By Joseph Chamie
PORTLAND, USA, Oct 30 2024 – Alarmists, mainly politicians, economists and wealthy elites, are announcing that the world’s demographic sky is collapsing. The world’s demographic sky is not collapsing but simply changing.

And that demographic change should not be blamed on the emancipation of women. It’s also somewhat perplexing that the alarmists don’t give consideration to the failure of men as a major contributing factor to the world’s changing demographic sky.

In general, men have neither recognized nor adjusted to the major economic, social and cultural changes that have taken place at the workplace, the community and the household as well as in their personal relationships with women.

Ranging from a global low of 0.72 births per woman in South Korea, many developed and developing countries around the world had a fertility rate in the past year well below the replacement level, including Brazil, China, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States

The exceptional high rates of global population growth and relatively young age structures that were experienced during the second half of the 20th century are over.

It is also indeed the case that many countries worldwide are expected to experience population decline and population ageing over the coming decades.

In the early 1960s world population grew at a record high of 2.3 percent, global fertility rate was five births per woman and the world’s median age was 21years. Today the world’s population growth rate is estimated at 0.9 percent, the global fertility rate is slightly more than two births per woman and the world’s median age is 31 years.

By mid-century the growth rate of the world’s population is expected to decline to 0.4 percent. At that time the global fertility rate is expected to have fallen to two births per woman with the world’s median age increasing to 37 years.

The declines in demographic growth rates accompanied by population ageing are largely the result of the reproductive decisions made by millions of women and men concerning the number and spacing of births. Those decisions are based largely on their personal desires and social and economic circumstances.

The world’s population is now slightly more than 8 billion, having quadrupled during the past hundred years. Nearly all demographers appreciate that world population will likely peak during the current century

According to the United Nations projections (medium variant), the world’s population is projected to continue growing, likely peaking at 10.3 billion in about sixty years. After reaching that level, the world’s population is expected to decline slowly to 10.2 billion by the close of the 21st century (Figure 1).

Source: United Nations.

Despite the expected additional two billion people on the planet, alarmists fret by noting that for the first time since the Black Death in the 14th century, the planet’s human population is going to decline. They are distressed and declare that many countries are facing the dire prospects of demographic collapse.

The expected declines in the population size of many countries over the coming decades is largely the result of fewer births than deaths. And the reason for the fewer births is below replacement fertility levels, i.e., less than about 2.1 births per woman.

More than one hundred countries, representing two-thirds of world’s population, are experiencing below replacement fertility (Figure 2).

Source: United Nations.

In 2023, the populations of some 80 countries and areas experienced a fertility rate below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. Ranging from a global low of 0.72 births per woman in South Korea, many developed and developing countries around the world had a fertility rate in the past year well below the replacement level, including Brazil, China, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States (Figure 3).

Source: National surveys and United Nations.

In the absence of compensating immigration, most of the countries with below replacement level fertility are facing the prospects of demographic decline accompanied by considerable population aging. Among the countries facing population decline in the coming years are China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, South Korea and Ukraine (Figure 4)

Source: United Nations.

Who’s responsible for the below replacement fertility that’s resulting in demographic decline and population ageing in countries around the world?

According to many alarmists, the emancipation of women is responsible because emancipated women are simply choosing not to have enough births to ensure their country’s population growth.

In large part due to the ominous concerns being raised about population decline, many government officials and wealthy elites are urging and cajoling their female citizens to have more babies. Among their various pro-natalist policies, governments are offering cash incentives, child allowances, paid parental leave, flexible work schedules, affordable childcare and financial assistance to families.

For example, China recently announced its attempt to create a “birth-friendly society”. The government has announced various incentives, including establishing a childbirth subsidy system and various tax cuts for parents. In addition, families with multiple children would be given privileges in home purchasing, housing loans and larger homes.

Despite decades of pro-natalist efforts, governments worldwide have not been able to raise their fertility rates back to the replacement level. Some demographers have concluded that once a country’s fertility rate falls well below the replacement level, i.e., under 1.8 births per woman, it’s very difficult to raise it by any significant amount despite government policies, programs and spending.

The major and often sole focus of concern of alarmists is the national economy, i.e., growth of the GNP, production, consumption, labor force size, etc. Rarely do those alarmists ring warning bells or express serious anxieties about vital non-economic matters, such as climate change, environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, gender equality and human rights.

Rather than attempting to return to the population growth rates and age structures of the recent past, government officials, their economic advisors and wealthy elites need to recognize and adjust to the changing 21st century demographic sky. By doing so, they will be better prepared to plan and adapt to the wide-ranging social, economic, environmental and climatic benefits and opportunities as well as the many challenges that lie ahead.

Again, to be clear, the world’s demographic sky is not collapsing. It is simply changing to low or negative rates of national population growth accompanied by older age structures. And also instead of blaming the emancipation of women, the alarmists should seriously consider the failure of men as an important factor contributing to the world’s changing demographic sky.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 30 2024 – Although classified as a compact tropical cyclone and considered one of the smallest in the North Atlantic, Hurricane Oscar has caused considerable damage in eastern Cuba since it made landfall on October 20, 2024. Cuban authorities have confirmed that the death toll has risen to seven, in additional to the damage in infrastructure. Communications and relief efforts were greatly impeded by a nationwide power grid blackout, which continues on in much of Cuba at the time of publication.

Hurricane Oscar has led to significant flooding in some of the nation’s most densely populated regions such as San Antonio. “The main concern is just very heavy rainfall that’s occurring over portions of eastern Cuba right now that are likely producing significant flooding and even potentially some mudslides in that area,” said Philippe Papin, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center.

“The municipalities of San Antonio and Imías have been heavily battered by this event and there have even been levels of flooding that were not historically recorded in these two areas,” said Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel.

Harsh winds, torrential rain, and flooding from Oscar has left many civilian infrastructures compromised or completely ruined. The Cuban government informed reporters that 2-meter swells hit the coasts of Baracoa, leading to walls and roofs sustaining damage. The Guantánamo province ranks among one of the hardest hit regions, with more than one-thousand homes damaged by Oscar.

In a statement posted to X (formerly known as Twitter), the Cuban government confirmed that electricity access has been restored for approximately 88.12 percent of customers in Havana, the nation’s capital, early last week. According to the Energy Ministry of Cuba, other areas including Guantanamo and Santiago de Cuba struggle to conduct their daily lives with only forty to sixty percent connectivity. Service is believed to be inaccessible to much of Cuba still.

Cuba’s health minister José Angel Portal Miranda informed reporters that the country’s health facilities relied on the use of electricity generators as healthcare personnel tended to the injured. In a televised address on October 17, Cuban Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz indicated Cuba’s plan to conserve as much electricity as possible, so as to not leave the entire nation destitute. “We have been paralyzing economic activity to generate (power) to the population,” he said.

Thousands of Cubans rallied on the streets to protest the nationwide lack of power, beginning on October 21.

“We’ve gone four days without electricity. Our food is going bad. Our kids are suffering. We don’t have water”, said Marley Gonzalez, a Cuban resident who participated in the protest.

President Díaz-Canel urged protesters to voice their opinions with “discipline” and “civility” saying, “We are not going to accept nor allow anyone to act with vandalism and much less to alter the tranquility of our people. That’s a conviction, a principle of our revolution.”

Many Cubans have shifted blame to the U.S. government for its six-decade long embargo on fuel supplies to Cuba. “The most absurd thing is that they have applied a criminal blockade against us for more than 65 years. We have not had stable fuel supplies so that the system can operate at its full capacity and with all its stability,” President Díaz-Canel stated.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre responded to these comments, explaining that the “long-term mismanagement of its economic policy and resources has certainly increased the hardship of people in Cuba”.

The recent outages have caused concern among Cuban officials and humanitarian organizations, with many fearing that the recurring blackouts could signal the wake of a humanitarian crisis. The lack of power in Cuba has made relief efforts increasingly difficult for aid personnel. According to President Díaz-Canel, much of Cuba remains inaccessible due to the effects of Oscar. “Adding a hurricane hit on top of the existing power failure can make the hurricane impact far worse, further risking lives and resulting in challenges in preparing for, responding to, and recovering from the hurricane’s impacts,” said Jon Porter, a chief meteorologist for AccuWeather.

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By Kizito Makoye
MUSOMA, Tanzania, Oct 30 2024 – At Gabimori primary school, located at Nyamagaro ward in Tanzania’s northern Rorya district, a 15-year-old  Florence Sadiki kneels among polyethylene bags, carefully examining the seedlings she and her classmates  have nurtured from tiny sprouts “We’ve planted many trees to make our school look better and to help fight climate change,” she says.

Sadiki is part of an inspiring grassroots movement in the east African country where students, teachers, and community members team up to fight environmental degradation through reforestation. In Rorya district, nestled on the shores of Lake Victoria, rampant deforestation driven by charcoal production has left the land barren. But the efforts of school environmental clubs, supported by the Lake Community Program (LACOP), are working to repair the damage.

The reality in Rorya is grim. Erratic rainfall and prolonged droughts have changed swathes of once-fertile land into dry savannas, a trend that has only accelerated since the initiative began in 2022. Spearheaded by the global charity World Neighbors and the Lake Community Development Foundation (LACODEFO), this initiative empowers students to plant trees and learn the entire process of growing them.

Daudi Lyamuru speaks during a village meeting to mobilize the community to plant trees and support the climate mitigation project. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

Pupils at Mwenge primary school pose for a photo after tree planting exercise. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

“We’re teaching students to set up their own nurseries,” says Idrisa Lema, the project officer. “It’s not enough to hand out seedlings. They need to learn the whole process—choosing drought-resistant species, improving soil with organic manure, and using techniques like mulching.” This holistic approach  promotes sustainability and equips students with transferable skills that can help them for the rest of their lives.

In the past two years, the students have successfully planted 2,800 trees across five villages, a remarkable achievement that has already begun to bear fruit. Some once-dry water springs are starting to flow again. Yet challenges remain, particularly in Nyamagaro and neighboring Kyangasaga villages, where erratic rainfall and drought continue to hinder progress.

“Watering the trees is tough,” admits Alex Lwitiko, an environmental teacher at Rorya Girls’ School. “We’ve had to be strict with the students—otherwise, the trees wouldn’t survive.”

To adapt, students have switched to innovative solutions like bottle irrigation and even drilled water wells to support their young trees. “We focus on drought-resistant species and organic farming methods to give the trees the best chance,” Lwitiko says, emphasizing the program’s commitment to teaching sustainability.

Sadiki herself has learned to adapt. “I know how to graft trees and grow them in tough conditions now,” she says. “These trees are our future. They fight climate change, provide shade, and even improve soil fertility.”

A government official, Aloycia Mdeme, plants a tree to signify the launch of the school environmental club. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

Mtoni Primary School pupils plant trees; this project has become central to the region’s contribution to climate change mitigation. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

In Tanzania, the impact of climate change is becoming increasingly severe. The country aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30 to 35 percent by 2030, a goal outlined in its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Despite its low carbon footprint—just 0.22 tons per capita compared to the global average of 7.58—Tanzania is reeling from climate-related disasters. Droughts, floods, and erratic weather patterns disrupt agriculture, drying up water sources and threatening economic stability.

For the rural poor, especially those who rely on farming—the backbone of the economy, making up 28 percent of GDP—the stakes are higher. But in places like Nyagisya and Rorya Girls Secondary Schools, students have taken up the fight. Through tree planting, they have become unlikely climate crusaders, tackling environmental degradation while improving food security and boosting local livelihoods.

The act of planting trees offers more than shade and fruit. It symbolizes a deeper mission—restoring soil, preserving water, and, for these students, delivering a form of climate justice. The reforestation efforts are in step with Tanzania’s broader plans to fortify its agriculture and water systems against the advancing climate crisis.

As these student-led initiatives flourish, they mirror Tanzania’s urgent call for global support. With limited resources, the country is striving to fulfill its commitments yet it recognizes that the battle against climate change is a collective endeavor that requires unity on a global scale.

Despite the promising efforts in Tanzania, significant challenges remain. One of the main hurdles is the unpredictability of funding. Tree-planting initiatives and climate adaptation programs require sustained financial support, but resources are often limited, local analysts say.

Without consistent funding, scaling up projects and maintaining long-term impact becomes difficult.

Community members plant trees in Rorya district. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS

While students have embraced environmental stewardship, not all local households are on board. In some areas, livestock continues to graze on young saplings, undoing the hard work of reforestation. Additionally, cultural and economic pressures, such as the reliance on charcoal for income and firewood for cooking, contribute to ongoing deforestation, making conservation efforts harder.

Erratic rainfall and worsening drought conditions present another barrier. Water scarcity makes it harder to nurture newly planted trees, despite innovative solutions. These conditions also strain local agriculture, which many families depend on, increasing the urgency of balancing conservation with survival needs.

While Tanzania has ambitious climate goals, the gap between policy and practical implementation remains wide, particularly in rural areas where the effects of climate change are felt most acutely. 

At Gabimori Primary School, students have embraced their role as environmental stewards. “They’ve seen how conservation affects their daily lives,” says teacher Witinga Mattambo. “They now understand the link between the trees and the food they eat.”

The impact is vivid for students like Sadiki. “I never realized trees were this important,” she says. “They bring rain and improve our environment.”

For Lema, this is only the beginning. By fostering leadership skills and engaging the broader community, the program is building a new generation of Tanzanians dedicated to environmental protection. “We’ve even seen parents get involved,” Lwitiko says. “They’re starting to plant trees in their own yards.”

Still, the program faces hurdles. Some households allow their livestock to graze on young saplings, undoing the hard work of the students. “It’s frustrating,” admits Lwitiko, “but we’re making progress, step by step.”

Lema has ambitious plans to expand the initiative.

“We’re training students to pass on their knowledge,” he says. “As they move on, they’ll teach younger students, and we’ll spread this effort to other schools.” But scaling the program will require more funding.

“We’re working on securing more resources and partnering with local governments to enforce tree-planting bylaws,” Lema explains. There are also plans to set up household tree nurseries, allowing families to earn extra income while contributing to conservation.

For Sadiki, the program’s impact is lasting.

“We have the duty to plant trees and protect our environment. It’s something we’ll carry with us for the rest of our lives.”

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By Rose Mwebaza
NAIROBI, Kenya, Oct 30 2024 – Some of the creeping impacts of this triple crisis are possibly the most debilitating: Africa is the most severely impacted region by desertification and land degradation, with approximately 45% of its land area affected. In the Horn of Africa and the Sahel alone, it imposes food shortages on more than 23 million people. Just last month, more than 700,000 people were affected by floods in Central and West Africa, and tens of millions in southern Africa are facing drought.

Desertification, drought, and land degradation don’t happen overnight, but pose a grave threat to long-term food sovereignty, gender equality, peace, and other development goals.

Africa is the world’s youngest continent, and its talents and resources are huge. The continent’s 54 countries have immense promise and power when they come together, as the budding African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement shows. And what may be true for trade is absolutely clear for addressing common environmental challenges.

As António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, has remarked, “Just as the injustice of climate change burns fiercely here in Africa, so do the opportunities.”

Rose Mwebaza

The continent is poised to demonstrate that through unity and coordinated action, it can lead the world towards a more just and sustainable future.

Back in November 2022, at the UN Climate Change Conference in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, working together, African governments helped broker a historic agreement on the establishment of a Loss and Damage Fund to support developing countries particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.

Subsequent gatherings of African environment ministers last year in Nairobi – for Africa Climate Week, the Africa Climate Summit and the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment – sustained this momentum.

Later in 2023, countries aligned in Dubai (COP28) to ensure that the Loss and Damage Fund would not be a mere promise but would be replenished with actual resources. When African states unite their efforts, they can achieve substantial results for the continent’s people.

The potential is evident on multiple other issues as well: an Accelerated Partnership for Renewables in Africa brings together countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, Namibia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and Zimbabwe, to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy across the continent and driving green industrialization.

A partnership between Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo to establish battery and Electric vehicle Special Economic Zone is yet another example of how African nations are leveraging their natural resources for sustainable development, setting the continent as a key player in the emerging green economy.

The African Ministerial Conference on the Environment in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire last August was another opportunity for Africa to flex its diplomatic muscles. It was possibly the last chance for all African Environment Ministers to gather in the same room to align policies and actions ahead of three critical global conferences on biodiversity, climate, and desertification later this year.

In these discussions, the importance of finance cannot be overstated. Consider that 33 of Africa’s countries are part of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) group, making them highly vulnerable to economic and environmental shocks. Consider that the average debt ratio in sub-Saharan Africa has almost doubled since 2013 and peaking at over 60 per cent, making new financing expensive and forcing spending cuts.

At the same time, there is a strong need for greater investment in science-policy interfaces, to better anticipate droughts and other environmental disasters by applying the best available scientific tools and adaptation measures.

A good start is by strengthening cross-border coordination, raising the political profile of environmental issues, and mobilizing the necessary resources to combat these threats. Another crucial step is to anchor the understanding that reversing trends in deforestation, soil aridification and land degradation is a potent economic opportunity.

There is a need to center local communities in decision-making on environmental policies affecting them, and to ensure their rights are respected and they can fully benefit from economic opportunities emerging from their lands.

From Mauritania to Djibouti, a Great Green Wall is steadily pushing against the expansive desert. Greening initiatives across Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, and Somalia, farming projects such as in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda are revitalizing soils and boosting the livelihoods of communities. Research shows how every very dollar invested in restoration can create up to 30 dollars in economic benefits.

When it comes to shaping the global environmental agenda, there’s a leadership role for Africa to seize. Africans of all walks of life are ready to do their part and reap the benefits it brings. And we know when 54 governments jointly flex their muscle, the continent moves fast and forward.

Dr. Rose Mwebaza is the Regional Director and Representative, UNEP Africa Office.

Source: Africa Renewal: a United Nations digital magazine that covers Africa’s economic, social and political developments—and the challenges the continent faces, and the solutions to these by Africans themselves, including with the support of the United Nations and international community.

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