By Catherine Wilson
NOUMEA, New Caledonia , Jul 25 2024 – New Caledonia, a French overseas territory of about 290,000 people in the southwest Pacific, is facing a challenging recovery from weeks of civil unrest that erupted in mid-May, leaving an aftermath of destruction and political turmoil.

A vote by the French Parliament to change the territory’s electoral roll in favor of pro-France loyalists unleashed anger and clashes across the islands between police and pro-independence supporters, most of whom are indigenous Kanaks.

But, at the heart of the political grievances of Kanaks, who comprise about 40 percent of the population, are their experiences over more than a century and a half of entrenched inequality, compared to the non-Kanak population. This includes disparities in educational outcomes and high unemployment.

“Many people do not finish school and don’t have qualifications or diplomas. Many families do not have the money and cannot afford to send their children to school,” Stelios, a young Kanak father who lives in the capital, Noumea, told IPS. “Although within families, people help to support each other.”

New Caledonia, which has large nickel reserves, has a robust economy with a gross domestic product (GDP) of USD 9.62 billion in 2022, compared to USD 1.06 billion in neighboring Vanuatu and USD 4.9 billion in Fiji.  But there is a substantial gap in incomes and standards of living between the indigenous and long-term non-Kanak settlers. Poverty and unemployment are major issues for Kanaks who live in remote rural communities and informal urban settlements on the outskirts of the capital, Noumea.  While the overall poverty rate is 19.1 percent in New Caledonia, it rises to 45.8 percent in the Loyalty Islands Province, where most of the residents are Kanaks.

In Noumea’s city park, a young child stands between the statues of Pro-France politician, Jacques Lafleur, and pro-Independence Kanak leader, Jean-Marie Tjibaou, performing a handshake at the signing of the 1988 Matignon Accords in New Caledonia. Credit: Catherine Wilson/IPS

Eddie Wayuone Wadrawane, an Associate Lecturer and educational sciences expert at the University of New Caledonia, reports that there is a direct connection between the educational gap for Kanaks and their challenges to finding secure employment. While the unemployment rate for people under the age of 30 in the territory is 28.3 percent, the rate rises to 41.3 percent for those without a qualifying degree.

Kanaks, the indigenous islanders, have lived under some form of French governance since the mid-nineteenth century, when the islands became a colony. After World War II, New Caledonia was granted the status of an ‘overseas territory’ with greater recognition of citizenship and indigenous rights.

But a long history of poverty, loss of land to colonial authorities, forced removal onto reservations and marginalization from political participation triggered numerous Kanak uprisings over decades, culminating in a major outbreak of conflict with French authorities in the 1980s. The negotiations that followed the hostilities led to two agreements between the French Government and local leaders. The Matignon Accord in 1988 and Noumea Accord, signed in 1998, pledged, among other provisions, to address the socioeconomic disparities for the Kanak population, such as lack of access to education, and lack of consultation in governance and political processes.

Public services and economic opportunities are concentrated in the South Province, which includes the capital, Noumea. But there have been gains during the last twenty years with government efforts to improve infrastructure and access to services, such as education, in the more undeveloped North and Loyalty Islands Provinces, where the majority of Kanaks live. The number of Kanak graduates from universities and similar tertiary institutions rose from 99 in 1989 to 3,200 in 2014.  But significant disparities remain and it is reported that only 8 percent of Kanaks possessed a university degree in 2019.

“A major part of the philosophy of the Matignon and Noumea Accords was the notion that New Caledonia was not ready for independence because there were no Kanak people in middle or high-level management or in the professions,” Dr David Small, Senior Lecturer at Above the Bar School of Educational Studies and Leadership at New Zealand’s University of Canterbury, told IPS.

But the French education system “is highly selective and there are so many ways that Kanak people can slip out of it. Kanak people are also attuned to and highly critical of the colonial nature of education in New Caledonia,” he continued.

During the Pro-Independence protests in May across New Caledonia against the French Government’s electoral reforms in the territory, a large proportion of people demonstrating on the streets were youths aged 15–25 years. They were venting anger not just at the electoral changes but at the hardships and inequalities that have marked their lives. Patience among the younger generation is running out and they are no longer willing to wait indefinitely for the promises of better lives and opportunities to become a reality.

‘Schooling can play a major role to give those youth [who are disenfranchised] new perspectives and bring about societal reforms in general,’ Wadrawane claims. Yet, Dr Small says that many Kanak youths are losing faith in the idea of New Caledonian society being a meritocracy and, hence, also the ability of education to enable success and achievement in employment and life.

But Stelios is one of those who persisted at school and completed secondary education, receiving the Baccalaureate certificate.

“And I have a job. I work at a school, assisting staff,” he said. He is also the father of three young children, all under the age of 7, and is adamant that they will be educated too.

Education experts, such as Wadrawane, advocate that further retaining indigenous students in the education system also requires incorporating Kanak culture and languages into the curricula.

“At present, the [school] curricula appeal more to students from metropolitan France and less so for those from the French overseas territories,” Wadrawane writes. He believes that “greater cultural awareness of youth in primary and secondary education is a philosophical, social and educational necessity” to reducing inequalities and enhancing their citizenship.

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By Mario Osava
BELÉM, Brazil, Jul 25 2024 – Hotels and other amenities may be lacking for participants at the 30th Conference of the Parties on Climate Change (COP30), in this northern Brazilian city in late 2025, but the bottom line is they will have a unique experience in the Amazon.

Discussing the Amazon in the Amazon itself distinguishes COP30 from its predecessors and contributes to more objective talks on the global climate crisis and to the resolution of long-standing demands of Belém, a true Amazon capital, according to Elizabete Grunvald, president of the Pará Business Association (ACP).

Belém is the capital of the state of Pará, in the eastern Brazilian Amazon.“No city, with the exception of megacities like New York or Tokyo, has the infrastructure for events like the COPs.”: Elizabete Grunvald.

“The conference is an opportunity to unblock many projects that have been stalled for decades in the city,” Grunvald told IPS in an interview. As an example, she pointed to the luxury hotel that will emerge from the adaptation of an 18-storey building near the port, which served as the headquarters of the Federal Revenue Bureau until it burned down in 2012.

Twelve years later, the national government ceded the property to the state of Pará, which gave it in concession to the private sector for conversion into a hotel. COP30 has brought about drainage initiatives, the widening and repair of streets, the construction of urban parks and a large convention centre.

But the new hotel, with 255 rooms, a 230 square-metre presidential suite and six smaller special suites, will do little to reduce the city’s hotel shortage.

“Belém has 18,000 hotel beds, we would need another 30,000,” says Grunvald, who believes the estimation of 80,000 COP30 participants coming to the city is an exaggeration. She expects 60,000, nothing comparable to the almost 100,000 who attended the Dubai COP28 in 2023.

Elizabete Grunvald, president of the Pará Business Association, predicts Belém will have a positive transformation with the influx of investment and international tourists from the COP30. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

Three cruise ships will serve as hotels, with a capacity of 7,000 to 8,000 guests. Three more ships could be added, according to the ACP president. For this purpose, the Guajará Bay, in western Belém and gateway to the Atlantic, will be dredged.

Campaigns will encourage residents, including wealthy mansion owners, to host or rent their homes to COP30 visitors. “They will earn dollars or euros and will be able to enjoy a pleasant holiday,” Grunvald argued.

Schools and other public buildings will be made available to participants on a budget. Schools will be on holiday during the conference and civil servants will telecommute to alleviate urban mobility.

The port of Belém, in Guajará Bay on the Atlantic, where at least three cruise ships will be anchored to serve as hotels for more than 7,000 participants in the climate summit in late 2025. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

A park for COP30

The official conference, organised by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), will take place in the City Park, currently under construction, which will include an airport and an area of 560,000 square metres that will house two convention centres, as well as other gastronomy and culture hubs, with theatres and museums, including one for aircraft.

It is the main urban project, along with 12 others, being developed by the mayor’s office and the government of the state of Pará. In all, investments will amount to the equivalent of US$750 million dollars.

Grunvald, who oversees the preparations for the mega climate event and mobilises the business community, is optimistic about what COP30 could represent for the development of Belém and the Amazon. It will attract investment and put the city on the global tourism route, she anticipates.

“No city, with the exception of megacities like New York or Tokyo, has the infrastructure for events like the COPs. But the shortcomings and failures do not erase the impression of visiting the Amazon, the contact with the peculiar goods and culture, different from the rest of the world. Participants will become our advocates,” Grunvald confided.

Two geographers and two urban planners were on the panel that debated Belém’s dilemmas on the road to the climate summit in 2025. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

She personifies the transformation the capital of Pará is going through, being the first woman to preside over the ACP, founded in 1819 as the second business association in Brazil, after that of the northeastern state of Bahia.

Although having the ‘business’ adjective in its name, it is a unique multi-sectoral guild, which also includes industry, services and even water business. Hence its broad interests in the climate conference.

COP30 also confronts Belém and its 1.3 million inhabitants with its climate adversity. It will be the second hottest city in the world by 2050, with 222 days of dangerous temperatures per year, with more than 32 degrees Celsius or 89.6 degrees Fahrenheit, predicted Carbon Plan, a US non-governmental organisation.

Only Pekanbaru, Indonesia, will surpass it, with 344 days of extreme heat. In third place, with 189 days, will be Dubai, United Arab Emirates, the venue for COP28.

The City Park is being built on the site of a former airport in the city of Belém, in the Brazilian Amazon. It will include two convention centres to host the climate summit in 2025. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

Poor infrastructure

Today, Belém is a poor city, longing for its past prosperity as a gateway for goods and people to and from the Amazon, which is reflected in its historic downtown, expanded during the golden age of natural rubber in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

It now faces the challenge of hosting thousands of foreign authorities, including dozens of heads of state and government, for COP30 in November and December 2025, with a poor infrastructure for hotels, transport and basic sanitation. Open sewage canals criss-cross the city.

Treated water reaches 71.5% of its population, but sewage covers only 15.7% and wastewater treatment is limited to 3.5%, explained geographer Olga Castreghini, a retired university professor currently involved in Amazonian projects, during the annual meeting of the Brazilian Society for the Advancement of Science, held in Belém from 7 to 13 July.

Sewage canals litter the landscape of Belém, a city surrounded by water where drainage is vital and sewerage serves only 15.7 percent of the population. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

Mega-events and their white elephants

The city’s challenges toward COP30 was the theme of a panel shared by two geographers and two urban planners from local universities, who are part of a group of researchers who gather to analyse the projects, the organisation and the legacy of the summit for Belém and the Amazon.

The bulletin Focus on the COP informs on the academic monitoring of what Castreghini defined as a “niche, not massive, mega-event”, which attracts participants focused on the environment and climate, “very interested in the Amazon.”

The geographer seeks to accompany “the conflicts between the urgencies of local society and the demands of the mega-event,” which could affect the sustainability of projects after COP30.

She recalled the white elephants and numerous unfinished works left by two massive mega-events of the past decade in Brazil: the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro.

The light rail transit system was abandoned after initial works in Cuiabá, capital of the central-western state of Mato Grosso. Some stadiums survive underused, while the Olympic Park deteriorates unused in Rio de Janeiro, as do neighbourhoods and airports built for the Cup in the northeast.

Architect and urban planner Helena Tourinho fears that, as usually happens in these mega-events, the process of gentrification will accelerate, with some neighbourhoods gaining value and their poor inhabitants being expelled to the outskirts of the city.

COP30 unleashed a wave of works that privilege some neighbourhoods to the detriment of the historic downtown of Belém. Tourinho told IPS that the investments in the city centre, taken care of by the mayor’s office, amount to the equivalent of US$14 million, while in other neighbourhoods they rise to US$185 million.

The historic downtown has suffered gradual degradation since the 1970s, stressed by an invasion of street and informal commerce, mostly in cheap Asian products.

“The environment being built over or emptied was not altered, unlike the nature of its activities,” said the urban planner, along with disasters such as fires and collapsed houses.

Without revitalisation or restoration programmes, the historic downtown of Belém, an urban asset, seems forgotten and under increasing siege by real estate businesses in the surrounding area, she concluded.

By CIVICUS
Jul 25 2024 –  
CIVICUS discusses the recent US Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity and its potential impact on the 5 November presidential election with Ciara Torres-Spelliscy, a professor of Law at Stetson University College of Law.

On 1 July, the US Supreme Court ruled that presidents have absolute immunity for the exercise of their core constitutional powers and are entitled to a presumption of immunity for other official acts, although they don’t enjoy immunity for unofficial acts. The decision comes as Donald Trump faces criminal charges for trying to overturn his 2020 election loss to Joe Biden. The question now is whether Trump’s actions will be considered official or unofficial. But it’s unlikely he’ll be tried before the election, and if he returns as president he could pardon himself. Critics claim the Supreme Court ruling violates the spirit of the US Constitution by placing the president above the law.

What are the main points of the Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity?

This is a ruling in the federal case against Trump for trying to overturn his loss to Biden in the 2020 election. He is accused of pressuring state officials to overturn the results, spreading lies about voter fraud and using the Capitol riot of 6 January 2021 to delay Biden’s certification and stay in power. Trump pleaded not guilty and asked the US Supreme Court to dismiss the entire case, arguing that he was acting in his role as president and was therefore immune from prosecution.

The Supreme Court didn’t do that, but instead created three new categories of presidential immunity: complete immunity for official acts involving core constitutional powers, potential immunity for acts within the ‘outer perimeter’ of official duties and no immunity for private, unofficial acts.

The key question now is whether Trump’s actions will be deemed official, giving him immunity, or unofficial, leaving him open to prosecution. This is the first case of its kind, as Trump is the first American president to be prosecuted.

How does this ruling affect Trump’s other criminal cases?

This immunity ruling is likely to delay all four of his criminal cases, as judges will have to apply these new rules and drop any charges that involve the use of core presidential powers, as these can no longer be used as evidence against him.

As well as being accused of trying to overturn his 2020 defeat, Trump is also accused of paying adult film actress Stormy Daniels hush money during the 2016 election and not properly accounting for it in his business records. This case is unlikely to be affected by the ruling, as his actions don’t involve either core or peripheral presidential powers. Judge Merchan will have to decide whether any of his 34 felony business fraud convictions will stand or be thrown out.

But some of his other crimes occurred during his time in the Oval Office. Trump is accused of conspiring to overturn his 2020 loss in Georgia by asking the state’s top election official to ‘find 11,780 votes’. Trump has pleaded not guilty and could be prosecuted in his personal capacity, as presidents have no role in administering US elections. As in the Capitol case, this was a private action he took as a candidate and it would be difficult to fit into the category of presidential immunity.

The fourth case Trump faces is the Mar-a-Lago classified documents case. Trump is accused of mishandling classified documents by taking them to his Mar-a-Lago residence after leaving office and refusing to return them to the National Archives when he could no longer lawfully possess them. As his alleged crimes took place when he was no longer president, this case shouldn’t be affected by the immunity ruling. However, he could argue he possessed the documents while in office and ask that his case be treated differently from other defendants. This case was dismissed by Judge Cannon. However, the Mar-a-Lago criminal case could come back to life if the 11th Circuit reverses her dismissal.

What are the broader implications of this case for the presidential election?

After this decision, the American public should think about the consequences of who they elect as president, because the presidency can become a wellspring of crime.

An honest president wouldn’t be affected by the Trump v. US decision, because an honest person doesn’t need criminal immunity. Only time will tell whether the Supreme Court has invited future presidents to go on a crime spree. But what is certain is that only US voters can keep criminals out of the White House. So, as I write in my new book, Corporatocracy, the stakes in the 2024 election are incredibly high for the fate of US democracy.

Civic space in the USA is rated ‘narrowed’ by the CIVICUS Monitor.

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By Jan Lundius
STOCKHOLM, Sweden, Jul 25 2024 – Habits can change extremely fast, particularly within so-called “developed” nations, where children, even more than grownups are affected by life changing events. Gone are the times when kids could move around freely and invent games and adventures together with their friends. Far away from the scrutinizing control of parents and authorities they learned to interact with other kids, taking risks and solving problems. It could be tough and often quite merciless times, but educative, beneficent, and fun as well.

The presence of grownups in children’s worlds has gradually become more and more manifest. Prefabricated toys and gadgets are lured upon on children and quickly forgotten, while adults oversee and control not only schooling, but games and sport as well. Children’s scheduled leisure time hinders them from developing their brains in preparation for adulthood. Free, unsupervised play is disappearing, creating hypersensitive adults demanding not to be exposed to words, topics and ideas they perceive as unpleasant, or offensive. People are increasingly taking refuge within in a virtual reality, where they can find a space of their own among the millions of algorithms provided by Google, TikTok, YouTube, Facebook and Instagram. A never-ending flow of dopamine kicks, conveyed by short messages, reports, comments and publicity spots. A constant scrolling for things that might arouse interest and provide relaxation. On social media, boys watch hard porn even before they have experienced their first kiss, while young girls are fed with unrealistic beauty ideals and exposed to bullying and inappropriate approaches.

Much of the social changes behind the current, everyday existence might be traced back to 2014, when iPhone 4 was introduced. It was a small, clever, and handy device, with multitasking functions, including a front-facing camera and a huge variety of app folders. Furthermore, it provided access to Apple’s new Face Time video chat service. Selling over 600,000 pre-orders within 24 hours, the iPhone 4 was an immediate success. The benefits of a smartphone are apparent to any user. Taking photos, selfies, and making short videos have become part of our every day life, as well as keeping contact with family and friends all over the world. At any given moment we can in an instant find essential information. Smartphones have become an escape from boredom, opening up access to many worlds other than the one right in front of you. They are helping us to feel included and involved in society.

However, like any kind of delight, smartphones might also become an addiction. All around us we meet phone addicts – smombies, smartphone zombies, walking around hooked up to their small devices, oblivious of the surrounding world, risking accidents, harming not only others, but themselves as well. Any back-lit device, such as a smartphone, might seriously affect sleep cycles due to cells at the back of our eyes, which contain a light-sensitive protein picking up wavelengths of light. Such light-sensitive cells send signals to the part of the brain that regulates 24-hourly rhythms. Overuse of smartphones might not only lead to sleep deprivation, but also headaches, atrophy, and uneven nutrition.

Critics of excessive smartphone use have raised concerns about their mental effects, pointing out that while they make us pay attention to a vast amount of incoming information, while doing so at a superficial and limited level they disconnect people from what really matters. Without open spaces and mental rest, the nervous system never shuts down – making us wired and tired all the time. We are getting used to check our phones every minute – in the morning, during working hours, in the evenings, during weekends and vacations. Many of us become anxious and irritable if we cannot interact with our phones, constantly watching them, talking through them or fiddling with their apps. Some even use them to avoid interaction, evading conversations and eye contact.

There is an assumed correlation between social media and anger, anguish, and depression. Even for people who don’t use smartphones, they have created a changed social climate. The web has taken over press and opinion making. It has become easier to limit, control and maintain our own information sources. The smartphone world is dominated by a few large companies whose goal is to reinforce needs and addictions, as well as to collect and sell information, while doing so they even invade and expose our privacy. Lacking a smartphone might mean social marginalisation. At the same time much of the web has been brutalised; hate mongering, generalisations and prejudices are taking over from critical reviews and science-based information. Tech enterprises have been accused of exploiting our psychological shortcomings and exercising the biggest, uncontrolled experiment that humanity has ever been exposed to.

Our attention span is diminishing. A specific worry is that parents have largely been blind to how mobile phones have changed their children’s lives in such a fundamental manner that many of them have missed out on what it takes to grow up and become socially responsible, knowledgeable, and critical thinkers. Since early childhood, kids have been hooked to a screen, or a small rectangular box, often while plugging their ears. Many have during a large part of their lives become bereaved from face-to-face interaction and an actual presence of others; their scent, body language and facial expressions. Immersed in an odourless and abstract web-world they have been able to avoid the annoying interference of an authentic reality. The engagement of parents in their children’s wellbeing have thus been double-edged, at the same time as they have pampered them and tried to protect them from a harmful society, they have left their children at the mercy of a mind-numbing web world, far beyond their control.

Many children do not know how to make a summersault, read an entire novel, hike in the woods, fish, use a scissor, or a saw. They lack patience to watch an entire movie, to concentrate on a given task, or listening to a teacher. After a short while they reach for their smartphone and leave the real world behind, updating themselves on the activities of the Kardashian family, or follow an imaginary motorbike across a rugged landscape.

The Swedish governmental Mediemyndigheten, Media Authority, has since its initiation in 2005 monitored “media habits of young people from 9 to 18 years of age”, publishing its findings every second year. It did in 2023 establish that a majority of Swedish children at the age of nine have a smartphone of their own, while 70 percent of the fifteen years olds use their smartphones daily for at least three hours and has become more used to meet friends digitally, than physically.

The above might be perceived as a world-renouncing lament of an old man hostile to change. A techno-hostile alarmist and nostalgically tainted warning cry directed smartphone addiction and toxic social media. It might rightly be pointed out that throughout history, people have been warned about train travelling, reading of comic magazines, telephones, radio listening, TV watching, and a huge amount of other modernities. However, it is an undeniable fact that members of the so-called Generation Z, i.e. those born after 1995, in a great part of the world have been growing up with smartphones and become attracted by an alternative, thrilling and interesting world, which for many of them has created a dependency that often has proved to be unsuitable for both adults and children. It is quite possible that improved smartphones have among youngsters contributed to an alarming increase in mental illness – anxiety disorders, depression, anorexia, self-injury, and even suicide. Smartphones might have created an intensified awareness of appearance, comparisons with others, while sincere friendships have been superseded by superficial relationships, feelings of loneliness, status-seeking, rumour-mongering, demands for constant attention, stalking, bullying and a host of other harmful phenomena. Time spent within a world of fake news and make-belief is combined with an avalanche of demands on already stressed and immature child- and teenage brains, in which implanted opinions, mistakes and annoyances might become viral and a future burden.

Already twenty years ago, some medical expertise had found that children’s increased screen watching made them unconcentrated and might cause ADHD (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder), a neurodevelopmental affliction manifested through inattention, hyperactivity, impulsivity, and emotional imbalance, which impair children’s ability to cope with difficult situations.

In Sweden there is an ongoing debate whether smartphones have to be banned from schools and universities. Supporters of a law that makes this obligatory point to several facts. Foremost among them are concerns that smartphones might influence child development. The human brain is constantly developing, especially during childhood and adolescence, creating neural connections with a vital role in cognitive, emotional, and social functioning. It has actually been statistically established that children who spend more than two hours a day using electronic devices, including smartphones, had lower cognitive and language scores than children who spent less time on electronic devices. Excessive smartphone use can lead to changes in brain chemistry, including reduced grey matter volume in certain regions of the brain, associated with cognitive control, emotional regulation, and decision-making.

Smartphone use can of course not be forbidden, but it does not hurt to be reminded of dangers connected with their excessive use. When children got access to smartphones hey left behind their old, “stupid” mobile phones and their online time increased enormously. In those, not too distant, times we lacked knowledge of how to protect our children from companies which designed their products to create what could be a dangerous dependency. While protecting their children from the harmful influences of a real world, many parents under-protected them within a virtual reality. The American social psychologist Jonathan Heidt has stated that “the transition from a play-based to a mobile-based childhood has been a disastrous mistake – let’s bring our children home.”

Main sources: Haidt, Jonathan (2024) The Anxious Generation: How the great rewiring of childhood is causing an epidemic of mental illness. New York: Allen Lane, and Statens medieråd (2023) Ungar & medier 2023 En statistisk undersökning av ungas medievanor och attityder till medieanvändning. Stockholm: Statens medieråd.

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By Michał Podolski
BANGKOK, Thailand, Jul 25 2024 – Several Asia-Pacific countries are ageing fast. This transition is neither unique nor limited to the region — it is a global megatrend. However, this time it is different. Why? Because ageing proceeds quite fast.

While France and Sweden took 115 and 85 years, respectively, to progress from being an ageing society (with 7-14 per cent of the population aged 60 or older) to an aged society (14-21 per cent aged 60 or older), the same transition in China, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam is expected to take only 19-25 years.

Compared to other global megatrends that are shaping economies, such as digitalization or climate change, demographic shifts remain relatively foreseeable and slower by nature. This provides some soothing yet misleading comfort to policymakers. The impact these shifts have on economies is far from being simple, and analysts struggle to fully understand and/or quantify them.

The economy is the people. Therefore, demographic shifts stand out as one of the most influential factors shaping any aspect of an economy. Changing demographics means altering the essence and purpose of all economic activities.

As the purpose changes, so do the needs. Changes in productivity, the share of population in job markets, fiscal policy conduct and effectiveness, and how monetary policy affects economies – all these processes introduce high uncertainty into long-term economic and fiscal policy planning.

Why do the analysts struggle with quantifying the economic impact of ageing? The net change is a sum of multiple factors, often working in opposing directions. As people age, their productivity tends to fall. On the other hand, this trend is offset by technological progress, though to a largely unknown extent, making the net impact difficult to predict.

Ageing societies also exhibit a shift in consumption from durables (e.g. cars) to essential services (e.g. health care), thus affecting a country’s composition of demand for goods and services and tax revenues. Ageing also changes labour force participation. In simple terms, the share of working people in aged societies is lower than in young ones.

Furthermore, the more developed a society is, the greater the temptation to withdraw from the workforce as older people have the possibility to withdraw faster from labour force and enjoy the comfort of retirement. In contrast, in developing societies older people must work up until very old age to avoid poverty. No stone remains unturned.

Why is that all troublesome from the perspective of fiscal policymaking?

First, policymakers would like to know how much of goods and services are and will be produced so that they can plan how to redistribute them through taxes and fiscal expenditures. In plain words, policymakers need to know how to cut and redistribute the “economic pie” (GDP) – and it is not easy to predict its size in the future.

Second, some fiscal expenditures increase and some fall as societies age. Fiscal expenditures on pensions rise along with health care and other forms of social protection. In contrast, education expenditures fall given less demand for children education.

Third, the exact scale and time of these shifts is not easy to determine.

However, Governments do not have to remain passive observers of the demographic shifts, as they have multiple tools to soften the negative impact and boost positive processes. For example, premature retirement results in excessive burden on the fiscal system. Reskilling and upskilling of older people do retain them in work force, increase economic output and reduce poverty among older persons.

At the same time, governments may implement society-wide policies that support healthy and active ageing. With the help of modern technologies and experience from other aged countries, such as Japan, much can be done to keep people active into old age.

All such actions not only improve quality of life and economic performance among older people, but also, directly alleviate the fiscal burden of pension systems as retirement is postponed.

Finally, all the challenges highlighted above and policies needed to address them are closely linked. Therefore, policymakers should seek to address few problems at a time looking for synergies.

For example, greater investments in health care, education, social protection, and environment protection do not only improve the quality of life but also allow people to stay employed for a longer time period.

A better environment improves people’s health condition, which supports economic activity and decreases public spending needs for social protection and health care. In turn, saved social protection and health care expenditures can be used to support other development priorities.

This holistic approach must become the norm of government policy planning. Socioeconomic policies must embrace the idea of synergies between their goals, so that spending on one policy target also supports other goals.

For more insights into how demographic shifts are reshaping Asia-Pacific economies, fiscal policy, and the overall development agenda please delve into the Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2024, prepared by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.

Michał Podolski is Associate Economic Affairs Officer

IPS UN Bureau

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By Danjuma Adda
Jul 25 2024 – July 28^th is World Hepatitis Day, created to celebrate the life and work of Nobel Prize Winner Dr. Baruch Samuel Blumberg. Blumberg’s work contributed to the discovery of hepatitis B, and the development of a vaccine that could prevent infection with this infectious viral disease. These discoveries revolutionized the public health response in preventing the liver cancer that hepatitis B causes. 

The hepatitis B vaccine has been used for decades to save lives. Babies are given the vaccine at birth to protect them from getting infected with the hepatitis B virus, thus reducing the risk of children developing chronic liver disease or liver cancer later on in life. Many millions of people around the world are today free from the fears and trauma of living with hepatitis B as a result of the vaccine that Blumberg helped develop. 

Approximately 95% of infants who catch hepatitis B will develop a chronic infection, and roughly a quarter of them will eventually die from liver disease. This is why infant vaccination against hepatitis B is so important.

Only 18% of African infants have received the hepatitis B birth dose vaccine at birth in 2022, compared to 90% in Asia, so intensified efforts are required to protect the next generation of children around the world

The WHO recommends that all babies receive the vaccine as soon as possible after birth, preferably within 24 hours, followed by two or three doses four weeks apart. This gives babies about 100% protection against infection from hepatitis B and against developing chronic liver disease or liver cancer later on in life.

Kudos to GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance, national governments and other international partners, who have ensured that many children around the world have been vaccinated against the hepatitis B virus, especially in low-middle income countries.

My own children are among those who have benefited from these programs and from Blumberg’s research, as they were vaccinated against Hepatitis B at birth.

Not all babies are as fortunate, especially in Africa, where out-of-stock vaccines, home deliveries and weak health systems stand in the way of their receiving this life-saving intervention within 24 hours of delivery.

Only 18% of African infants have received the hepatitis B birth dose vaccine at birth in 2022, compared to 90% in Asia, so intensified efforts are required to protect the next generation of children around the world.

I never got the hepatitis B vaccine when I was born, as the birth dose was only introduced fairly recently in most countries in the Global South. Nor was I vaccinated when I was employed as a healthcare provider in a hospital – which is where I should have been protected but is the place I got infected in 2004. I am fortunate to have been diagnosed early though, and take daily  medication to stop my liver from developing cancer.

Despite Blumberg’s breakthroughs, however, hepatitis is still a killer disease. It still causes the deaths of over 800,000 people globally every year, the majority of whom are diagnosed too late when they already have advanced liver disease. 

Today, as we commemorate Blumberg’s birthday and mark World Hepatitis Day, we need to ask ourselves why that is. We need to ask why there is still such low awareness of hepatitis around the world. Why hasn’t this scientific breakthrough of discovering hepatitis B translated into eliminating the hepatitis B virus? Why have only 4% of hepatitis B patients been diagnosed while only 2.2% have been treated? Why have there been such poor investments into mass testing and treatment programs around the world to identify and place the “missing millions” on treatment?

We need to say clearly that this is not acceptable. as delays in testing and treatment is likely to lead to many more developing liver complications unnoticed. To eliminate hepatitis by 2030, we need to intensify efforts to reduce deaths by 65%. This means we MUST scale-up testing to find undiagnosed populations living with hepatitis B and C, the majority of whom do not know their status.

It is a big shame that I contracted  the virus in a place where I should be safe and protected, the hospital. This is the fate of many healthcare workers around the world and babies who do not receive the hepatitis B vaccine to protect them from getting an infection.

Baruch Blumberg would be turning in his grave if he knew that despite the available vaccines and treatments there are so many people who cannot access them due to poor funding from government and donors across the world! We owe more to him and his memory. 

The global community has the opportunity to turn off the tap of new hepatitis B infections and save millions of children and the global community from the fears of liver cancer attributable to hepatitis B in the future. Let this World Hepatitis Day be the day we decide to honor Blumberg’s memory in deed as well as word. 

Danjuma Adda, M.P.H., is the executive director of the Centre for Initiative and Development in Nigeria and a senior fellow with Aspen Institute. He was the committee chair of the 2024 World Hepatitis Summit and the past president of the World Hepatitis Alliance.