overhaul an unjust and racist international financial system that trap low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), plunging them into debt distress are overdue. Nonetheless, the President does not inspire confidence in these pursuits as his foreign external facing positions do not reflect his domestic positions – and inversely so.

It is therefore difficult to rally behind his efforts on debt restructure, cancellations and reform, when taxpayer money is seemingly being channeled to sustaining the extravagant lifestyles of political elites at the expense of a citizenry that was already contending with unbearable economic hardships.

Over the past weeks, Ruto has deployed state machinery to quell peaceful protesters and media coverage of the civil unrest. These have manifested through enforced disappearances, arbitrary arrests, police brutality and extra-judicial killings. They even unsuccessfully tried to illegally ban protests in Nairobi.

Even so, of the transformative changes that the 2010 Constitution brought was on reforming the Kenya Police Force – an inheritance of the imperialists, into the Kenya Police Service that is to be people-centered.

Subsequently, through the National Police Commission Act the police must maintain the highest standard of professionalism and discipline. Further,  they must comply with constitutional standards of human rights and fundamental freedoms in the performance of their duties.  Despite this, the Police Service has largely only shifted in name and not in practice as it continues to suffer from a 61-year-old colonial hangover that seeks to hold on to limitless power and impunity.

While it is true that the peaceful protests have in the past been infiltrated by criminals who have caused destruction of property and caused harm to innocent Kenyans, the essence of providing the police with a protest notice is to ensure the protection of protesters and the maintenance of law and order.

Moreover, there is a National Intelligence Service that is equipped and financed to ensure that verifiable threats to the Republic are legally mitigated. It is then ironic that the government claims to be overpowered by youthful protesters carrying phones, placards and water bottles on the streets, while they respond with violence, chemical warfare and guns.

The President must use this historical turning point to bridge the trust deficit that he has created.  This should be through the institutionalization of mechanisms for the respect for the rule of law; that will clamp down on the litany of corruption and inept leadership in his administration including limiting the powers of the police.

Ultimately, he must renew fractured social systems and spur economic prosperity.  Till then, the Zoomers will sustain disruptive pressure on his government until they finally succeed in voting him out of office in the next election; making him a one-term President – the first in the history of Kenya.

Stephanie Musho is a human rights lawyer and a Senior New Voices Fellow at the Aspen Institute 

By Kevin Humphrey
JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, Jul 23 2024 – Heading into the traditional dry period of winter in southern Africa, there was significant consternation due to the drastically below average rainfall the region has been experiencing since January 2024.

Countries, including Botswana, Mozambique, Angola, Malawi, Zimbabwe and Zambia, have only received less than 20 percent of the rainfall that they usually receive in the month of February. The driest January/February period in 40 years, according to a report issued by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Agriculture in these large areas of southern Africa has been seriously affected, as farming is rainfall-dependent with no access to irrigation systems.

Edward Phiri cooking mealies (maize) on an open fire at his vegetable stall in a busy street in Windsor West, Johannesburg. Edward, mentioned how expensive mealies had become in the last few months and that he was the only vegetable stall selling cooked maize. All the other stalls (at least 15 in a small but densely populated area) had closed down due to high costs. Credit: Kevin Humphrey/IPS

Machinda Marongwe, programme director of Oxfam Southern Africa, said the region is “in crisis” and called on donors to “immediately release resources” to prevent an “unimaginable humanitarian situation.”

“With all these countries facing multiple crises simultaneously, the urgency cannot be overstated,” Marongwe said.

In southern Africa, a region Oxfam describes as a “climate disaster hotspot,” El Nino, the climate pattern that originates along the equator in the Pacific Ocean, has severely influenced the weather in the region. A feature of El Nino is that it brings high temperatures and low rainfall to southern Africa. This dries out the ground, causing floods when it does rain.

Professor Jasper Knight of the School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies at Wits University spoke to IPS about the current extreme weather conditions.

A prolonged dry spell in southern Africa in early 2024 scorched crops and threatened food security for millions of people. The ongoing El Nino, which altered rainfall patterns during the growing season, has played a significant role in fueling the drought. Credit: NASA

“We are in an oscillating period of El Nino, and this causes variability in regional rainfall across southern Africa. Some parts of the region are very dry and have experienced heat waves; parts of southern Lesotho are currently in a crisis state of drought, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFRC),” says Knight.

“But this water crisis isn’t just about rainfall; it is also about managing water more effectively when it is already scarce. The water infrastructure in southern Africa is not fit for purpose and this makes the situation worse. Developing more resilient infrastructure will help buffer some of the negative effects of rainfall variability. This in turn will help society cope with drought events.”

In addition to the problem of raising crops, which has led to very real risks of food insecurity, a lack of water has ushered in widespread outbreaks of cholera. The rainy season misfired and became a drought and the fact that the next wet season is months away increases fears for the region as a whole in terms of the provision of food and the effects on people’s lives economically and in terms of dangerous health threats.

According to the Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN), southern Africa is in the grip of an urgent crisis.

FANRPAN stated in a recent media briefing that “the situation is dire and demands immediate attention. Widespread crop failure looms in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Livestock are dying at alarming rates due to a lack of water and vegetation.

“The movement of desperate people and animals is spreading diseases, including those transmissible to humans.”

A drought disaster was declared in Zambia on February 29 and Malawi’s president followed suit on March 23—for the fourth year in a row that weather conditions have led the country to do this. 

The World Food Programme (WFP) said El Niño was “exacerbating the devastating effects of the climate crisis in Malawi.” Zimbabwe joined them in early April.

Reuters reported Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa as saying, “More than 2.7 million people in the country will go hungry this year and more than USD 2 billion in aid is required for the country’s national response.”

Joe Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), spoke to IPS.

“This year’s El Nino-related production shortfalls are partially offset by larger carrying stocks following large maize crops in 2022 and 2023.  Poor crops have already resulted in increased imports in countries like Zimbabwe. Exports are expected to fall as stocks tighten in the region. The coming La Niña will hopefully bring needed precipitation to the region later this year, which should mean that the drought-related shortages are relatively short-lived.”

After heating up the eastern Pacific Ocean for about a year, El Niño finally died out in May 2024. As of July 2024, the eastern Pacific was in a neutral phase, but the reprieve may be short-lived. Credit: NASA

This hopeful forecast is also mentioned in a blog published, on April 10, 2024, by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Entitled “Southern Africa drought: Impacts on maize Production,” Joseph Glauber and Weston Anderson wrote: “Unlike 2014 to 2016, when key producer-exporter South Africa suffered back-to-back droughts, this year’s drought follows a year of good harvest and stock building. Larger beginning stocks will help buffer the impact of the current drought. However, supplies from outside the region will be necessary to meet consumption needs, and exports will likely decline, particularly to markets outside of Southern Africa.”

Drought and the attendant extreme hardships that it causes are undoubtedly creating havoc in the region. Hopefully, food stocks from countries like South Africa will go some way to alleviating this crisis and that this coming spring, there will be ample rain and bumper crops.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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IPS UN Bureau, IPS UN Bureau Report, Botswana, Mozambique, Angola, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Zambia

By Andrew Firmin
LONDON, Jul 23 2024 – Kenya’s President William Ruto has withdrawn the tax-increasing Finance Bill that sparked mass protests. He has sacked his cabinet and the head of the police has resigned. But the anger many feel hasn’t gone away, and protests continue.

The protests have brought Kenya’s Gen Z onto the political stage, with young people – over 65 per cent of the population – at the forefront. Since the protests began, they’ve made full use of social media to share views, explain the impact of proposed changes, organise protests and raise funds to help those injured or arrested.

These protests have been different to those in the past, much more organic than previous opposition-organised demonstrations. The movement has brought people together across the ethnic lines politicians have so often exploited in the past.

People have protested even in the knowledge that security force violence is guaranteed. At least 50 people have died so far. As protests have continued, people have increasingly demanded accountability for the killings and the many other acts of state violence.

Out-of-touch elite

The Finance Bill would have imposed a levy on a range of everyday essentials such as bread, and taxes on internet use, mobile phones and money transfer services. Women would have been further hit by an increase in tax on menstrual products. For many, this was simply too much to bear in a context of high youth unemployment and rising costs.

The tax increases were among conditions demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in return for a US$3.9 billion package, along with the IMF’s usual prescription of spending cuts and privatisation that generally hit the poorest people hardest.

Ruto has continued to blame his predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta, for lavish spending on grand projects. But Ruto was Kenyatta’s vice president, and only broke with his long-time ally after he wasn’t chosen as his party’s next presidential candidate.

To protesters, Ruto is as out of touch as the presidents before him. Opponents accuse him of trying to boost his presence on the world stage, including by offering to have Kenya lead an international policing mission to violence-torn Haiti, rather than addressing domestic problems. They see him as too willing to meet the demands of US-dominated financial institutions such as the IMF rather than stand up for Kenyans.

Problems such as corruption and patronage have run through multiple governments. Politicians are accused of enjoying lavish lifestyles insulated from people’s everyday problems. Kenya’s members of parliament are proportionally the second-highest paid in the world, earning 76 times average per capita GDP. Even so, corruption allegations are rife.

Ruto’s administration attempted to create another layer of government jobs a court ruled the move unconstitutional. He created new staffed offices for the first lady, deputy first lady and prime ministerial spouse, a decision dropped due to the protests. The proposed budget was filled with such examples of the government planning to spend more on itself.

Broken promises and state violence

For many, the sense of betrayal is heightened because when Ruto won an unexpected and narrow election victory in 2022, it was on a platform of being the champion of struggling people, promising to tackle the high cost of living. But costs kept increasing, and Ruto quickly reneged on promises to stop electricity price rises. He axed subsidies on energy, fuel and maize flour. The government’s 2023 Finance Act included a raft of new taxes and levies.

These measures sparked opposition-organised protests, and the reaction was state violence that left six people dead. The pattern is consistent. Kenyan security forces seem to know no response to protest other than violence.

On 25 June, the worst day of violence in the 2024 protests, security forces fired live ammunition at protesters, killing several, including some reportedly targeted by police snipers perched atop buildings. They’ve also used rubber bullets, teargas and water cannon, including against media and medical personnel. Protest leaders and social media influencers have been targeted for abduction and arrest.

🇰🇪We call for the immediate release of peaceful #protesters violently repressed and unlawfully detained for opposing a controversial #FinanceBill. The Kenyan authorities must uphold citizens’ right to peaceful assembly guaranteed by the national constitution. #Kenyaprotests pic.twitter.com/pPW1m7P1Xc

— CIVICUS (@CIVICUSalliance) June 21, 2024

On 25 June, some protesters briefly attempted to storm parliament and started fires, but there have been accusations that politicians have paid people to infiltrate the protest movement and instigate acts of violence to try to justify security force brutality. Media providing live coverage of protests have reported receiving threats from the authorities telling them to shut down and internet access has been disrupted. Influencers have had their accounts suspended.

Although Ruto eventually pledged to take action where there is video evidence of police violence, he’s also been criticised for saying little about protest deaths and previously praised police actions. He accused ‘organised criminals’ of hijacking the protests and called the attempt to storm parliament ‘treasonous’.

Politicians have repeatedly smeared civil society organisations, claiming they’re being used by foreign powers to fund protests. Ruto, without any evidence, has accused the US-based Ford Foundation of helping finance unrest.

Demands for change

Over a month on, protests demanding Ruto’s resignation continue. It’s not just about the economy, and it’s not just about Ruto. It’s about the rejection of a whole political class and its way of governing. Trust in the institutions of government is very low.

Dialogue has been promised, but many feel it will be superficial. The government’s response to the protests should be to listen and consult deeply – and then change. People have shown they have power. They’ve shown that a system where they elect a political elite every few years to make decisions for them isn’t enough. They’ve shown they want something better.

Andrew Firmin is CIVICUS Editor-in-Chief, co-director and writer for CIVICUS Lens and co-author of the State of Civil Society Report.

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By Daryl G. Kimball
WASHINGTON DC, Jul 23 2024 – Today, we are facing a growing and unprecedented array of nuclear weapons dangers. At the same time, this year’s presidential election is also unprecedented, unpredictable, and extremely consequential.

History shows that U.S. presidential leadership is one of the most important factors determining whether the nuclear danger will rise or fall. Perhaps the most fundamental responsibility of a U.S. president, who has the sole authority to order the use of nuclear weapons, is to avoid events that could lead to a nuclear war.

Unfortunately, mainstream campaign news coverage has paid scant attention to how the Republican nominee, Donald Trump, and the Democratic Party nominee plan to address one of, if not the, most serious threats to U.S. and international security. That needs to change.

Given what is at stake, the candidates’ approaches to the nuclear weapons threat deserve more scrutiny.

The Arms Control Association (ACA) and Arms Control Today will, in our capacity as a nonpartisan public education organization, be working hard to highlight the nuclear weapons challenges that U.S. presidential and congressional candidates must responsibly address.

American voters are increasingly aware and, according to recent polling, deeply concerned about nuclear weapons dangers. A 2024 national opinion survey found that a majority of Americans believe that nuclear weapons make the world more dangerous. Overall, just 13 percent think nuclear weapons are making the world a safer place, while 63 percent think the opposite, and 14 percent say neither.

Another challenge: unless the next U.S. president can productively engage Russia and China on nuclear risk reduction and arms control measures, we could see all three states engaging in an unconstrained and very dangerous nuclear arms race.

Ominously, some congressional leaders and members of the nuclear weapons establishment are already proposing a major buildup of deployed U.S. nuclear forces for the first time in more than three decades.

The Heritage Foundation, in its now infamous Project 2025 report, calls for ramping up the U.S. nuclear modernization program by adding more nuclear warheads to missiles, fielding more nuclear-capable bombers, and deploying nuclear-armed cruise missiles at sea.

As I wrote in the lead article of the July/August issue of Arms Control Today, such an expansion would be unnecessary, counterproductive, and prohibitively expensive. More nuclear weapons will not enhance deterrence capabilities or improve U.S. security. Nuclear arms control offers the most effective, durable, and responsible path to reduce the number, role, and risks of nuclear weapons.

Another public opinion survey conducted by the polling company IPSOS in the fall of 2023 shows that the next president would have strong U.S. popular support for nuclear arms control efforts with Russia and China. The poll indicated that 86% of respondents support nuclear arms control with Russia, with only 14% opposed; it also showed 88% support arms control with China, with only 12% opposed.

Daryl G. Kimball is Executive Director, Arms Control Association, Washington DC

Source: Arms Control Today