By Erik Solheim
OSLO, Norway, Nov 12 2024 – The nation which more than any other caused the climate crisis will leave it to the rest of the world to sort out the mess.

That is a takeaway from the US election last week.

Erik Solheim

The numbers are clear: US emissions up to today are 8 times the Chinese, 25 times the Indian and the difference is even bigger if we compare with small island development states or with Africa. The US will leave it to the victims of climate change to save the planet.

This week the world comes together in Baku, Azerbaijan for the UN climate talks, on the eve of the hottest year since the 1200s. The meeting takes place a week after a flood which took more than 200 lifes in one of the world´s most developed states, Spain. The last years have seen wildfires in the Amazon, and in California, Greece and Turkey. Floods have caused massive damage in Pakistan and China. Northern India experienced 52 degrees last Summer in areas where very few people have access to air condition.

From every indicator – its time to act. To act now!

The bad news is that the world ´s most powerful leader believes we should do nothing.

The good news is that this matters much less than we tend to think.

Of course Trumps victory will make it more challenging to find compromises on financing and other issues in Baku. Leaders will ask why their nation shall act or indeed pay, if the US doesnt. Global climate diplomacy will be in jeopardy. We will probably also see a roll back of the financial support for domestic climate action in the US introduced by Biden . Trump will withdraw the US from the Paris agreement, may be even from the UN Climate Convention.

But still there is hope. I am confident we will win the struggle. Here is why:

Most importantly it´s China, India and Europe which are leading on climate, not the US, even under Biden. China is the indispensible nation for climate action not the US. Last year China contributed 2/3 of all global renewable energy. It produced 60% or more of everything green – electric cars, buses and batteries, solar panels and wind mills, hydropower and high speed rail. China is also the world´s largest tree planter, by far.

India is aiming for 500 gigawatt of solar, wind and hydro by 2030. Prime minister Modi is launching «green missions» for India by the day, for instance a program for ten million homes with solar panels. Indian states like Gujarat have massive green ambitions.

Indonesia, the second largest rain forest nation, has drastically reduced deforestation. Brazil is following.

Europe was once the climate leader, even if it is now surpassed by Asia. The Green New Deal brings green development to Europe.

China, India, Europe and many more dont act on climate to please America. They act because climate change is a huge threat to their nations. They act because climate action is an enormous opportunity for green jobs, profits and prosperity.

The world can do well without the US

Secondly the forces fighting for a cooler world are also strong in the US itself.

Powerful American states support climate action. California, New York and many other states will not relinqush green efforts, but probably fight Trump tooth and nail. The economy of California alone is among the ten biggest in the world.

Business is leading the charge, not the government. No major US business saluted when Trump last time took US out of Paris agreement. US business see opportunities for profits and jobs in climate action The efforts of the US tech industry to source green power for its data center is more important than most government programs.

Business will be lukewarm to Trump´s desire to curb US climate action. He has portrayed the shift to electric cars as a «win for Beijing». The opposite is obviously the case. If Detroit doesnt start turning out electic cars, China will capture the entire global market. The Chinese domestic car market is already bigger then the American, and its electric. Buses, scooters and taxis, half of all new cars in China, are now electric.

Noone who switched from gasolin to electric cars has ever returned. The electric cars are more hight tech, pollute less, make less noise and create a better driving experience. The global trend is towards electric cars.

US business will of course be vary to leave the market for electric cars or green energy totally in the hands of China.

Thirdly, while many feel despondant today, nothing stands still in politics. A majority of Americans said they dont like Trump, even on the day they elected him. Problem for the Democrats – they are even less loved.

On election day Americans endorsed abortion in referendum after referendum. Even very conservative states supported European style welfare policies in referendums. Minimum wages fared similarly well. 57% of the voters in deeply Republican Florida even wanted abortion up to 24 weeks, a non starter in liberal Europe.

All action creates counter action. The global and US anger Trump will cause may be exactly what a fairly docile global green movement needs?

Environmentalist need to be more people centered, and we will win.

Lastly the election of Trump may paradoxically create a more peaceful world and that will help the climate movement. He strongly argued in his campaign that the US should focus on its own borders, not on everyone else borders. The time of the Neocons, both democratic and Republican, who couldnt see a war they didnt like, may be over? Trump may focus US resources on real American foreign policy needs, not believing as the Neocons that every square meter of planet Earth is an American Security risk you neeed to fight for.

The war in Ukraine may end? There is very little reason to believe Ukraine will be in a stronger negotiation position down the road. Continued war will only bring more death and destruction. A compromise now will be painful for Ukraine but is in all likelihood the least bad outcome. Trump may bring that and then Climate will again be more centre stage in global politics.

At the end of the day the election of Trump signals that US decline as the dominant world power will accellerate. His protectionist economic policy will make US business less competitive. Decreased migration will reduce economic growth. Trump is less likely than Biden to be able to make allies. Domestic turmoil and polarization will continue. The global trend towards a multipolar world dominated by the Global South will speed up. After a century of US dominance in world affairs, the ascent of Asia is not necessarily bad for the planet?

Erik Solheim is a Norwegian diplomat and former politician. He served in the Norwegian government from 2005 to 2012 as Minister of International Development and Minister of the Environment, and as Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme from 2016 to 2018

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By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Nov 12 2024 – Gang violence has ravaged Haiti, causing thousands of civilian deaths, displacements, and violations of international humanitarian law. Turmoil is expected to escalate following the removal of Haitian Prime Minister Garry Conille from office on November 11.

On November 10, the Haitian government announced plans to replace incumbent prime minister Conille, with entrepreneur and former senate candidate Alix Didier Fils-Aimé. Conille responded by describing his termination as “illegal”, stating that the transition council of Haiti only has the power to appoint a prime minister, rather than dismissing one from office. Conille informed reporters that “this resolution, taken outside any legal and constitutional framework, raises serious concerns about its legitimacy.”

Since the beginning of Conille’s term, his efforts to eradicate gang violence, boost the nation’s economy, and eliminate hunger have been largely unsuccessful. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), Haiti remains one of the poorest countries in the world, with approximately half of the country facing acute food insecurity. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) states that approximately 5.5 million people require humanitarian assistance for survival. Basic services such as access to food, clean drinking water, healthcare, education, shelter, and psychosocial support are severely limited.

Shortly after the beginning of his term on June 3 of this year, Conille launched the Multinational Security Support (MSS) Mission in Haiti, a contingent mission backed by Kenya. However, following the deployment of 400 Kenyan officers in Haiti, nationwide gang violence surged and shifted to more vulnerable areas, like the Artibonite River region.

In an October 22 address to the United Nations (UN) Security Council, María Isabel Salvador, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the U.N. Integrated Office in Haiti, remarked that the MSS mission is severely underfunded, leading to 700,000 Haitians to be internally displaced.

“The security situation remains extremely fragile, with renewed peaks of acute violence. The situation in Haiti has regrettably worsened,” said Salvador. She added that the violence was once relatively contained to the Port-Au-Prince region but has escalated and expanded throughout the nation. Murders, kidnappings and sexual violence of “unprecedented brutality” remain frequent occurrences.

Georges Fauriol, a Haiti specialist and senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., opined that efforts by Conille to soothe tensions and remove gang activity have only aggravated brutalities committed by gangs.

“So here we are nearly mid-November and the Kenyans are nowhere near what was promised earlier in the summer and the gangs appear to have in some cases mutated to cartel-like operational ambitions, with an increasingly worrisome stream of arms and financing,” said Fauriol.

The recent transition of power is predicted to further destabilize the political and social climate of Haiti. Due to increased political instability, humanitarian organizations fear that armed groups will exploit Haiti’s state of vulnerability. Currently, the Haitian government lacks a Parliament and has not had a democratic election in years, creating a significant political vacuum.

As Fils-Aimé was sworn into office on the morning of November 11, armed gangs targeted Haiti’s international airport in Port-Au-Prince. The flight was diverted to the Dominican Republic. However, in other areas of Haiti, fights between gangs and police engulfed the capital, with some gangs setting homes on fire.

According to the U.S. Embassy, the attacks were “gang-led efforts to block travel to and from Port-au-Prince which may include armed violence, and disruptions to roads, ports, and airports”. With Haiti facing a lack of proper governance and political structure, gang violence will continue to escalate.

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By Xinyi Qu, Kareff Rafisura and Gomer Padong
BANGKOK, Thailand, Nov 12 2024 – When the first woman in space, Valentina Tereshkova, orbited the Earth in 1963, there were only three active Earth observation satellites. Today, the number is 114 times greater.

With more and better satellites, the impacts of advances in the space sector are particularly evident in agriculture, where space data improves insights into the individual components of these landscapes (land, water and forests), as well as their interconnections.

Sixty years since Valentina Tereshkova, women continue to play crucial roles in food production worldwide. In the Asia-Pacific region, two out of five agriculture workers are women. While they face disproportionate impacts from climate change, they are also driving climate solutions. How are they benefitting from the growing capability of the space sector to support agriculture?

YouTube Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkAXdPQvb6M

The importance of promoting and enhancing women’s participation in using space applications for sustainable development and disaster risk reduction was underscored in the 2018 Ministerial Declaration on Space Applications for Sustainable Development in Asia and the Pacific.

Guided by this aspiration, the United Nations’ regional commission, ESCAP, is actively working to help countries in the region advance gender inclusivity by ensuring that at least 30 per cent of participants in its capacity building activities on space applications are women.

While these gender inclusivity efforts are an important step, more needs to be done to make available space data accessible, affordable, and actionable.

Accessible: The percentage of women using the Internet in Asia and the Pacific stands at 63 per cent compared to 69 per cent of men. Closing this gender digital divide is indispensable towards enhancing women’s access to new information, skills and knowledge that could help them manage the impacts of climate on their livelihood resources (land, water, forest).

Targeted support to community-centered connectivity projects can complement broader policy actions and infrastructure development.

Affordable: Making space data affordable for women-led micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) can unleash product innovation and create opportunities for growth. One example is the Australia Space Data Analysis Facility which enhances the ability of SMEs to use Earth observation data by facilitating access to analysis-ready data and uptake of space data analytics, along with training, tools, and access to expertise.

Actionable: Geolocation can aid in developing locally relevant solutions. However, it is seldom sufficient considering that men and women experience the impacts of climate change differently and have unequal capacities to adapt. Engaging local women’s networks in tailoring solutions to the specific needs and contexts of women in different communities is key to making space data actionable.

The experience of the space agency of Thailand in promoting Dragonfly amongst its community of users demonstrates that women farmers are more likely to use space data when it is integrated with socio-economic information that provides multi-dimensional perspectives for farm-level decision-making.

The 2024 edition of ESCAP’s Compendium of Geospatial Practices for Sustainable Development contains examples of how space applications are used to boost crop monitoring and forecasting capabilities, increase precision and production efficiency, and enable adaptation to climate change.

CropWatch, a cloud-based platform developed by Chinese scientists integrates time-series remote-sensing data from multiple sources to monitor crop production and forecast trends. In Japan, a cloud-based service uses satellite and drone imagery to monitor crop growth and determine optimal harvest times allowing farmers to monitor crop health, increase yields, improve food quality, and reduce waste. In Mongolia, Earth observation data are used to provide crop productivity information throughout the growing season using cloud platform technology.

In terms of land management, the UralGIS agro-monitoring system in the Russian Federation uses satellite imagery to optimize agricultural land use. This system forms part of the unified federal information system and aids in determining plot boundaries and their agricultural suitability, enhancing land management through cadastral registration and 3D mapping for landscape analysis.

The Forest Geospatial Information System of the Republic of Korea is an example of how a spatial data infrastructure can underpin a forest management approach that balances environmental, economic, and social considerations.

These space applications have a remarkable potential for empowering women to thrive amidst a changing climate. Gender-responsive climate actions will take center stage at the COP29 this November as world leaders gather in Azerbaijan to raise collective ambitions.

Sixty years since the first woman went to space, it is time to double down efforts and ensure that women farmers also benefit from space-driven innovations – empowering them to play an active role in shaping climate solutions.

Xinyi Qu, Intern, ESCAP; Kareff Rafisura, Economic Affairs Officer, ESCAP; Gomer Padong, Institute for Social Entrepreneurship in Asia

Relevant SDGS:

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By Tanka Dhakal
BAKU, Nov 12 2024 – Scientists warn of vastly higher impacts on billions of people’s livelihood and cost to the global economy by the accelerating losses in the world’s snow and ice regions, aka the cryosphere.

Over 50 leading cryosphere scientists released an annual report on the status of the world’s ice stores on Tuesday (November 12) at the UN Climate Conference (COP29) in Baku. An updated report on the world’s ice warns of “drastically higher costs without immediate emissions reductions.” 

The State of the Cryosphere Report 2024 titled Lost Ice, Global Damage, coordinated by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI), says that current climate commitments are nowhere near to avoid irreversible consequences for billions of people from global ice loss.

After analyzing most recent cryosphere science, scientists underscore that the costs of loss and damage if our current level of emissions continues—leading towards a rise of 3°C or more—will be even more extreme, with many regions experiencing sea-level rise or water resource loss well beyond adaptation limits in this century. Reports say mitigation also becomes more costly due to feedback from thawing permafrost emissions and loss of sea ice.

For the first time, the report notes a growing scientific consensus that melting Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets may be slowing important ocean currents at both poles, with potentially dire consequences for a much colder northern Europe and greater sea-level rise along the U.S. East Coast.

Cryosphere scientists (ICCI) stress that only definitive and rapid measures to reduce emissions can avert the worst loss and damage impacts of ice and snow loss and cut the ultimate costs to vulnerable nations and high emitters alike.

“The drastic changes we are seeing in the cryosphere while mountain and downstream regions all over the planet are suffering floods, droughts, and landslides provide the most compelling arguments we could have for immediate climate action,” said Regine Hock, an IPCC author and glaciologist. “The cryosphere can’t wait. It must be put at the top of the global climate agenda.”

To underscore the situation, scientists gave an example of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is currently losing 30 million tons of ice per hour, “something I never thought I would see in my lifetime,” said IPCC scientist Dr. Rob DeConto. “If climate pledges are not taken seriously, global temperature rise may exceed 3°C, with Antarctic ice loss potentially causing sea levels to rise much faster than we think.”

Cryosphere scientists are pleading for urgent climate action to avoid catastrophe for coastal cities and downstream communities in the mountain regions.

Dr. James Kirkham, an author on the report, said, “We are not talking about the distant future; the impacts of cryosphere loss are already felt by millions. But the speed of action we take today decides the size and speed of the challenge to which future generations will need to adapt. The impacts of cryosphere loss will only become greater with every hour that leaders delay action now.”

Impact is not only limited to coastal or ice sheet regions but also impacts the day-to-day livelihood of Himalayan regions too.

“There is a very clear connection between changes in the cryosphere in high mountain regions and downstream impacts,” climate scientist Dr. Miriam Jackson said. “Some of these are related to hazards, including thawing of permafrost (frozen ground) and floods that originate in glacial lakes, commonly called GLOFs—glacier lake outburst floods.”

In Asia, the frequency of GLOFs is expected to triple by century’s end without substantial emission reductions. Jackson added, “Glaciers are continuing to shrink, affecting and changing water runoff. Snow cover and number of snow-covered days are also showing decreasing trends, affecting people who depend on meltwater runoff for irrigation.”

A change in water resources will affect agriculture and probably lead to higher food prices.

To avoid multilayered impacts, urgent climate responses and emissions cuts are necessary.

“Whilst some devastating losses and impacts are now locked in,” Kirkham said, “how bad the intensity and severity of cryosphere impacts will continue to grow in the future is still very much to be decided based on the policy decisions we will make in the coming five or so years.”

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By Zofeen Ebrahim
KARACHI, Pakistan, Nov 12 2024 – “It’s been horrible; I’ve been sick on and off for the last 10 days,” said 29-year-old asthmatic Natasha Sohail, who teaches A-Level students at three private schools in Lahore. Last week, her condition worsened with a vertigo attack and fever. “It’s criminal what is happening here,” said an incensed Sohail, referring to the “band-aid measures” taken by the Punjab government.

Lahore also has the distinction of being the world leader in the poor air quality index (AQI), with some neighborhoods touching over 1200 on the AQI this month. The AQI measures the level of fine particles (PM2.5), larger particles (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) in the air. An AQI of 151 to 200 is classified as “unhealthy”, 201 to 300 “very unhealthy” and more than 300 as “hazardous”.

For the past eight years, since Sohail was in college and since smog became an annual phenomenon, Sohail has relied on anti-wheezing drugs and inhalers. At home, there are four air purifiers to help her breathe cleaner air.

She’s not alone.

These two photos were taken at the same place; the clear blue sky was taken in September 2023 and the sepia skies in November 2024. Courtesy: Zaeema Naeem

“The hospitals are crowded with tens of thousands of patients suffering from respiratory and heart diseases being treated at hospitals and clinics over the last few weeks,” said Dr. Ashraf Nizami, president of the Pakistan Medical Association’s Lahore chapter. “The psychological toll the poor air is taking on people remains under the radar.”

Punjab’s senior minister, Marriyum Aurangzeb, revealing the government’s anti-smog action plan, informed journalists that Lahore endured 275 days of unhealthy Air Quality Index (AQI) levels over the past year, with temperatures rising by 2.3 degrees.

After Lahore’s AQI exceeded 1,000 last week, authorities closed all primary and secondary schools. Punjab’s Secretary for Environment, Raja Jahangir Anwar, warned the closure could continue if air quality doesn’t improve. “Young children are vulnerable, and we want to avoid an emergency,” he said, adding that online learning, like during the COVID pandemic, can be adopted again.

Source: Analysis by CREA. Data source for Lahore AQI is Airnow

Source: Analysis by CREA. Data source for Lahore AQI is Airnow

Source: Analysis by CREA. Data source for Lahore AQI is Airnow

Living in a world of air purifiers

Aliya Khan, 37, a mother of two boys—aged five and one, with the older one suffering from asthma—had installed four imported air purifiers in her home four years ago, each costing Rs 31,000 (USD 111). They bought a fifth this year at Rs 60,000 (USD 215). “It cost us a fortune, but that’s not all; the filters must be replaced every year, which costs Rs 10,000 (USD 36) per machine,” she said.

The private school her five-year-old attends lacks air purifiers in classrooms, leaving parents with no choice but to pool together and buy one for their child’s classroom.

Khan, a development consultant, says air purifiers work best if the home is packed tightly to keep the air from outside entering. “Our windows and doors are poorly insulated and with elderly parents, househelp and two kids—the air purifiers struggle to maintain their effectiveness.”

Smog Brings Business for Some

Business picks up for 37-year-old Hassan Zaidi as soon as Lahore is covered in smog. He’s currently fulfilling an order for “hundreds of air purifiers” for a foreign school in Lahore.

A computer engineer with a passion for product design, Zaidi started building air purifiers in 2019 for his family after his baby daughter developed a cough. He purchased an imported air purifier, took it apart, and quickly realized that with the right materials, it was no “rocket science” to build one himself.

He claimed his “work better, look better, and cost just Rs 25,000 (USD 90).” These air purifiers restart automatically after power outages, are nearly silent, and are easy to repair. The filter costs Rs 2,400 (USD 9) and needs replacing each season. Each unit is good for a 500 sq ft room if fully sealed.

Authorities Take Action

Stubble burning in India and Pakistan. The blue line is the border between the two countries. Pakistan (left) and India (on the right).

Anwar said the government has introduced several measures to reduce emissions and improve air quality, adopting a whole-of-government approach with all departments working together for the first time.

Authorities have already banned barbecuing food without filters and use of motorized rickshaws.

The government distributed 1,000 subsidized super-seeders to farmers as an alternative to burning rice stubble and took legal action against over 400 farmers who violated the burning ban. “This carrot and stick approach will be very effective,” endorsed Dr. Abid Qaiyum Suleri, the executive director of the Islamabad-based think tank, Sustainable Development Policy Institute.

Anwar said super seeders will convert residue into mulch, improving production and speeding sowing. Penalizing a few farmers will deter others from breaking the law.

“But the government’s own figures show agriculture contributes less than 4 percent to smog,” pointed out Hassan Khan, a farmer in Punjab, and added, “Why waste so much time and expense on it; why not focus on the bigger polluters like the transport industry?”

Another measure the government took involved demolishing over 600 of the 11,000 smoke-emitting brick kilns that hadn’t switched to zigzag technology, including 200 in and around Lahore.

Terming brick kilns the “low hanging fruit,” Dr. Parvez Hassan, senior advocate of the Supreme Court of Pakistan and president of the Pakistan Environmental Law Association, who, in 2003 and again in 2018, was appointed the chairperson of the Lahore Clean Air Commission and the Smog Commission by the Lahore High Court to come up with the smog policy, did not approve the “arbitrary decision of dismantling” of the kilns. In his view supporting the kiln owners with “available concessional financing for conversion to zizag technology” would be a more effective way.

He further added that it was well known that the transport (oil), cement and textile sectors were the bigger polluters, but they were very influential. “Power in Pakistan has always meant being above the law,” he said, and that the “general lack of political will and effective capability to monitor compliance” also acted as roadblocks. “No country in the world has succeeded in good environmental policies unless it has first built a capacity to implement! The journey must begin with capacity building!”

However, Anwar said, action has been taken with visits to 15,000 industrial units, sealing 64 mills and demolishing 152 factories.

With 43 percent of air pollution in the province caused by unfit vehicles, Anwar also held the transporters responsible for the smog. He shared that Lahore has 1.3 million cars and 4.5 million two-wheelers, with 1,800 motorcycles added daily. He also mentioned that the traffic police had been ordered to impound vehicles without fitness certificates. Last month, a fine of Rs 16.09 (USD 57,700 million) was imposed on over 24,000 substandard vehicles across the province.

“Getting a vehicle fitness certificate in Pakistan is as easy as a blind person getting a license to drive!” said a petroleum expert who requested anonymity. “We need to clean the fuel, scrap old vehicles, and make vehicle emissions testing mandatory,” he added.

Imran Khalid, a climate governance expert, emphasized that improving fuel quality alone wasn’t enough; vehicles and engines also need upgrades to fully benefit from better fuel. He noted that while Euro 5 fuel is available in Pakistan, it’s not widely accessible, and Euro 6 is the standard in India. “I haven’t seen any survey on how many cars in Pakistan have Euro 5 compliant engines,” he added.

“I think it would be far more effective to invest in mass transit, but there is no talk of this issue; we keep making more motorways, widening roads, and bringing in more vehicles on roads in the cities instead of investing in railways and commuter rails,” said farmer Khan.

The petroleum expert urged the government to approve the refinery upgrade policy, which has been delayed for two years, adding that upgrades will take up to five years.

Despite various actions, people in Lahore remain unconvinced, calling them too little, too late.

“The measures announced by the government should have been operationalized at least six months before the smog season and the 24/7 enforcement of these priorities should be rigorously monitored by a dedicated team with support of the public through awareness campaigns,” pointed out advocate Hassan.

Nizami called for year-round efforts against air pollution, questioning why no one is held accountable for cutting millions of trees for unplanned housing while the focus remains on controlling stubble burning.

The Pakistan Air Quality Experts (PAQx) group, a coalition of 27 professionals from public health, environmental science, law, and economics, has written to the prime minister, suggesting the establishment of a “comprehensive, nationwide real-time air quality monitoring network” for informed decision-making and responsive policymaking.

Anwar defended the smog plan, stating it’d been in progress since April and required public cooperation, including staying indoors and wearing masks. Punjab’s senior minister, Marriyum Aurangzeb, warned that failure to wear masks could lead to a complete city lockdown.

“I don’t see the plan working as the air quality is getting from bad to worse,” said Sohail.

Nizami criticized the government for making a lot of noise but taking little action. “It’s shameful how they’ve shifted health responsibilities to the private sector,” he said.

Sohail suggested cloud seeding for artificial rain, noting its positive impact last year. Nizami also supported using artificial rain to clear the haze.

Anwar explained that cloud seeding required the right clouds and humidity. “But we are quite ready and as soon as the timing is right, we will do it,” he promised.

Climate Diplomacy

While 70 percent of smog in Lahore is locally generated, nearly 30 percent comes from India. Manoj Kumar, a scientist with the Finnish Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, noted that the Indo-Gangetic Plain formed an “interconnected airshed,” affecting air quality, but local sources played a major role in Lahore’s pollution levels.

The chief minister is keen to start talks with her Indian counterpart. “Maryam Nawaz will soon send a letter to the Chief Minister of Indian Punjab, expressing her willingness to visit India and invite him to Pakistan,” said Anwar.

Kumar praised the Punjab chief minister’s initiative, emphasizing that long-term, coordinated efforts between both countries could lead to improved air quality through a unified approach. But the efforts should not stop at the Punjab regions alone, as the airshed is shared and goes beyond India.

Anwar said Pakistan is considering hosting a “regional climate conference in Lahore soon.”

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By Felix Dodds and Michael Strauss
Nov 12 2024 – So, the worst has happened. American voters have apparently just elected the most chaotic and kleptocratic individual in their country’s political history as their president. (We say ‘apparently’, because these days nothing can be certain about the integrity of the US political or electoral system – as is the case with far too many other countries.)

That means the incumbent president, Joe Biden – who implemented the greatest investment in wind and solar energy, in climate-friendly technology, and in reducing CO2 emissions in any nation in history – is out.

That means the previous president, Donald Trump – who opposed every one of those climate-friendly investments and has promised the greatest re-investment in oil, gas and coal of any nation in history – is back in .

There are many losers from the US election, and the mood in Baku these two weeks will often seem bleak, but it will offer a clear opportunity for starting to work out a strategy by which climate change can be addressed without US leadership

As the annual global Climate Conference (COP29) continues its first week in Baku, Azerbaijan, we can already see what the impact of the next Trump presidency will be.

At home, Trump plans to dismantle President Biden’s environmental regulations in favor of the oil and gas industry. As he often screamed at his rallies, his policy is ‘drill baby, drill !’ That indicates the petroleum reserves under US national parks and in the fragile Arctic will be opened for extraction – even though the US already is the largest producer and exporter of crude oil of any country.

Internationally, the previous Trump administration withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement – a process that for diplomatic reasons took four years to come into effect. If, as expected, a new Trump administration decides to again leave the Paris Agreement, it would be far more damaging. This time it will take only one year from the date the United States notifies the UNFCCC that it plans to leave. Next year’s pivotal COP30 would then be the last annual meeting the US attends as a party to the climate convention.

That withdrawal – combined with the probable end of all (?) climate assistance by the US to developing countries – will most likely (very possibly) herald the end of any chance for the world to achieve the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit for global temperature increase that was won in hard negotiations in in Paris in 2015.

It risks putting the world on a cataclysmic climate trajectory in this, the critical decade that was supposed to reduce the increase of the gases that impact on climate.

The infamous Project 2025 of the American far-right also calls for a future Republican administration to withdraw from the World Bank – which is the largest contributor to climate finance. That possibility is occurring right at the time that countries will be setting their new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), due on February 10th.

Developing country governments will therefore realize there will be less funding available to help implement their plans, so might reduce their ambition – at least for the next four years. Even if countries were able to obtain US funding, Project 2025 says this would be dependent on the recipients aligning with conservative religious values such as opposition to abortion.

The reductions may go further than the US government. Trump and US conservatives have attacked environmental, social and governance investing strategies (ESG) for years and attempted to intimidate companies.

Jefferies Financial Group has advised ESG Fund bosses to have ‘lawyers on speed dial’. So, an attempt to use the market to continue work on climate change may not be an easy option. Any CEO that goes against him will be aware that his or her company might feel the wrath of the White House – lost contracts being the obvious penalty.

There will be a wider erosion of multilateralism than on climate. The previous Trump administration withdrew the US from the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC). A new Trump Administration, led by anti-vaccine extremists, may move to limit engagement with the World Health Organization (WHO) as well.

What wealthy nations can – and must – do!

So how can other nations respond to this challenge?

The EU nations are faced with a tremendous challenge. Can they help fill the gap that will be left by the US while also defending their security and their democracies from active efforts to undermine them?

Can the EU and other developed nations implement a small but cumulatively significant climate tax dedicated to assisting adaptation and loss in the South?

Can the oil-producing North Sea nations tap far more of their own immense sovereign wealth funds to help others – particularly small island nations (Small Island States) – to avoid catastrophic climate damage?

Can the UK find increased motivation to rejoin the EU, at least on trade and environmental policy, given that Trump tariffs could cost the country $28 billion in lost exports1, dealing another serious impact to an already fragile British economy ? [1 Robert Olsen, Forbes magazine, Nov 9, 2024]

Can institutional investors, non-profit funders and corporations – even US corporations – increase their contributions to the Private Sector Facility of the Green Climate Fund, which provides funding directly to programs in local communities in developing countries?

Finally, can the Middle East petrochemical states fully share their vast wealth derived from oil to help the far-poorer nations facing climate risks caused by that oil? Can they support the universal phase out of oil, coal and gas – instead of simply building their own mega-solar plants to protect themselves as they continue to pump oil?

What developing nations can – and must – do!

Meanwhile, can the most rapidly-developing nations fill the political and financial gap and provide some of the lost social cohesion?

India has already pledged an important goal of 35 percent reduction in emissions intensity of its GDP by 2030 (which is not the same as absolute CO2 emissions reduction, but still a positive step), and net zero emissions by 2070. The official delegation of India to COP29 – together with government delegations of other rapidly-developing nations – could jointly announce their determination to increase their already announced Nationally Determined Contributions, and resist the loss of momentum from the US backing away from its carbon reduction goals .

Can India – the nation with world’s richest experience of both Western and Eastern cultural strengths, and the largest democracy – finally resolve its problems of racial and religious hatred, and present to other nations a new model of economic prosperity that lifts up and values the poorest as well as the richest?

Can China start to share technology and export growth to poorer countries in a model of genuine sharing that isn’t based on economic self-aggrandizement?

Can Brazil stabilize itself politically and nurture its immense ecological resources before they are cleared away and turned into cattle ranches?

Can South Africa walk past its internal political problems and various recent corruption scandals to become the sub-Saharan economic engine and political leader that everybody had hoped it would be?

Can Russia stop trying to repeat its own history of genocidal imperialism (see Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe) and fomenting insurrection, and instead act like a responsible nuclear power? After all it was Russia whose ratification of the Kyoto Protocol saw it come into effect.

A more isolated US will provide more opportunity for leadership by the most rapidly developing nations.

Perhaps it is now time for China, India and the most rapidly developing nations to significantly contribute financially to climate funds like the loss and damage mechanism that assists the very poorest and most vulnerable nations .

Perhaps countries like India and China, Brazil and Indonesia – whose cultures have thousands of years of agricultural experience in monsoon and rainforest ecosystems – could cooperate to provide expertise to farmers in other countries now facing tropical deluges.

The BRICS group now includes not only Brazil, China, India, Russia, South Africa and the UAE, but countries in a partnership relationship, like Indonesia and Turkey. It therefore includes six of the world’s predicted top 15 economies by 2030.

That is not an economically powerless group. It represents significant economic power. Will they use that power to help their brother and sister nations now even more at risk from climate chaos?

Or will they each merely attempt to mimic the worst aspects of Western vulture capitalism – taking as much possible, giving as little as necessary, while racing to exploit their own poor and working people, as well as the poor and working people in other countries ?

A coalition of the still willing

As always in policy and politics, perception can be as important as substance, and generating a public appearance of momentum can be a necessary ingredient for generating actual progress in negotiations. So, agreeing to address the problem is an essential step.

For the world to work, nations must be willing to work together. For the planet not to spiral into economic, social and climate collapse, individuals in each country must be willing to respect and care for other people – and other peoples .

There are many losers from the US election, and the mood in Baku these two weeks will often seem bleak, but it will offer a clear opportunity for starting to work out a strategy by which climate change can be addressed without US leadership.

The return of Trump will not only be the worst scenario for climate, of course. The impacts on civilians living in Ukraine and Gaza and Sudan, on women in the US and Afghanistan and Iran, on refugees and minority families throughout dozens of countries, and on democracy everywhere, will be potentially disastrous .

But the impact on climate might be the one that’s the most difficult – if not impossible – to reverse. ​Unless, that is, the remaining responsible governments – in a coalition of the still-willing – can creatively and cooperatively configure a strategy to minimize the damage, and constructively move forward for the common global good, together.

Felix Dodds is an Adjunct Professor in the Water Institute at the University of North Carolina. He has have participated in United Nations conferences and negotiations since the 1990s. Felix Dodds and Chris Spence co-edited Heroes of Environmental Diplomacy: Profiles in Courage (Routledge, 2022), which examines the roles of individuals in inspiring change.

Michael Strauss is Executive Director of Earth Media, an independent communications consultancy based in New York. His clients include NGOs, national governments, trade unions and UN agencies. He coordinated press conferences at the United Nations and at global environmental summits from 1992 to 2012 .

He is co-author of “Only One Earth – The Long Road, via Rio, to Sustainable Development” with Felix Dodds and Maurice Strong.