By Johan Mikaelsson
COLOMBO, Oct 25 2024 – Anyone interested in unsolved murders and disappearances will find much to study in Sri Lanka. Fifteen to twenty years ago, the country made global headlines, not only for the government’s military offensive against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) guerrillas but also for the numerous murders of journalists. The newly elected president, Anura Kumara Dissanayake—often referred to as AKD—seems determined to address the culture of impunity.

Local press freedom organizations in Sri Lanka have documented 44 cases of murdered and disappeared journalists and media workers between 2004 and 2010. International media watchdogs report lower numbers due to narrower definitions of who qualifies as a journalist. Regardless, it is well known that many journalists risk their lives. To date, no one has been convicted for the crimes committed against individual journalists or entire newsrooms.

One of the most iconic and globally recognized cases is the murder of Lasantha Wickrematunge, who was killed in his car on January 8, 2009, on his way to work in Colombo. As the editor-in-chief of the influential English-language newspaper Sunday Leader, Wickrematunge was a vocal critic of the government and a prominent figure in public debates.

The Rajapaksa brothers, ex-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his brother Mahinda, allegedly obstructed investigations into his murder as well as those involving journalists and members of parliament. Yet, the Wickrematunge family remains hopeful that justice will not only be served for Lasantha but also for all murdered journalists and their families, colleagues, and society as a whole.

Lal Wickrematunge, former owner of the now-defunct Sunday Leader, explained that a new process has begun, gaining momentum since the September 21 presidential election.

“This election was crucial because what’s needed now is political will, just political will,” Lal stated.

He had received assurances from two major presidential candidates, Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, that the investigations would resume post-election.

“They requested to bring back retired CID inspectors to see if they can finally close these cases,” he added.

Since Dissanayake’s clear victory and his formation of an interim government, Lal confirmed that these promises have been fulfilled so far. With parliamentary elections set for November 14, Dissanayake’s leftist coalition, National People’s Power, is projected to secure a majority.

“The new president has reinstated investigators who were previously dismissed or even imprisoned on fabricated charges. These investigators are now back to work, aiming to bring those responsible for journalists’ murders—both in the South and North—to justice,” Lal said.

Hope for Accountability

After the election results were announced, a curfew was imposed, and security was heightened at international airports to prevent former politicians implicated in various crimes from leaving the country. With the upcoming parliamentary elections, Lal remains optimistic.

“I believe this is a step in the right direction. So far, the president has earned the trust of even those who didn’t vote for him, and it looks like his party will win a solid majority in parliament. He’s promised transparency and good governance, and he’s staying true to his word, gaining the confidence of people across the country,” Lal explained.

He then recalled the events of January 2009, when his brother Lasantha was murdered. Four men on two motorcycles smashed the windows of Lasantha’s car. Witnesses didn’t hear any gunshots, but Lasantha had a hole in his skull with no exit wound, and no bullets or gunpowder residue were found. It’s believed the killers used a bolt gun—typically used to slaughter livestock—which they concealed in a rolled-up newspaper.

The suspected mastermind behind the murder is Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who served as president from 2019 to 2022. After several months of widespread protests (known as Aragalaya, which means struggle in Sinhala) against his government over claims of resource mismanagement, fuel shortages, and skyrocketing food prices, he resigned. Rajapaksa, who returned to Sri Lanka after his resignation, now lives off the state like four other former presidents.

As Secretary of Defense from 2005 to 2015, Gotabaya allegedly ordered the assassination. The motive was linked to Sunday Leader’s reporting on corruption, particularly in the purchase of used Russian-made MIG fighter jets from Ukraine, where Rajapaksa was implicated as the main beneficiary. Rajapaksa sued the newspaper for defamation, and a court hearing was scheduled for 2009, but the case never proceeded due to Lasantha’s murder.

The Fight for Justice Continues

Though it has been 15 years since Lasantha’s death, his legacy endures, as do the memories of other murdered journalists. Of the 44 documented cases, 41 involved Tamil journalists. Many Sri Lankan journalists in exile, including those associated with JDS Lanka (Journalists for Democracy in Sri Lanka), continue to report on the situation back home.

In 2021-2022, a legal initiative called “A Safer World for the Truth” took place in The Hague under the auspices of The People’s Tribunal on the Murder of Journalists. This project, led by the Permanent People’s Tribunal in collaboration with Free Press Unlimited, Reporters Without Borders, and the Committee to Protect Journalists, reviewed three murder cases, including Lasantha’s.

Nishanta Silva, the lead investigator in the case, now in exile in Switzerland, presented evidence pointing to the involvement of the “Tripoli Platoon,” a secret military unit directly under Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s control.

Although targeted killings of journalists have ceased since 2009, Sri Lanka remains far down in global rankings for press freedom. In Reporters Without Borders’ Press Freedom Index, Sri Lanka ranks 150th out of 180 countries—a grim reflection of the ongoing challenges. Tamil journalists in the north face the greatest difficulties.

Press Freedom in Northern Sri Lanka: Challenges and Resilience

In Jaffna, the largest city in northern Sri Lanka with a population of 170,000, a vibrant Press Club brings together many local journalists who support one another. Similar press clubs exist in Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu, two other northern cities.

In October 2020, Mullaitivu Press Club president, journalist Shanmugam Thavaseelan, and photojournalist Kanapathipillai Kumanan were investigating illegal logging when a group of men approached and attacked them as they were photographing and filming a stack of about 200 tree trunks.

Both Thavaseelan and Kumanan were brutally beaten, with Thavaseelan losing two teeth. They spent three days in the hospital. Thavaseelan’s missing teeth serve as a lasting reminder of the assault.

During the attack, they were forced to delete the contents of a memory card; one card went missing, and one camera was damaged. The two journalists were also robbed of about 50,000 rupees, equivalent to USD 150. Their investigation revealed that the illegal logging was extensive and involved local authorities.

The attackers were identified and arrested by the police but were released on bail after a month. Four years later, the case remains ongoing in court.

“No journalist has been murdered or disappeared since 2009-2010. But they harass us and try to intimidate us in other ways. Over the past ten years, I’ve been involved in five court cases,” says Thavaseelan.

Journalists covering routine news, sports, and cultural events typically face no issues. However, those investigating corruption or misconduct often find themselves in trouble. Most journalists rely on motorcycles for transportation, making them vulnerable on the roads, where there have been multiple incidents of cars deliberately trying to run them over.

“There is no specific legal protection for journalists while we’re doing our work, unlike for government employees,” Thavaseelan explains.

Kumanan, who monitors and reports on the Mullaitivu region, is constantly under surveillance by military intelligence personnel. In this area, there is one Sinhalese soldier for every three Tamil civilians, and they regularly check on Kumanan and track his movements.

“I know my rights, and I stand up for myself, which usually makes them back off,” Kumanan says.

A Struggle for Justice

Freddy Gamage, a Sinhalese journalist from Negombo near Colombo, is president of the Sri Lanka Web Journalists Association and works to strengthen the bonds between journalists and press freedom advocates in the north and south. Over the years, he too has been the target of attacks.

“Our struggle for justice is incredibly difficult and has been going on for over a decade. It’s hard to see how justice will be served, even if the government changes, given how successive Sri Lankan governments have acted in the UN in Geneva, where these issues are raised,” Gamage says.

“But we can’t give up. We need to continue our efforts to unite journalists from the north, east, and south. After the elections, we need to consider what steps we can take, both nationally and internationally, to secure justice,” Gamage explains.

Every year, memorials for murdered journalists are held, where colleagues gather to renew their calls for justice. With the recent change in government, there is hope, but realizing justice will require strong political will, hard work, and perseverance.

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By Kevin P. Gallagher and Abebe Shimeles
BOSTON, USA & CAPE TOWN, South Africa, Oct 25 2024 – At the 2021 UN Climate Summit, Barbados prime minister Mia Mottley called for more and better use of special drawing rights (SDRs), the International Monetary Fund’s reserve asset.

The special drawing right is an international reserve asset created by the IMF. It is not a currency—its value is based on a basket of five currencies, the biggest chunk of which is the US dollar, followed by the euro. It is a potential claim on the freely usable currencies of IMF members. Special drawing rights can provide a country with liquidity.

Countries can use their special drawing rights to pay back IMF loans, or they can exchange them for foreign currencies.

As Mottley is the newest president of the Climate Vulnerable Forum and Vulnerable Group of 20 (V20) finance ministers, which represents 68 climate-vulnerable countries that are among those with the most dire liquidity needs, including 32 African countries, her call would be directly beneficial to African countries.

In August 2021, as the shock from the COVID-19 pandemic battered their economies, African countries received a lifeline of US$33 billion from special drawing rights. This amounts to more than all the climate finance Africa receives each year and more than half of all annual official development assistance to Africa.

This US$33 billion did not add to African countries’ debt burden, it did not come with any conditions, and it did not cost donors a single cent to provide.

IMF members can vote to create new issuances of special drawing rights. They are then distributed to countries in proportion to their quotas in the IMF. Quotas are denominated in special drawing rights, the IMF’s unit of account.

Quotas are the building blocks of the IMF’s financial and governance structure. An individual member country’s quota broadly reflects its relative position in the world economy. Thus, by design, the poorest and most vulnerable countries receive the least when it comes to quotas and voting shares.

Special drawing rights cannot solve all of Africa’s economic challenges. And their highly technical nature means they are not always well understood. But at a time when African countries are facing chronic liquidity challenges—most countries in the region are spending more on debt service payments than they are on health, education, or climate change—our new research shows that special drawing rights can play an important role in establishing financial stability and enabling investments for development.

Financial stability includes macroeconomic stability (such as low inflation, healthy balance of payments, sufficient foreign reserves), a strong financial system and resilience to shocks.

African leaders are approaching a critical year-long opportunity: in November, the first Group of 20 (G20) summit will convene (with the African Union in attendance as a member for the first time). Then in December, South Africa assumes the G20 presidency.

As African leaders advocate for reforms to the international financial architecture, maximising the potential of special drawing rights should be a central component of their agenda.

The problem

African countries’ finances are facing tough times. External debt in sub-Saharan Africa has tripled since 2008. The average government is now spending 12% of its revenue on external debt service. The COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and rises in interest rates and the prices of commodities, like food and fertiliser, have all contributed to this trend.

Debt restructuring mechanisms have also proved inadequate. Countries like Zambia and Ghana got stuck in lengthy restructurings. Weak institutional capacity and poor governance also impede efficient use of public resources.

At the same time, African economies need to increase investment to advance development, support a young and growing population, develop climate resilience and take advantage of the opportunity presented by the energy transition.

To meet the resources for a just energy transition and the attainment of the UN 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, investment in climate and development will have to increase from around 24% of GDP (the average for Africa in 2022) to 37%.

Special drawing rights have proved to be an important tool in addressing these challenges. Research by the IMF and others shows that African countries significantly benefited from the special drawing rights they received in 2021 to stabilise their economies. And this happened without worsening debt burdens or costing advanced economies any money, particularly as they cut development aid.

However, advanced economies exercise significant control over the availability of special drawing rights. The IMF’s quota system determines both voting power and their distribution. Advanced economies control most of the IMF’s quotas.

The advanced economies made the right decision in 2021 and in 2009 to issue new special drawing rights and the time has come again.

The solution

African and other global south leaders need to make a strong case for another issuance of special drawing rights at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington.

In addition to a new issuance of special drawing rights, advanced economies still need to be pressured to re-channel the hundreds of billions of special drawing rights sitting idle on their balance sheets into productive purposes.

The 2021 allocation of special drawing rights amounted to US$650 billion in total. But only US$33 billion went to African countries due to the IMF’s unequal quota distribution. Meanwhile, advanced economies with powerful currencies and no need for special drawing rights received the lion’s share.

The African Development Bank has spearheaded one such proposal alongside the Inter-American Development Bank. Under this plan, countries with unused special drawing rights could re-channel them to the African Development Bank as hybrid capital, allowing the bank to lend around $4 for each $1 of special drawing rights it receives.

The IMF approved the use of special drawing rights as hybrid capital for multilateral development banks in May. But it set an excessively low limit of 15 billion special drawing rights across all multilateral development banks.

Even so, advanced economies have been slow to re-channel special drawing rights. The close to $100 billion that have been re-channeled—mostly to IMF trust funds—is meaningful.

But it still falls short of what should have been re-channelled.

In the long term, IMF governance reforms are needed to avoid a repeat of the inefficient distribution of special drawing rights.

As African countries rightly push to change shortcomings of the international financial architecture, new special drawing rights issuances should be at the centre of such a strategy. The IMF’s 2021 special drawing rights issuance showed the tool’s scale and importance. And special drawing rights re-channelling has had positive effects in easing debt burdens and freeing up financing to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

With 2030 approaching and the window shrinking for climate action, global leaders should be using all the tools at their disposal, including special drawing rights, to build a more resilient future.

Kevin P. Gallagher, Professor of Global Development Policy and Director, Global Development Policy Center, Boston University and Abebe Shimeles, Honorary Professor, University of Cape Town

Note: This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Kevin P. Gallagher is from Boston University and Abebe Shimeles from the University of Cape Town

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By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 25 2024 – With the emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) and social media, the dissemination of public information moves at a faster speed than ever before. Social media platforms have become an integral tool for users of younger generations to access the news. Although this shift has led to public news being more accessible to younger users, it has also led to an overall decline in media literacy.

According to a study by the Pew Research Center, approximately 54 percent of U.S. adults get their news from social media platforms such as X (formerly known as Twitter), Tiktok, Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube.

In an increasingly digital age, media literacy has seen a significant decline. Experts have attributed this to the rise of social media, which has led to shorter attention spans among younger generations. Gloria Mark, PhD, professor of informatics at the University of California, states that the average attention spans recorded in 2004 were about two and a half minutes. In the last five years, this has dwindled to about 47 seconds.

Social media platforms offer users a rapidly changing and endless flow of content, which has a negative impact on attention spans. Constant switches from one source of stimuli to another have adverse effects on the default network of the brain and its functions, making it difficult for users to maintain attention.

A study published by the University of British Columbia titled Mind-wandering as spontaneous thought: a dynamic framework, states that “attention and the focus of thoughts frequently shift back and forth between the internal and external environment; there is often a simultaneous deactivation of the DN (default network of the brain) in many different task paradigms”.

While news organizations have social media accounts in an effort to spread the truth and get more engagement, they find themselves being overshadowed by content creators who can more effectively captivate the short attention spans of internet users. These users often incorporate sensationalized language and spread false narratives.

The same study from the Pew Research Center reports that 64 percent of adults surveyed reported feeling confused on what is real or not due to the misinformation or ‘clickbait’ that runs rampant on social platforms. 23 percent reported that they shared false information either knowingly or unknowingly.

Misinformation, while not always intentionally harmful, can have negative effects on the relationship between experts and the public. “Polarization on topics such as climate change and vaccines has damaged public trust in science, which makes it harder for scientists to serve society,” said Dr Ataharul Chowdhury, an agricultural scientist at the University of Guelph.

The rise of generative AI in media spaces has added a layer of complication, as social analysts describe it as an amplifier for misinformation. The field of AI is largely unregulated and offers users the tools to create hyper realistic images and photos that could easily deceive viewers.

As Gita Johar, the Meyer Feldberg Professor of Business at Columbia Business School, Columbia University explained, the presence of AI and the “amount of misinformation” created in social media sites is going to multiply.

“People have started realizing that AI is behind a lot of this misinformation. Over time, they’re not going to know what to trust anymore, plus there’s such a deficit of trust in society as it is. As AI does more and more, even if you have disclaimers saying such and such was produced by AI, what you’re going to see is consumers becoming more skeptical of information,” she said.

The effects of the decline in media literacy has significant ramifications on the ways that people conduct their daily practices, inlcuding when it comes to food. Facts about the relationship between the meat industry and food production have been largely divisive among the American public.

According to the United Nations (UN), the meat production industry is a significant contributor to the climate crisis, emitting more greenhouse gasses than the world’s biggest oil companies. Additionally, meat production is responsible for dwindling water resources and exacerbates deforestation.

A 2023 survey conducted by the Washington Post-University of Maryland reports that 74 percent of Americans think that meat production and consumption has little to no detrimental impact on the environment.

A report published by Changing Markets Foundation (CMF) used opinion mining and language processing algorithms to detect over 948,000 tweets from 1 June 2022 to 31 July 2023 that contained misinformation about meat production and its impacts, as well as false statements about alternative practices such as adopting plant-rich diets and consuming poultry instead of red meat.

CMF summarized the main sentiments found in misleading posts that focused on meat production and consumption. 78 percent of users disparaged alternatives of meat and dairy products and discredited their potential benefits for the environment and public health. 22 percent of users tweeted that meat consumption is wholly beneficial for the human body. Many users also attempted to refute scientific data on the environmental impact of global animal agriculture.

Misinformation surrounding agriculture and plant consumption has become widespread in the past two decades. Genetically modified crops and organic farming have been points of significant contention for both farmers and consumers in recent years.

While there are supporters for both sides of the argument, it is farmers and marketers who appeal to the consumer’s fears of health concerns and environmental damage to convince people to buy their products. “Agri-food misinformation creates anxiety, uncertainty and confusion among farmers and consumers,” says Chowdhury.

Transparent advertising is essential for the agriculture industry, especially in today’s climate where people do not know if they can trust the food that they are eating. “Businesses can lead the way here. Advertisers need to work together to make this happen. It’s good for them, and it’s good for society. It’s really a win-win. Then they can actually force platforms to abide by some kind of rules and procedures and make sure that they’re actually monitoring and trying to prevent the spread of misinformation,” says Johar.

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By Selahattin Selsah Pasali and Selim Raihan
BANGKOK, Thailand, Oct 25 2024 – In the coming decades, the Asia-Pacific region faces a series of challenges that threaten to exacerbate poverty. Among these, climate change, demographic shifts, particularly population ageing and the rise of digital technologies stand out as three interconnected global megatrends.

A recent technical paper supporting the Social Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2024 explores various scenarios on how climate change, demographic shifts and digitalization could impact poverty. It reveals that 266 million people could be at risk of falling into poverty by 2040.

This underscores the urgent need to strengthen and finance social protection systems across the region, as addressing these issues proactively is far more cost-effective than reacting to them later.

Understanding the megatrends

Climate change is increasingly evident, with rising temperatures, extreme weather and disrupted ecosystems impacting both the environment and economies. This poses a direct threat to livelihoods, especially for those dependent on agriculture and natural resources.

Population ageing is another significant trend. While longer life expectancy is positive, it strains social services, healthcare and pension systems. Without integrated policies to address these pressures, public resources, already strained by debt, could face further strain, risking economic instability.

Digital technologies advance rapidly, offering growth and efficiency benefits but also posing challenges. Job displacement and increased inequality are potential risks if these technologies are not managed inclusively. Balancing their benefits and risks is crucial for equitable progress.

The Impact on Poverty

Using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to project 2040 scenarios, varying degrees of climate change, demographic shifts, and digitalization show a stark contrast between optimistic and pessimistic outcomes, highlighting the crucial need to enhance social protection expenditures. Two scenarios are considered in the model with results presented in Figure 1:

• Optimistic scenario: This scenario assumes a 1.5-degree Celsius increase in global temperatures, that populations age in a healthy manner, and significant improvements are made by countries in ICT productive capacity by 2040. Under this scenario, the projected increase in poverty by 2040 is 199.8 million people or 6.5 per cent of the total population in the Asia-Pacific region.
• Pessimistic scenario: In contrast, the pessimistic scenario assumes a 2.0-degree Celsius increase in global temperatures, no progress in healthy ageing and insufficient advancements in ICT productivity. Here, the poverty headcount is projected to increase by 266.1 million people or 8.7 per cent of the total population.

Source: ESCAP elaborations based on GTAP model and household income and expenditure surveys from 27 countries available in ESCAP SPOT Simulator. Note: As per table 5.1, three global megatrends including climate change, demographic shifts, including ageing, and digitalization are introduced in the GTAP model as shocks.
 
The pessimistic scenario presumes a 2-degree Celsius rise in temperature, populations ageing in an unhealthy manner and countries slowly improving their ICT Productive Capacity. The optimistic scenario presumes a 1.5-degree Celsius rise in temperature, populations ageing in a healthy manner with less health expenditures needed and countries making significant improvements in their ICT Productive Capacity.

The difference between these scenarios illustrates the profound impact of each megatrend. Climate change is a major driver of increased poverty. For instance, under a pessimistic scenario, Kiribati, Nepal and Tonga could see their poverty rates rise by over 15 percentage points relative to the baseline.

Even with just a 1.5°C warming, the regional average poverty rate could increase by 2.8 percentage points, highlighting climate change’s significant impact on poverty. Population ageing is also a critical factor.

Without healthy ageing, an additional 10 million people might fall into poverty due to rising healthcare costs, with countries like Armenia, Kiribati, Maldives and Mongolia being especially vulnerable. Digitalization, though less impactful overall, has notable effects in specific countries like Türkiye, Viet Nam and Vanuatu, influencing differences between optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.

The urgent need for action

If social protection expenditures are not increased, the cost of mitigating the rise in poverty could be substantial. To counteract the projected poverty increases, approximately 6.2 per cent of GDP would need to be mobilized under the optimistic scenario.

The total cost would increase to 8.7 per cent of GDP in 2040 under the pessimistic scenario. These are lower-bound estimates as they assume governments could directly target affected households and seamlessly provide cash transfers.

The projected rise in poverty and associated costs underscore the urgent need for government action which necessitates stronger political will to match the associated investment needs. Empirical analysis supports several key policy recommendations.

Governments should implement policies for a just transition, which includes effective climate action to mitigate the economic and social impacts of both sudden and gradual disasters and to support the shift towards a net-zero emissions economy.

Additionally, strategies for healthy ageing and investing in healthcare infrastructure, such as universal social health protection, can ease the financial strain of an ageing population, ensuring social stability and economic prosperity.

At the same time, policymakers should also focus on fostering inclusive digital economies, providing opportunities for all, including those at risk of being left behind. Investments in digital literacy and skills training are crucial to counteract digital disruption’s negative effects.

Overall, expanding social protection coverage and increasing benefit levels are essential. This includes implementing social protection floors and gradually enhancing multi-pillared systems to cover more individuals and increase benefits, ensuring no one is excluded from protection against life cycle contingencies and shocks.

Originally published as an opinion piece by Nikkei Asia.

Selahattin Selsah Pasali is Social Affairs Officer, Social Development Division, ESCAP; Selim Raihan is Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka and Executive Director of South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM)

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