By Oritro Karim
Oct 24 2024 – Attacks on Lebanon over the past two months, as instigated by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have been increasingly indiscriminate. The Disaster Risk Management Unit at the Lebanese Council of Ministers confirmed that the death toll of Lebanese civilians has risen to over 2,530. Furthermore, Israel’s hostilities have led to casualties among United Nations (UN) personnel, which has been described as “violations of international law”.

Most recently, on the morning of October 23, the IDF coordinated an airstrike on the Lebanese port city of Tyre, mere hours after a series of airstrikes hit the suburbs of southern Beirut, decimating infrastructure. On October 22, Lebanese Cabinet member Nasser Yassin reported that Lebanon will need approximately 250 million dollars on a monthly basis to help the over 1 million displaced people due to the recent escalation in hostilities between Israel and Lebanon.

“Overnight we’ve seen more than 1 million people being displaced by the attacks, hostilities, by the aggression. And this is similar to an earthquake. You don’t see this number in scale and the speed of it, except in major natural disasters. And this is what happened in 48 hours,” said Yassin.

On October 21, an airstrike in southern Beirut destroyed several buildings within range of the Rafik Hariri University Hospital, the largest in Lebanon, and killed 18 civilians. Fears of future attacks on hospitals have spread among Lebanese civilians and officials. Daniel Hagari, spokesperson for the IDF, reported that the hospital contained a bunker with millions of dollars’ worth of cash and gold.

“One of our main targets last night was an underground vault with tens of millions of dollars in cash and gold. The money was being used to finance Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel. According to the estimates we have, there is at least half a billion dollars in dollar bills and gold stored in this bunker. This money could and still can be used to rebuild the state of Lebanon,” said Hagari.

Hospital director Mazen Alame told reporters that no such bunker exists. Volker Türk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, has warned that any and all attacks involving hospitals are subject to thorough investigations.

On Tuesday October 22, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) detected over 1,417 projectiles that were fired south of the Blue Line, striking critical infrastructure in Al Matmurah, Al Qawzah, Aytaroun, Ett Taibe, Majdal Silim, Ghobeiry, and Khiam. The uptick in violence has led to Hezbollah taking a firmer stance, informing reporters that the conflict has reached a “new phase of escalation”. Political analysts such as Amal Saad predict that hostilities between the two parties will continue to rise in intensity.

“When you look at the bigger picture and you see in relative terms how Hezbollah has survived all this and been able to conduct such fierce resistance to an ongoing attempted invasion by the most powerful army in the Middle East, one can only conclude that Hezbollah is actually stronger than what we assumed it was. This might be a more ferocious Hezbollah that we’re seeing,” said Saad.

Reports from UNIFIL personnel indicate that peacekeeping missions along the border of Lebanon have grown increasingly difficult amid the escalation of airstrikes and ground incursions. On October 13, UNIFIL reported that the IDF breached one of their bases, firing several rounds 100 meters away from their position. 15 peacekeepers suffered injuries from smoke exposure.

UNIFIL issued a press statement on October 20, reporting that an IDF bulldozer had “deliberately demolished” a UN watchtower and perimeter fence. They reiterated that encroaching on UN positions and destroying UN assets constitute violations of international humanitarian law. Despite numerous security breaches and attacks on peacekeeping entities, UNIFIL maintains its positions in Lebanon, continuing to closely monitor and report Israeli offensives.

The UN and its affiliated organizations continue to provide support to affected communities in Lebanon. The World Food Programme (WFP) has been on the frontlines since “day one of the crisis”, distributing daily hot meals and food parcels to over 200,000 kitchens in Lebanon, and providing food assistance to nearly 150,000 Lebanese civilians who have fled to Syria.

The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) has delivered over 140 tons of medical supplies to medical facilities and first responders. UNICEF has also provided medical and psychosocial support to people across 50 shelters in Lebanon. They have also distributed essential supplies to displacement shelters, including hygiene kits, water sanitation supplies, bedding, supplements, baby food, and maternity kits.

UNICEF has also partnered with Lebanon’s Ministry of Education to provide educational resources for children to ensure that they maintain some form of schooling in the duration of this conflict.

In the beginning of October, the UN launched a flash appeal of 426 million dollars to provide assistance to impacted communities for the next three months. Continued funding and donor contributions will be crucial as attacks remain frequent.

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By Nur Hamidah, Rebecca Purba and Anna Amalia
BANGKOK, Thailand, Oct 24 2024 – Over half of Asia-Pacific’s population now live in cities. While urbanization brings people closer to opportunities and better services, many urban dwellers are also experiencing the adverse impacts of climate change such as floods, urban heat and infectious diseases. Urban activities are among the major contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Consequently, building adequate capacities to adapt and promoting low-carbon and climate-resilient urban development are strategic priorities to reduce the region’s GHG emissions and safeguard its people. ESCAP, through the Urban-Act project, is supporting cities in Asia to identify important local actions to increase resilience and transition to climate-sensitive urban development.

Moving from business-as-usual to climate-sensitive development requires substantial investment and good enabling conditions. To meet Indonesia’s climate target, for example, the country needs ~USD 285 billion in total financing for 2018-2030 – a significant amount for a country facing a myriad of urbanization challenges.

In 2024, ESCAP and the Cities Climate Finance Leadership Alliance (CCFLA), assisted countries including Indonesia, to assess their national enabling conditions for urban climate finance.

The assessment evaluates four dimensions of the enabling conditions: climate policy, budget and finance, climate data, and vertical and horizontal coordination. In Indonesia, assessing national enabling conditions for subnational climate action in the urban context is part of an integrated approach to scale up climate action.

First, from the policy perspective, climate change is an important aspect of Indonesia’s national development. Climate-related targets gain prominence in the latest national medium-term development plan and will become even more so in the upcoming long-term development plan.

At the subnational level, however, the capacity to mainstream climate action varied. Lack of awareness, competing priorities and limited funding are among the main challenges that create significant gaps between budget allocation and achieving climate targets.

Second, despite the fiscal decentralization policy that allows subnational governments to manage their revenue and expenditures, reliance on central government transfers remains a common practice. In general, subnational governments face difficulties in generating revenue.

This reality exacerbates the challenge of allocating sufficient funding to build cities’ adaptive capacity and mitigate GHG emissions. Public-private partnership as a potential source of infrastructure financing has not made a significant contribution to subnational finance. Debt is not prevalent among subnational governments. Municipal bonds, introduced nearly twenty years ago, have not seen successful issuance by any subnational government.

A recent regulation on carbon pricing allows subnational governments to generate revenue from carbon trading, but effective implementation requires technical guidance and capacity building – a similar issue with thematic global climate funds.

Officials from cities participating in an Urban-Act workshop expressed that their cities received limited information about the mechanisms and had limited technical capacity to access the funds.

Third, Indonesia has developed several information systems facilitating subnational climate analysis and/or progress reporting, including AKSARA and National Registry System which record mitigation and adaptation activities, SIGN SMART records GHG emissions inventory at the provincial level, and SIDIK which allows analysis of adaptive capacity disaggregated at the village level.

Subject to data availability and quality, the analysis produced by these platforms could aid subnational governments in their development planning and efforts to access financing.

Finally, on vertical and horizontal coordination, Indonesia’s development planning forum, Musrembang, which fosters inclusive and participatory community discussions mandates for development aspirations to be discussed at all levels of government. However, the extent of climate discussions within these forums varies.

To improve conditions for Indonesian cities to access climate finance, there is a need for enhanced technical support to align subnational development planning and budgeting with national climate targets.

This includes strengthening institutional capacity to internalize climate adaptation and mitigation strategies into development programmes/activities, starting from understanding cities’ vulnerability to climate change and the major contributing sectors of GHG emissions all the way to monitoring and evaluation.

Such improvements would enable subnational governments to set measurable targets, prioritize actions, mobilize funding, and follow a clear and trackable roadmap. Policy to enable subnational governments to generate revenue from activities contributing to GHG emissions to finance climate action could be explored further. Incentives provision can also encourage private and subnational governments to move in this direction.

Climate data reporting platforms can be utilized and optimized better by encouraging more participation of subnational governments and relevant stakeholders – which should be accompanied by building technical capacity in data management to improve quality and evidence-based planning.

As climate change is a multistakeholder and multijurisdictional issue, national and subnational governments must facilitate cross-jurisdictional and collaborative urban climate actions to effectively tackle its potential impacts.

Climate action cannot be delayed any longer as the cost of inaction is far outweighing the cost of action. Assessing the enabling conditions at the national level is a crucial first step in understanding the challenges and opportunities of mobilizing urban climate finance. Member States can start by utilizing the tool to foster local climate actions.

Nur Hamidah is Urban Climate Change Specialist, ESCAP; Rebecca Purba is Associate Economic Affairs Officer, Environment and Development Division; Anna Amalia Senior Planner, Ministry of Development Planning of the Republic of Indonesia.

Source: ESCAP

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By Hisham Allam
CAIRO, Oct 24 2024 – In a significant move to address the challenges faced by people with disabilities and the elderly, six Egyptian parliamentary committees met in Cairo on October 12 to discuss national strategies and legislative efforts.

The Forum of Arab Parliamentarians on Population and Development and the Asian Population and Development Association (APDA), with support from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and the Government of Japan, organized the meeting with the focus of aligning Egypt’s policies with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Roughly 1.2 million people with disabilities currently receive state assistance, while Egypt’s elderly population continues to grow. According to the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), 10.64 percent of Egyptians have a disability, and the elderly population reached 9.3 million in 2024, representing 8.8 percent of the total population—4.6 million men (8.5 percent) and 4.7 million women (9.2 percent). The parliamentary committees convened to enhance support for these vulnerable groups.

Dr. Abdelhadi Al-Qasabi, Chairman of the Committee on Social Solidarity, Family, and People with Disabilities, emphasized recent legislative developments. He pointed out that Egypt has passed important legislation, such as the Elderly Care Law in 2024 and the Law on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities in 2018, to safeguard these vulnerable groups. He underlined that these laws show the state’s adherence to the Egyptian Constitution, which upholds everyone’s right to a dignified life free from discrimination.

“Egypt has made significant strides by adopting policies and laws that protect and empower people with disabilities and the elderly,” stated Al-Qasabi. “We aim to ensure they are not only recipients of support but contributors to the nation’s progress.”

The “Karama” program of the Egyptian government, which offers financial aid to those with impairments, was the focus of the gathering. Egypt’s Minister of Social Solidarity, Dr. Maya Morsy, noted that the program, which has an annual budget of about 10 billion Egyptian pounds, currently serves 1.2 million people with 1.3 million integrated services cards distributed to make access to social services and healthcare easier.

“We are committed to ensuring that people with disabilities receive their integrated services cards within 30 days, enhancing their access to vital resources.”

Morsy emphasized the Elderly Care Law, which assures those over 65 have better access to social, economic, and healthcare services. “We aim to create an environment where the elderly can live independently, free from abuse or exploitation, while continuing to contribute to society,” she told the audience.

Dr. Hala Youssef, UNFPA Advisor, emphasized the need for international cooperation in meeting the SDGs and ensuring that no one falls behind.

Discussion at a conference under the auspices of the Forum of Arab Parliamentarians on Population and Development and the Asian Population and Development Association discussed the empowerment of people with disabilities and the elderly. Credit: APDA

“Parliamentarians play a strategic role in creating a legislative framework that addresses the needs of the most vulnerable,” Youssef added. “Innovation and technology can be powerful tools for inclusion, providing people with disabilities access to education, employment, and social participation on an equal footing.”

Youssef went on to emphasize disturbing global figures, stating that 46 percent of seniors over 60 have some type of handicap and that persons with disabilities were among the hardest struck during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Children with disabilities are four times more likely to experience violence than their peers, while adults with disabilities face higher risks of abuse and exploitation,” Youssef said, urging a stronger commitment to protecting their rights.

Dr. Sami Hashim, head of the Committee on Education and Scientific Research, stressed the integration of individuals with disabilities in the educational system. He emphasized that, especially in the age of artificial intelligence, education must be adaptable, inclusive, and forward-thinking.

“Our education system must not only teach knowledge but prepare individuals for success in an increasingly technological world,” said Hashim. “This is particularly important for students with disabilities, who should have access to the tools and opportunities that will allow them to thrive.”

The forum emphasized the critical need for national and international collaboration to build inclusive, egalitarian communities, given that 80% of the one billion persons with disabilities worldwide live in developing nations and that the number of older people in need of assistance is rising.
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By Melek Zahine
PARIS, Oct 24 2024 – Nobody should be fooled by President Biden’s recent warning to Israel that the U.S. may level consequences if it doesn’t do more to surge humanitarian aid into Gaza within the next 30 days. Biden’s warning, along with Anthony Blinken’s 11th trip to Israel and the region to try and revive ceasefire talks, is nothing more than cynical double talk designed to appease domestic audiences and buy time for Israel to deepen its genocidal aims against the Palestinian people and brutally punish those who support their liberation.

Melek Zahine

Israel knows that Washington’s warnings aren’t serious. Despite independently documented evidence of Israel’s genocidal actions and war crimes in Gaza, the West Bank and now Lebonon, billions of dollars in offensive arms transfer, intelligence and military support from the United States continue unabated. Israel also knows that the U.S. government has consistently operated in their favor in breach of domestic U.S. laws not only for the past year but for decades. U.S. National Security Memorandum 20 and the Leahy Laws both stipulate that the United States cannot provide any form of assistance, especially military aid, to a country that is restricting the delivery of U.S.-funded humanitarian assistance.

It’s no surprise that Israel’s immediate response to Biden’s warning and Blinken’s shuttle diplomacy this week has been to escalate the humanitarian blockade and military offensive on Gaza’s already besieged civilian population, especially in famine-stricken Northern Gaza, where tens of thousands of unarmed and starved men, women and children are now being trapped, corralled, and slaughtered like animals by Israeli political elites who have an endless supply of lethal U.S.- weapons and Biden’s iron-clad loyalty on their side.

As Israel prevents humanitarian aid from reaching beleaguered and displaced Palestinian civilians throughout the Gaza Strip, hospitals are now faced with dwindling medical supplies amidst the growing numbers of injured and ill. Healthcare providers and first responders, who themselves are struggling to survive, now have little more than their compassion to offer the sick and the dying. Unless President Biden uses his singularly unique leverage to take decisive, immediate action, tens of thousands more Palestinians will be killed in the next thirty days, 75% of which will be women and children.

As a U.S. citizen who has worked in the field of humanitarian assistance for more than 30 years, I have both witnessed and paid keen attention to the devastating human toll on civilian lives that my government has consistently chosen to unleash since 9/11 in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Somalia, Libya, Yemen and now Gaza and Lebanon. Rather than work to de-escalate during times of crisis through earnest, mature diplomacy, the United States, irrespective of which political party is in power, has all too often chosen to pursue extreme military force as the cornerstone of its foreign policy, benefitting narrow special interest groups in Washington at the expense of innocent populations abroad, U.S. soldiers and average U.S. taxpayers at home.

During my career, I’ve also had the privilege of witnessing those rare moments when the United States has chosen to mitigate harm by using its powerful foreign policy tools to de-escalate conflicts and secure humanitarian spaces. In 1991, in Northern Iraq, the U.S. led a multi-nation coalition of NATO and U.N. partners to deliver emergency aid and protection to Iraqi Kurdish refugees fleeing gas attacks by Saddam Hussein. Also, in the 90s, the United States helped deliver C5 Galaxy loads of lifesaving emergency supplies to besieged civilians in Sarajevo and worked with NATO and U.N. partners to enforce a no-fly zone over the former Yugoslavia. This decision helped lessen the level of violence between the various warring sides and protect civilians and U.N. personnel. During earthquakes, such as the ones that hit Turkiye in 1999 and 2023, the United States sent search and rescue teams, often being the first to reach people trapped under tons of concrete and metal with specialized equipment and dogs. Biden’s decision to leave Palestinian civilians and civil defense workers to desperately try and rescue people under destroyed homes and shelters caused by U.S. bombs, with nothing but their bare hands says everything one needs to know about the emptiness of his latest warnings, red lines, and shuttle diplomacy. Biden’s foreign policy is nothing but a cruel and unusual punishment that the U.S. Constitution’s 8th Amendment warns Americans against inflicting on others.

If President Biden were actually serious about addressing the humanitarian catastrophe facing Palestinians and now the Lebanese, he wouldn’t need to wait 30 days. All he would need to do is immediately emulate past American administrations and execute his executive powers, enforce an immediate no-fly zone over Gaza and Lebanon, and authorize an immediate arms embargo on Israel. This combined approach would immediately improve conditions for a lasting cease-fire, unimpeded humanitarian access and prevent a further escalation of regional tensions. Rather than use his remaining days in office to buy time for Israel to cause more human suffering, President Biden must buy time for those who won’t live to see another day without a more humane U.S. foreign policy intervention. Imagine being the most powerful leader in the world and choosing anything less.

The author is a humanitarian affairs and disaster response specialist.

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By Wambi Michael
KAMPALA, Oct 24 2024 – Until recently, Margaret Natabi would never have dreamed of taking her anti-corruption fight on the streets of Uganda’s capital, Kampala.

Natabi, 24, is a University student. She has first-hand experience of how corruption affects marginalized groups, especially women and girls.

She was orphaned during childhood. Her mother died while giving birth to one of her siblings. She believes that if it were not for corruption, her mother would not have died.

Natabi is among those arrested in July during the famous “march to parliament in protest.” The march followed a social media campaign by young Ugandans using the hashtag #StopCorruption.

On the day of her arrest, Natabi was holding a poster reading, “The corrupt are playing with the wrong generation.” Data from the latest population and housing census indicate that some 15 million out of a population of 45 million Ugandans.

When the police approached her during the protest, Natabi did not resist.  Female police constables lifted her and bundled her into the police car.

“I was so determined to preach the gospel against corruption to everyone. Even the police officer that was arresting me,” she shared.

However, the arresting officers were not about to listen to her.

“I actually don’t know where the policemen and women got that anger from because I was peaceful. It was as if something was charging them with anger. I was just exercising my constitutional rights. But here they were charging at me with brutal force,” Natabi narrated.

While others went to beat the young men taking part in the protest, she claimed that a male police officer kicked her hard in the back.

“Then the police officer turned to me, saying, ‘Look at you. You have painted nails; you have money to plait in your hair. What has corruption done to you? And you are saying this country is hard for you!’” she narrated.

Natabi further narrated that she insisted on “preaching to the officers” the dangers of corruption.

“I told the officer that by the time you see me here, you don’t know how many things I have lost due to corruption. I do not have a father. I do not have a mother. Do you know how corruption caused that? My mother had to die because she was not attended to at the hospital when she was pregnant. She lost her baby and she lost her life.”

Even though she had just come out of prison, Natabi told IPS that she was not about to give up in her fight against corruption. “Because the more I keep quiet, I’m doing an injustice to my country,” she said

“We may not end corruption. But the number of people who have seen what we are doing, the eyes that we are opening—there is a person today who is going to pick that courage from us,” said Natabi. “When we all keep quiet, nobody is going to rise up. But some people just want to see one person standing up and they will get that courage.”

Natabi is not alone; more and more young women like 25-year-old Claire Namara have come out to challenge the status quo. She was charged with disturbing a lawful religious assembly.

Her problem stemmed from a lone protest during mass at a Catholic church in the suburbs of Kampala. Dressed in black and holding the Ugandan flag, Namara attempted to preach to the congregants about the dangers of the luxurious lifestyle of the country’s Speaker of Parliament, Annett Anita, whom many believe squanders public money for personal gain.

Namara also had a poster with a picture of a sanitary pad with the message, “Magogo’s birthday car would pad one million young girls for a year. #StopCorruption.”

The Police questioned her about the message on the sanitary pad poster.

“He asked me to read the placard twice. I confidently read it because I wrote it when I meant it. He asked me what the meaning of this message was. I told him the cost of Magogo’s car would (provide) pads for one million girls in a year; that is what we are meaning and that is a fact,” Namara narrated.

Anita bought a new Range Rover as a birthday present when millions of girls were going with sanitary pads.

Many young girls in rural Uganda continue to miss long constructive hours away from school because of a lack of sanitary pads.

In 2021, the government and a group of civil society organizations published A Menstrual Health Snapshot of Uganda, which found that 65% (nearly 7 out of 10) of girls and women in Uganda did not have access to products to fully meet their menstrual health needs. It noted that 70 percent of adolescent girls mentioned menstruation as a major hindrance to their optimal school performance.

“I would at certain point fail to get sanitary pads and I would end up using cloth. That is a personal story but as well, in my village, many girls still struggle to afford sanitary pads,” Namara told IPS.

President Yoweri Museveni during the 2016 election pledged to provide funds for free sanitary pads in schools. However, in 2020, his wife, Janet Museveni, also the Minister of Education and Sports, said that there were no funds to sustain the provision of free sanitary pads.

Namara told IPS that while the government said it lacked the money to fund menstrual hygiene, politicians—more so women politicians—have been named in corruption scandals.

“I must believe that even when we think that we have it all, every woman, apart from those who belong to the first family and those who are stealing from our taxes, has struggled to get pads. Even when you access it, you struggle to get that money,” argues Namara, who believes that the state must ensure that young girls have access to safe menstrual hygiene services.

Namara told IPS that while she was facing ridicule from a section of the public that condemned her for carrying “her” protest to church, she has equally been receiving messages of commendation from many.

“We need a bigger discussion in Uganda about women in Uganda and how they are facing these societal norms. I was so disappointed by fellow women who were asking how she could go to protest in church. She is a young girl. Who will marry her?

In early September, Norah Kobusingye, Praise Aloikin Opoloje, and Kemitoma Kyenziibo were arrested while marching the Parliament building with posters “No Corruption.” They had almost stripped naked and painted their bodies.  The youthful protestors, who belong to the Uganda Freedom Activists, were slapped with a common nuisance charge contrary to the Uganda Penal Code Act.

In reaction, the feminist scholar and writer Dr. Stella Nyanzi said the young women’s imprisonment would not deter the peaceful protests.

“Charging comrades Kemitoma Siperia Mollie, Praise Aloikin, and Kobusingye Norah with common nuisance and remanding them to Luzira Women’s Prison until September 12, 2024 will not stop the peaceful #March2Parliament to #StopCorruption and demand that #AnitaMustResign,” observed Nyanzi, known for using “radical rudeness” as a form of political protest similar to what the young men did.

The emergence of a young breed of female anti-corruption actors in Uganda has triggered debate. For some, these young people have broken the formal and cultural barriers about women and corruption.

Dr. Miria Matembe, a former Minister of Ethics and Integrity under Museveni, agrees with those who believe that the young women anti-corruption activists have come to challenge the status quo because the once vibrant women’s movement in Uganda has been silenced.

“Do you hear any NGO going out the way we used to do? They are in their offices doing their work. So the space for us who used to go out is completely closed.”

She told IPS that the entire system of governance in Uganda is corrupt.  “Corruption is not about the Prime Minister because she is a woman. Look at the women politicians individually. They are greedy. We have a transactional parliament. Rather than a transformative parliament. When Museveni wants something, he takes them aside and asks how much.  Therefore, I must say we are heading nowhere,” she said.

Others say they are posing a challenge to women who are holding “big” positions under Museveni. There is a feeling that women in leadership like Vice President Jessica Alupo, Speaker of Parliament Anita Among, and Prime Minister Robina Nabanja have conspired with Museveni in propping up a corrupt regime.

Younger female Ugandans, like Nantongo Bashira, believe that those leaders have let them down.

Bashira, a lecturer at the Islamic University in Uganda, told IPS that young women bear the responsibility to make the future they want.

“We keep on saying the future is female. If you tell us that the future is women and corruption is skyrocketing, the future is female and things are not going your way, it is our responsibility to shape that future that we want,” said Bashira.

Aili Mari Tripp, a Vilas Research Professor of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison USA, wrote in a paper titled “How African Autocracies Instrumentalize Women Leaders” that Uganda is among the autocracies that have instrumentalized women to stay longer in power.

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By Umar Manzoor Shah
COPENHAGEN & SRINAGAR , Oct 24 2024 – Anne Olhoff, Chief Climate Advisor at UNEP, underlined the urgent need for accelerated climate action ahead of COP29 in an exclusive interview with IPS. “The next six years are crucial—without accelerated action, we will miss the chance to limit warming to 1.5°C,” she warned.

Olhoff stressed that while ambition is essential, “What we need most is immediate action.”

Olhoff also termed the role of the Emissions Gap Report as a bridge between science and policy, advocating for financial and technical support to ensure a just transition for developing countries.

As Chief Climate Advisor and as part of the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre management, Olhoff provides climate science-policy advice and supports climate strategy development and implementation in the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre and UNEP.

Olhoff has worked with UNEP throughout her career and has more than 25 years’ experience in international science-policy advice, technical assistance and research on climate change mitigation and adaptation in the context of sustainable development.

Since 2012, Olhoff has led the annual UNEP flagship report on climate change mitigation—the Emissions Gap Report—guiding and coordinating the work of more than 70 scientists from at least 35 institutions across more than 25 countries in addition to being the chief scientific editor of the report.

On the eve of the publication of the 2024 emissions report entitled ‘No more hot air … please’ Olhoff gave an exclusive interview to IPS.

Here are excerpts from the interview.

Inter Press Service (IPS): What do you expect from COP29? How do you think it will help on the ground?

Anne Olhoff: That’s a tricky question. The Emissions Gap Report doesn’t dive deeply into COP29 specifically, but we aim to guide discussions during COP29 and the preparation for the next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which countries will submit before COP30. The report highlights where we stand now and what needs to happen in the short term and with the next NDCs. Hopefully, this will provide useful insights for the discussions in Baku as well.

IPS: How do you see the role of science-policy advice in climate action, especially with the rise of net-zero targets?

Olhoff: That’s an excellent question. Through the Emissions Gap Report, we aim to contribute to this effort. Our goal is to provide science-based yet timely and relevant information for international discussions. Unlike IPCC reports, which are published every six years, the Emissions Gap Report offers an annual, tailored update.

What’s reassuring is that the report has been well received. Surveys show that 75-83 percent of national delegations use it during climate negotiations or in their submissions to the UNFCCC. This suggests we are filling a gap by offering valuable information between IPCC cycles.

IPS: After leading the Emissions Gap Report for several years, what are your key takeaways, and how have its findings influenced global strategies?

Olhoff: It’s hard to pinpoint specific changes directly resulting from the report, but it has certainly shed light on critical issues—both on where we’re headed and where we need to be. Importantly, this year’s report highlights solutions across all sectors, focusing on ways to accelerate emission reductions across the economy.

IPS: From your experience with both adaptation and mitigation, which areas need immediate attention, and where do you see the biggest gaps?

Olhoff: There’s a lot of potential for synergies between adaptation, mitigation, and development goals. Agriculture and forestry offer some of the greatest opportunities, but energy systems are equally critical. Access to electricity for cooling, for instance, is essential to building climate resilience.

It’s important to note that mitigation must come first. If emissions aren’t reduced, no amount of adaptation will prevent severe impacts and losses. Reducing emissions minimizes the future burden on adaptation efforts.

IPS: How has UNEP’s approach to climate change evolved over the years, and what recent developments excite you the most?

Olhoff: This is the 15th edition of the report, which we’ve been producing since 2010. Back then, temperature projections based on existing policies were about half a degree higher than they are now. This shows that we’ve made some progress, although it’s not enough.

One exciting development is the advancement of renewable energy, especially in terms of cost reductions and deployment. However, we need to ensure these breakthroughs benefit all countries, not just a select few. There’s a strong need to improve investment flows to developing economies, especially outside China.

IPS: Coordinating with scientists from over 25 countries must be challenging. How do you maintain alignment and quality control?

Olhoff: We follow a process similar to the IPCC. We have author teams, a steering committee involving IPCC representatives and UNFCCC experts, and rigorous external reviews.

Additionally, we send draft reports to countries mentioned in the report to allow for feedback and ensure we aren’t missing important perspectives. It’s a tightly managed process to maintain high scientific standards.

IPS: What trends or innovations do you think will play a pivotal role in climate transparency and reporting in the coming decade?

Olhoff: One major development will be the biennial transparency reports, which countries will submit by the end of this year. These reports will help track progress more accurately and offer opportunities to learn from each other’s experiences.

While we have many of the technologies needed to achieve steep reductions, investing in research and development for new mitigation options will be essential moving forward. Improved transparency will also help ensure accountability.

IPS: With your experience in advisory roles, how important is interdisciplinary collaboration in shaping climate policies, particularly at the intersection of health, disaster management, and climate resilience?

Olhoff: It’s absolutely critical. Often, experts focus on isolated components—like the energy system—without considering how everything connects. Interdisciplinary approaches help us understand the complex relationships and address flaws in narrower frameworks. This has been a key focus in my work.

IPS: How do you manage the tension between political agendas and scientific evidence when advising on climate strategies?

Olhoff: We stick to scientific principles. Of course, we consider political sensitivities, but we aim to provide unbiased and credible analysis. Engaging with authors from around the world and including extensive peer reviews helps ensure we capture different perspectives.

When we encounter differences of opinion, we stay grounded in science to maintain credibility. The goal is to provide sound, defensible analysis.

IPS: Transitioning away from fossil fuels is challenging, especially for countries with fossil reserves. How can a just transition happen for developing countries without jeopardizing their economies?

Olhoff: That’s a tough question, but an important one. Renewable energy is already cost-competitive in many parts of the world. However, countries need financial and technical support to transition away from fossil fuels.

For countries with large untapped fossil fuel reserves, compensation mechanisms may be necessary to encourage them not to exploit these resources. The next round of NDCs offers an opportunity for these countries to present investment-ready plans that outline what support they need to pursue ambitious climate goals.

IPS: Do you see COP29 as a now-or-never opportunity for climate action?

Olhoff: I wouldn’t say COP29 alone is the deciding moment, but the next six years are crucial. If we continue on the current path, we will miss the chance to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2030.

The real focus should be on accelerating country-level actions. While increased ambition in the next NDCs is essential, it won’t mean much without immediate action. As the Emissions Gap Report emphasizes, every delay increases the risks of costly and irreversible impacts.

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By Umar Manzoor Shah
COPENHAGEN, Oct 24 2024 – The United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2024 delivered a stark reminder that the world is still far from meeting its climate commitments.

The report, released today, October 24, highlights the widening gap between climate rhetoric and reality as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reach 57.1 gigatons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO₂) in 2023—a record high that undermines the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

Addressing the press conference while releasing the report, titled “No More Hot Air …please,” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres issued a warning to the world. With current greenhouse gas emissions at record highs, Guterres said that humanity is “teetering on a planetary tightrope,” with catastrophic consequences looming unless countries act decisively to close the emissions gap.

The cover of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2024 ‘No more hot air… please.’ Credit: UNEP

“Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster—with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most,” Guterres said during a video address from the report’s launch event in Nairobi.

According to the Emissions Gap Report 2024, global greenhouse gas emissions rose 1.3 percent in 2023 to their highest levels in history. At the current pace, the world is on track for a 3.1°C temperature rise by the end of the century—well above the limits set by the Paris Agreement.

Guterres emphasized that limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains technically feasible, but only if emissions fall by 9 percent annually until 2030. Without swift intervention, the UN chief warned of more frequent and extreme weather events.

“Record emissions mean record sea temperatures, supercharging monster hurricanes; record heat is turning forests into tinderboxes and cities into saunas; record rains are resulting in biblical floods,” he said.

Guterres termed the COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, as a pivotal moment for global climate policy. The Secretary-General outlined two major areas where urgent progress is essential. One, he said, is National Climate Action Plans (NDCs).

“COP29 starts the clock for countries to deliver new national climate action plans—NDCs—by next year,” Guterres said.
Governments are expected to align these plans with the 1.5°C target by driving down emissions across all sectors and phasing out fossil fuels swiftly and equitably.

Guterres urged countries to commit to reversing deforestation and accelerating the deployment of renewable energy. Another area, according to the Secretary General, that merits immediate concern is climate finance.

Guterres said that the success of the clean energy transition depends heavily on financial support for developing countries, which are already struggling with climate-induced disasters.

“COP29 must agree to a new finance goal that unlocks the trillions of dollars they need and provides confidence it will be delivered,” he said.

The Secretary-General urged significant increases in concessional public financing, along with cutting-edge techniques like levies on fossil fuel extraction. He also urged reforms in multilateral development banks to enhance their role in climate financing.

The Secretary-General emphasized that climate action is not just a matter of environmental responsibility but also of economic foresight. He stressed that the cost of inaction far exceeds the cost of action.

As the largest emitters, G20 nations, responsible for 80 percent of global emissions, must take the lead in closing the emissions gap. Guterres challenged the wealthiest countries to act first. “I urge first-movers to come forward. We need leadership now more than ever,” he said.

Guterres echoed the UNEP report’s urgent message that “people and the planet cannot afford more hot air.” The time for empty promises has passed, and concrete steps are required to meet the climate goals. “Today’s Emissions Gap report is clear: we’re playing with fire, but there can be no more playing for time. We’re out of time,” he said.

The latest Emissions Gap Report 2024 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has sounded a dire alarm on the disconnect between political commitments and the reality of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

In stark language, the report urges governments to close the widening gap between rhetoric and action.

“The transformation to net-zero economies must happen, and the sooner this global transformation begins, the better. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved, and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot,” reads the report.

UNEP warned that the current trajectory leaves the world on a path toward 2.6°C warming this century, far beyond the Paris Agreement targets. The report calls for a “quantum leap” in ambition and urgent action from governments, particularly ahead of the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due in early 2025.

Here are some highlights:

G20 Nations Hold the Key to Global Emission Reductions

The report has highlighted that G20 countries, responsible for 77 percent of global emissions, must take the lead in closing the emissions gap. While these countries have set net-zero goals, their current policies fall short of aligning with the necessary emission reductions. Without significant improvements, the G20 is projected to miss its NDC targets for 2030 by at least 1 GtCO₂e.

Required Cuts: 42 percent Reduction by 2030 for 1.5°C Target

To achieve the 1.5°C pathway, global emissions must decrease by 42 percent by 2030 compared to 2019 levels—equivalent to an annual reduction of 7.5 percent. The report highlights the severe consequences of delayed action, warning that any further postponement would necessitate doubling the rate of emissions cuts after 2030.

Sectoral Solutions: Renewables and Reforestation Offer Hope

The report has identified solar and wind energy as key contributors to bridging the emissions gap. Together, these technologies could deliver 27 percent of the total emission reduction potential by 2030. Forest-related measures, including reforestation and reducing deforestation, offer another 20% potential. However, achieving these targets requires massive increases in investment—at least six times the current levels—and rapid deployment of policies across sectors.

NDCs and Climate Finance: Critical Areas for Focus

It has also stressed the importance of the upcoming NDC submissions.  According to the report, these commitments, due before February 2025, must reflect higher ambitions, concrete plans, and robust financial backing to make meaningful progress toward net-zero emissions. Developing countries, in particular, require international support and reformed financial systems to meet their climate goals.

Urgency and Cooperation are Paramount

UNEP has underlined the need for a whole-of-government approach and stronger public-private partnerships to accelerate progress. “We are running out of time,” the report warns. “The transformation to net-zero economies is inevitable, and the sooner we act, the more lives, ecosystems, and economies we can save.”

The report has identified the COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, as a crucial time for nations to align their policies with 1.5°C pathways. Without immediate, ambitious actions, UNEP cautions that 2°C—once the backup target—could soon become unreachable.

“With the clock ticking down to 2030 and 2035, the message is unequivocal: ambition without action is meaningless. Governments must move from pledges to policies and ensure that commitments are backed by robust implementation plans,” says the report.

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Excerpt:

“We’re playing with fire, but there can be no more playing for time. We’re out of time,” says UN Secretary General António Guterres

By Humberto Márquez
CARACAS, Oct 24 2024 – Migration, trade, the defence of democracy, the confrontation with China and the collapse of multilateralism are issues that shed more doubts than certainties on Latin America’s expectations of the imminent presidential elections in the United States.

Interest and tension have grown after dozens of polls and bookmakers have shown similar chances of victory for Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, particularly in a few decisive states.“After Washington’s retreat from the wars it got into in the Middle East, there is resistance among people to getting involved in the world’s problems, which weakens the liberal democratic order”: Vilma Petrash.

Latin America has been treated by many US administrations as its ‘backyard’, but it is now commonplace that Washington’s international priority lies far from the region.

Nevertheless, “we should not underestimate the ways in which Democrats and Republicans are different”, warned Tullo Vigevani, former professor of international relations at Brazil’s Paulista State University.

“For example, their proposals and policies are very different on the environment, in general and in relation to Latin America; on renewable energy and biofuels – particularly in the case of Brazil – and regarding human rights and some authoritarian trends in the region”, Vigevani told IPS from Sao Paulo.

Even if some governments are more sympathetic to Harris or Trump, Vigevani believes that both Washington and the region’s capitals will seek understandings and a relationship as normal as possible, after the 5 November election.

Migrants in the Mexican border city of Tijuana approach the barrier that closes access to the United States. Credit: Alejandro Cartagena / IOM

Migration rules

Among the campaign issues, such as economy and employment, taxes, health, wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and the opposing personalities of both candidates, migration stands out, with Latin American countries being the main expellers of migrants to the United States.

“It is a sensitive issue for Americans, whether they are Democrats, Republicans or independents. It affects the immigrant population, the millions of refugees, and therefore the countries of Latin America,” Vilma Petrash, a Venezuelan professor of political science and international relations at Miami Dade College, told IPS.

Of the 336 million people living in the United States, 46.2 million were of foreign origin in 2022, according to the non-governmental Pew Research Center; 49% are already U.S. citizens, 24% are legal permanent residents, and the rest, more than 11 million people, are unauthorised immigrants, eight million of whom are from Latin American and Caribbean countries.

In fact, the United States is currently home to 65 million ‘Hispanics’, as Latin Americans are called in the country, according to different reports, and they have become a desired prize for the two candidates.

Trump, who pushed for the construction of a wall on the southern border during his presidency (2017-2021), now offers massive deportations of illegals – one million immediately, according to his vice-presidential candidate, James Vance -, and to contain irregular border immigration even by using the military.

They are “the enemy within”, Trump has said, and has stigmatised migrants: he said that criminals from Venezuela have left their country for the United States, “leaving Caracas as one of the safest cities in the world”, or that Haitians “are eating the pets” in the northern industrial state of Ohio.

Harris, who is the current vice-president and lead programmes with which president Joe Biden also tried to address causes of migration, such as poverty in Central America, has said that the immigration system “needs reform”, without going into details.

Whichever side wins, the controls will predictably increase, and Washington’s announcement that it will not renew in 2025 the temporary stay permits (parole), which allow Venezuelans, Haitians, Cubans and Nicaraguans to enter and remain in the United States for two years, was a warning sign.

The US aircraft carrier USS Nimitz sails through the Arabian Gulf. Credit: US Army

The United States isolates itself

The migration issue shows the United States’ willingness to isolate itself, to withdraw, instead of taking a proactive approach, as a great global power, to solving problems in the region and the world.

According to Petrash, “after Washington’s retreat from the wars it got into in the Middle East, there is resistance among people to getting involved in the world’s problems, which weakens the liberal democratic order. Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ policies are a case in point”.

The expert said from Miami, in the southeastern state of Florida, that there is also a lack of consensus over foreign policy, and in general over governance, to the point that a part of the population still, countering evidence, supports the version that it was Trump and not Biden who won the election four years ago.

While Biden has consistently supported Ukraine in the war against Russia, and Israel’s current military offensive in the Middle East, his political action in favour of democracy in Latin America has been weaker, and Harris would continue this, although with revisions, according to Petrash.

This is despite the certainty that, for example, among the alternatives for containing regional migration, in which the exodus of more than seven million Venezuelans in the last decade stands out, is to promote a solution to the democratic crisis in that country.

As a result of its policies and omissions, its polarised political confrontation and doubts about its electoral system, and the rise of isolationism, the United States “would have to regain the moral stature necessary to help stem democratic backsliding in the region”, says Petrash.

These setbacks are expressed in left-wing governments with authoritarian tendencies, such as those in Nicaragua and Venezuela, but also in sectors that have backed right-wing presidencies such as those of Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022) in Brazil and the current administrations of Javier Milei in Argentina and Nayib Bukele in El Salvador.

Bolsonaro, Milei and Bukele have openly identified with Trump, whose sector harbours a far-right conservative current. For Petrash, this could favour a rapprochement with Latin American countries where there is a democratic backlash.

Unloading wind turbines from China at the port of Bahía Blanca, Argentina. It shows China’s penetration into the renewable energy sector in the Southern Cone, where it is already a major trading partner. Credit: Port of Bahía Blanca

China moves forward

Petrash points out that the United States’s international retreat was acute in Latin America, “its natural strategic zone”, after the failure of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) initiative in 2005. “It abandoned its vision of free trade in the region and let China move forward with its enclaves,” she said.

China, “an economic, political and ideological rival, has sold itself as successful authoritarianism, and has taken advantage of Washington’s absences in Latin America to advance its quiet, pragmatic diplomacy,” says Petrash.

Trade between China and Latin America reached US$480 billion in 2023 after increasing 35-fold in 2000-2022, while the region’s total trade with the world increased four-fold, according to the  Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). Nevertheless, trade with the Asian giant is still far from the region’s trade with the United States, which in the same year amounted to US$1.14 trillion.

Relations between Latin America and China “have grown and even strengthened in strategic areas such as new materials for energy production, lithium batteries -South America has large reserves of the mineral-, or artificial intelligence”, Vigevani states.

Certification of Brazilian meat for export. Brazil is the largest exporter of beef and poultry, and very active in the World Trade Organization. Credit: Abrafrigo

Brazil and Mexico

Meanwhile, Brazil is concerned about Washington’s disdain – which will be evident if Trump wins – for multilateral institutions, starting with the United Nations and the proposed renewal of its Security Council in order to make it effective.

For Vigevani, this distancing from multilateralism is illustrated by the blockade, which Washington has maintained since 2020, on the appointment of new members to the dispute settlement body of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), initiated by Trump and continued by Biden.

“Even if relations with Brazil and Latin America in general look normal, this United States refusal raises doubts for the future, because it is saying it is not interested in multilateral organisations,” said Vigevani.

In the case of a Trump victory, the Brazilian professor points out, there are also unanswered questions about what his war and peace policies will be.

An example is the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Trump has said that “ending this war quickly is in the best interest of the United States” and that he can achieve “a peace agreement in one day”, without offering further details, said Vigevani.

“It is important because, despite the war, Brazil has a strong relationship with Russia, and a very active participation in the Brics group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa),” Vigevani recalled.

According to Petrash, with Trump’s international policy, “the great power can be the bull in the china shop, and even more, the bull isolating itself in the china shop”.

At the other end of the region is Mexico, a partner of Canada and the United States in the trade agreement known as USMCA, which replaced in 2020 the North American Free Trade Agreement that has existed since 1994.

Along with maintaining the 3150-kilometre southern border of the United States, a destination for hundreds of thousands of migrants who cross the region each year, Mexico faces the campaign promise from both Harris and Trump that they intend to revise the USMCA as soon as they reach the White House.

Trump is expected to introduce tariffs and protectionist barriers, for example on Mexican production involving Chinese parts or technologies, and Harris is expected to increase environmental and labour requirements that favour industries with United States labour.

Whichever side wins, “with the new American policy of bringing companies back to the United States or to its partners in the USMCA, possibly the biggest issue now is the end of globalisation and the return to a developmentalist nationalism”, summarised Vigevani.