By David Nabarro
GENEVA, Dec 12 2024 – Frustrations over the pace of climate action and the size of the finance target agreed in Baku are valid from the perspective of low-income countries, especially Small-Island Developing States (SIDS). It is also important to recognize that there has been real progress in some countries at the agri-food-nutrition-climate-water-nature-livelihoods intersection, and this seems to be particularly the case in some countries in the Alliance of Champions for Food Systems Transformation (ACF).

David Nabarro

The finance negotiations at COP29: Climate negotiations become harder as the stakes get higher. The focus of COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan was on climate finance. The intention was to increase the target for finance to go to developing countries to help them protect their people and economies against climate disasters and invest into clean energy. This would come in the form of a new goal for global climate finance. Negotiating a finance goal was never going to be straightforward. It is challenging for nations to agree an amount that is fair for everyone and, at the same time, politically feasible for those that are asked to provide the cash. The last hours of COP29 in Baku were difficult and many participants felt dissatisfied when they left.

Solid floor on which to build: But the outcome – a new global goal of $1.3 trillion annually by 2035, from public, private and innovative sources, with developed nations committing $300 billion per year – is a real increase on the previous target of $100bn a year. It is a solid floor on which to build. Is the amount big enough? Will it be made available to those who need it soon enough? I cannot say at this stage. Securing a sustainable future for all requires continued goodwill, engagement and collaboration. This is only possible if all concerned ensure the transparent provision, effective delivery and efficient use of promised funds. This will pave the way for greater confidence among donors and further increases in available resources.

Growing momentum on the agri-food-nutrition-climate + intersection: I sensed a greater recognition that those who produce food are affected first, and worst, by climate change, and that the numbers of people at risk of food insecurity, hunger and malnutrition are on the rise with the most affected being women and children. Agri-food systems contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions while, at the same time, having the potential to sequester carbon dioxide. That makes them quite special within climate discussions though – for now – it appears hard to bring them into the negotiations.

What is the basis for this? The contacts I have had with national food systems convenors and climate focal points, during the last two years, suggest that several governments are seeking ways to transform food systems in ways that converge their agri-food systems with climate action. They do this in ways that reflect the aspirations in the COP28 UAE declaration on Sustainable agriculture, Resilient food systems and Climate action endorsed by 160 Heads of Government last year. Some countries have come together in an ambitious Alliance of Champions for Food Systems Transformation. There is backing available through different entities in the UN system, the UN Food Systems Coordination Hub, the Technical Cooperation Collaborative, the COP29 Baku Harmoniya Climate Initiative for Farmers, as well as different elements of a wide ecosystem of support which is constantly inspired by the Climate Champions, regional organizations and more. There is a lot of effort being invested in streamlining and connecting these efforts.

Younger people: In COP29 there was greater engagement of younger people who were systematically welcomed and actively engaged in many events. With their consistent focus on inclusion, governance, and accountability, their participation greatly adds to the ambition and potential impact of the different processes underway.

A will to work together: COP29 was a massive and complex event involving around 60,000 people from nearly 200 countries. I saw how the different groups that were there engaged in constructive ways and I appreciated the contributions of the organizers, volunteers, participants of all ages (especially younger people), governments, local authorities, farmers, advocates, businesses, civil society, media, and others. Despite their different perspectives they engaged in constructive dialogue, all are working for sustainable and just futures. The work on food and agriculture advances well and all those I met in Baku were doing their best to work together harmoniously. Many wanted greater ambition. Some are acutely frustrated because they fear for their future and sense underlying injustice. Not all agree on what to prioritize. But overall, though, I sense remarkable momentum which is paving the way for more substantive action even if the international geopolitical context is very difficult.

Looking ahead: Climate change is an exponential and existential challenge with increasingly severe consequences for many millions of people. The work ahead is immense and increasingly ambitious and innovative actions will be required. The journey ahead requires skilfully chosen investments that foster convergent ways of working: these will be needed more than ever in the years to come. Going further and faster requires everyone to focus on maintaining connections, fostering dialogue, nurturing respect, sharing energy and sustaining trust. The interactions in Baku showed me what might be possible, and I am impatient for more. Our 4SD Foundation will continue to contribute with its focus on sustaining cross-sector, interdisciplinary and multi-stakeholder convergence through structured dialogues.

David Nabarro, Strategic Director 4SD Foundation, Geneva

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By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 12 2024 – On December 9, a wave of bombardments hit a market district in Sudan, killing at least 127 people. Over eight barrel bombs were launched on the North Darfur town Kabkabiya, marking the latest attacks on densely populated areas that occurred throughout the course of the Sudanese Civil War. Both the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have received immense criticism from humanitarian organizations for committing abuses against civilians that constitute violations of international humanitarian law.

According to figures from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 61,000 people have died in the Khartoum state alone in the wake of hostilities in Sudan. The United Nations (UN) adds that conflict has displaced over 11 million people, making this the biggest displacement crisis in the world. Additionally, there has been considerable damage on critical civilian infrastructure over the course of the war.

On December 11, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) released a report which declared that the 20-month civil war in Sudan has generated “the biggest humanitarian crisis ever recorded”. Despite Sudan only containing approximately 1 percent of the global population, the nation contains over 10 percent of people in need of humanitarian assistance globally.

The SAF issued a statement on December 11 in which they denied responsibility for the recent attack, describing the accusations levied against it as “lies”. They further added that they believed they had the right to target any regions that are occupied by the RSF. The RSF has not responded as of yet.

On December 10, the RSF committed a heavy artillery shelling in a neighborhood in Omdurman, the largest city in the Khartoum state. According to the state government, this attack killed over 65 civilians and wounded hundreds of others. The RSF, described by the government as a “terrorist militia”, committed the “largest human massacre by shelling civilians in Karari locality.” The shelling also hit the Sabreen market and neighboring districts, as well a public transportation vehicle in the 17th district, killing all passengers on board.

The Director-General of Sudan’s Ministry of Health Fath al-Rahman Muhammad al-Amin informed reporters that casualties continue to be documented and that healthcare personnel are struggling to save lives in the midst of an influx of injured persons.

Mohamed Abdiladif, the interim country director for Save the Children in Sudan, described the two attacks as “unacceptable” as they took place in densely populated areas where families shopped for food with their children. Abdalif urged the warring parties to refrain from targeting markets, schools, healthcare facilities, and other integral public infrastructure not just as a moral obligation, he said, “but a vital step towards ensuring a stable, peaceful, and prosperous future for Sudan.”

“All wars are brutal, but the toll of this one is particularly horrifying. Indiscriminate attacks are killing civilians, including young children, some of the areas of most severe need remain cut off entirely, with no access to humanitarian aid,” warned Amy Pope, Director-General of the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

Amnesty International reports that gender-based violence, mass killings, and blockages of humanitarian aid are regular occurrences in Sudan. Furthermore, there has been a new wave of hostilities in west Darfur, with reports of ethnic cleansing of the Masalit community on the rise.

Additionally, hostilities have continued to escalate in the Zamzam displacement camp in North Darfur. Thousands of refugees have been faced with sporadic bombardments from the RSF since December 1, causing them to flee in hordes from their makeshift homes. The camp’s spokesperson, Mohammed Khamis Doda, confirmed that renewed artillery shelling in the camp resulted in at least 9 civilian casualties on December 9. Numerous witnesses described the RSF using long-range missiles, which destroyed several housing units in the camp.

As a result of extended warfare, living conditions for millions of Sudanese civilians have deteriorated significantly. In August of this year, the Famine Review Committee (FRC) determined the presence of famine within the Zamzam camp. On December 6, Doctors Without Borders, known by its French acronym MSF, reported a total of 737 cases of cholera, indicating the presence of a deepening outbreak.

The situation in Malakal remains critical, and we are concerned that the outbreak is spreading to neighbouring areas such as Tonga and Kodok,” said Zakaria Mwatia, MSF’s head of mission in the country.

The Sudanese government has urged humanitarian organizations to scale up responses as the scale of needs grows by the day. Additionally, Sudanese civilians have urgently requested an increase in protections.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) issued a report in which they indicated a host of violations of international humanitarian law occurring in Sudan. “The Rapid Support Forces’ abuse of civilians in South Kordofan is emblematic of continuing atrocities across Sudan. These new findings underscore the urgent need for the deployment of a mission to protect civilians in Sudan,” said Jean-Baptiste Gallopin, senior crisis and conflict researcher at Human Rights Watch.

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By Ilan Goldfajn and Rodrigo Valdés
WASHINGTON DC, Dec 12 2024 – Violent crime and insecurity have a disproportionate impact on Latin America and the Caribbean, with severe consequences for socioeconomic development.

Despite representing just 8% of the world’s population, the region accounts for nearly one-third of global homicides. This as well as other alarming statistics highlight the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to address the far-reaching effects of crime and violence.

New research by the IDB and IMF highlights how crime, insecurity and low growth reinforce each other in a vicious cycle that stifles investment, reduces tourism, and accelerates emigration.

Macroeconomic instability—recessions, inflation spikes, and rising inequality—is associated with increased violence. Easily available firearms and organized crime amplify these effects, undermining institutions and the rule of law.

Quantifying the Costs of Crime

A recent IDB paper quantifies the direct losses, estimating that crime and violence cost the region 3.4 percent of GDP annually. These costs stem from productivity losses due to lives lost, injuries, and imprisonment; private-sector expenditures on security; and public spending on police, justice, and prisons.

This is equivalent to 80 percent of the region’s public education budgets and double its social assistance spending. But the impact of crime doesn’t end there. It discourages investment, reduces tourism, and drives emigration, further weakening economic resilience and constraining the region’s future growth.

IMF research reveals that crime hampers innovation and reduces firm productivity, compounding economic stagnation over time. Leveraging geo-localized data on nightlights, the study finds that halving homicide rates in violent municipalities could increase their economic output by up to 30 percent.

At the regional level, as shown in last year’s IMF research, reducing homicide rates to the global average could boost Latin America and the Caribbean’s annual GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points.

Conversely, macroeconomic instability often fuels spikes in violence: a recession in LAC is associated with a 6 percent increase in homicides the following year, while inflation spikes above 10 percent are linked to a 10 percent rise in homicides the year after. Growing inequality further exacerbates the link between economic stagnation and crime.

How can policymakers help break the cycle?

Breaking this vicious circle requires a deeper understanding of its root causes and impacts. Rigorous research and better data are essential for designing public policies that effectively reduce crime. Institutions like the IDB and IMF can generate evidence, monitor crime dynamics, advise member countries, and facilitate discussions.

As the topic has become macro critical in the region, the institutions brought together experts and policymakers in a joint conference a few weeks back.

First, sound economic policy plays a preventive role. Stability, low inflation, robust social safety nets, and opportunities that reduce inequality and expand access to education and employment are critical to breaking the cycle of violence and stagnation.

Financial authorities are also uniquely positioned to weaken criminal networks by addressing illicit markets, curtailing financial flows, and tackling money laundering—cutting off resources that sustain organized crime.

Second, because the impact of crime extends far beyond direct economic costs, economic policymakers must adopt a broader role by targeting high-risk groups, improving crime monitoring, and enhancing interagency coordination.

Effective interventions can deliver transformative results. With IMF support, Jamaica implemented reforms that protected public investment and social spending while successfully halving debt between 2012 and 2022. Community-based interventions supported by the IDB reduced gang violence in 68% of affected neighborhoods.

In Rosario province, Argentina implemented a comprehensive strategy to combat crime, including territorial control of high-risk neighborhoods by the Federal Police, stricter prison systems for high-profile offenders, and collective prosecution of criminal groups under new legislation like the anti-mafia law.

These efforts, alongside progress on a juvenile penal code to deter drug traffickers from recruiting minors, have led to 65% reduction homicides in 11 months. In Honduras, strategic security reforms contributed to a 14% decline in the homicide rate and an 8% increase in public confidence in law enforcement.

Policymakers must prioritize using resources effectively, given the scope of the challenge. Public spending on security in the region is already high—around 1.9 percent of GDP, or 7.4 percent of total public expenditure—and may be even greater where the military and subnational governments are involved.

Finance ministers and fiscal authorities need a full understanding of these costs, covering police, courts, prisons, and related institutions, to ensure funds are allocated efficiently to areas with the highest impact. They also need to monitor them in the same way they surveil other large spending tickets, evaluating their impact and pressing for results.

Transnational Crime Demands Regional Cooperation

Tackling crime solely at the national level isn’t sufficient. Criminal groups operate across borders, making isolated responses ineffective and fragmented. To address this shared challenge, countries must collaborate more closely to develop stronger, more coordinated solutions.

Recognizing the transnational nature of crime, the IDB’s Alliance for Security, Justice, and Development seeks to unite governments, civil society, and private-sector actors. This alliance not only aims to strengthen institutions and enhance cooperation but also supports public policies and mobilizes resources to implement evidence-based solutions that effectively combat organized crime and violence.

Regional collaboration is crucial for disrupting the sophisticated, interconnected networks of organized crime that undermine the rule of law and economic stability. By fostering unified efforts, institutions like the IMF and IDB alongside governments and civil society, have a critical role to play in this effort.

With people’s lives on the line, the true impact of these efforts must be felt on the ground—by creating safer streets, restoring hope in communities, and offering individuals a real chance to thrive economically in a future free from violence.

Ilan Goldfajn was elected president of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) on November 20, 2022, and took office on December 19, 2022. He previously served as director of the Western Hemisphere Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2022, where he supported countries in implementing IMF programs and contributed to climate change policy dialogue. Earlier, he was an economist at the IMF from 1996 to 1999.

Source: IMF Blog

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By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 12 2024 – When some of the leaders in the Middle East and Asia are dethroned and driven into exile, the cynics jokingly ask: Is he politically dead or is he dead and buried?

The distinction between the two seems significant because the fluctuating political fortunes of some leaders– and their will to survive against heavy odds– have always defied Western logic.

In a bygone era, two of the authoritarian Middle Eastern leaders —Saddam Hussein of Iraq and Muammar el-Gaddafi—were hunted down before being executed.

Saddam was sentenced to death by hanging after being convicted of crimes against humanity by an Iraqi Special Tribunal while Gaddafi was severely beaten up by rebel forces before being shot to death.

Still, some Arab rulers who were deposed but survived included Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia in 2011, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt in 2011, and Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen in 2012.

But there was one rare exception—in Asia.

Sri Lanka’s President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was driven into exile—first, seeking refuge in the Maldives, then in Singapore and finally in Thailand. When he ran out of safe havens, or so the story goes, he returned to his home country –but not to his lost presidency.

In Asia, there were several other political leaders who were ousted from power and went into exile, including Nawaz Sharif, Pervez Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto of Pakistan, Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan, Yingluck Shinawatra of Thailand and most recently Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh.

When the Taliban captured power back in 1996, one of its first political acts was to hang the Afghan President Mohammed Najibullah in Ariana Square in Kabul.

And, when it assumed power a second time, it ousted the US-backed government of Ashraf Ghani, a former World Bank official, armed with a doctorate in anthropology from one of the most prestigious Ivy League educational institutions in the US: Columbia University.

In a Facebook posting, Ghani said he fled to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) seeking safe haven because he “was going to be hanged” by the Taliban.

If that did happen, the Taliban would have earned the dubious distinction of being the only government in the world to hang two presidents. But mercifully, it did not.

Last week, as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad lost his battle for survival against a 14-year-old civil war in his country, he went into exile in Russia, one of his strongest political and military allies.

At a press conference December 10, UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk said: “We saw (in Syria) a regime driven from power following decades of brutal repression, and after nearly 14 years of relentless conflict.”

Hundreds of thousands of lives were lost during this time, more than 100,000 people disappeared, and some 14 million were driven from their homes, often in the most atrocious circumstances, he said.

“I’ve met many of them over the years, witnessed their despair and trauma as they bore testimony to the most serious human rights violations committed against them, including torture and the use of chemical weapons,” declared Turk.

But Assad, now under Russian protection, is not expected to pay for any of his crimes against humanity.

Recounting his personal experience, Dr James E. Jennings, President of Conscience International and Executive Director of US Academics for Peace, told IPS: “I met Bashar al-Assad only once, at his grand palace in Damascus before the war, as head of a delegation of US Academics for Peace. We thought that young Bashar, Western educated and impeccably mannered, might lead Syria away from his father’s cruel repression.”

Assad, like Israel’s Netanyahu, already under indictment by the ICC, is responsible for the conduct of the war and could reasonably be tried for crimes against humanity. That would certainly serve the interests of justice, and might help restrain some of the last half-century of unending bloodshed across the Middle East, he pointed out.

But the reality is that international institutions, largely invented after WW II, have very little capability to implement judgments even if an individual is found guilty. Under the prevailing system of national governments, there is a certain amount of impunity for the head of a government acting for “reasons of state,” said Dr Jennings.

The rebels have no such protection until they become a government. The coalition from Idlib now in control in Damascus is headed by Islamists. At this point, by no stretch of imagination can the Ba’ath Party and Assad himself regain power. Russia, where Assad has fled for refuge, is unlikely to surrender him in any case, he said.

Stephen Zunes, Professor of Politics and Director of Middle Eastern Studies, University of San Francisco, told IPS it would certainly appear that Assad and other top Syrian officials would be liable for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Part of the delay, he said, has been the difficulty in accessing the necessary evidence, but that should be a lot easier now.

“There were hardly any real battles in those final days. Without Hezbollah ground support or Russian air support, Assad had to rely on unwilling conscripts who were not ready to fight and die to keep him in power”.

This was not a military defeat. It was a political collapse. A government is only as strong as its people’s willingness to recognize its legitimacy, said Zunes.

Asked whether Assad should be held accountable for his crimes, UN Spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said: “I think the violations of human rights in Syria have been well documented by various independent commissions. Anyone involved in the commissioning of these violations needs to be held to account, without a doubt.”

In a statement released December 10, Human Rights Watch said: Assad’s government committed countless atrocities, crimes against humanity, and other abuses during his 24-year presidency.

These include widespread and systematic arbitrary arrests, torture, enforced disappearances and deaths in detention, use of chemical weapons, starvation as a weapon of war, and indiscriminate and deliberate attacks against civilians and civilian objects. 

Non-state armed groups operating in Syria, including Hay’et Tahrir al Sham (HTS) and factions of the Syrian National Army that launched the offensive on November 27, are also responsible for human rights abuses and war crimes.

Lama Fakih, Middle East director at Human Rights Watch said: “The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government offers Syrians an unprecedented opportunity to chart a new future built on justice, accountability, and respect for human rights.”

For Syrians scattered across the globe, the dream of accountability for years of crimes and brutality is closer to becoming a reality. Whoever emerges as Syria’s new leadership should make a full and determined break from the repression and impunity of the past and establish a system that respects the human rights and dignity of all Syrians regardless of background or political views, Fakih said

“They should swiftly move to preserve and protect evidence of crimes and abuses by the former government and ensure fair, impartial justice going forward. Armed opposition groups should send a strong and unequivocal message to factions and fighters that unlawful attacks, including those targeting individuals based on perceived ties to the former government, will not be tolerated.

They should commit to ensuring the humane treatment of all individuals, including former government officials and soldiers, affiliated fighters, and loyalists.”

Elaborating further, Dr Jennings said the accusations against Assad are well-deserved, but the rebels are also to blame. Where were all the cries of outrage when the war in Syria was taking its long and incredibly bloody toll month after month, year after year, for almost 14 years?

Where and when will the proxy governments that supplied arms, money, and fighters for this hellish war be held to account? Should not the sponsors of the war be charged with war crimes too? he asked.

“Who funded the war? Russia, Turkey, and Iran. Who has been bombing sites in Syria with impunity for years? The US and Israel. Who is burdened with endless, hopeless tides of refugees? Lebanon, Turkey, Greece, Jordan, and the European Union. Why have they not done more to assist the IDPs and refugees, of which there were a combined 13.2 million?”

One answer is that since it was a proxy war to begin with, with many countries and interests playing out on the battlefield, none of the participants really wanted it to end—or at least were content to let it continue, he argued.

“That Bashar ordered–or allowed—the campaign of repression against the protestors in 2011—a part of the “Arab Spring” protests at the beginning of the war, was in itself unforgivable. Killing and torturing young people for writing graffiti, imprisoning people by the thousands and throwing away the key is so inhumane that it cannot be whitewashed, and scarcely imagined”.

To borrow a phrase from earlier Middle Eastern diplomacy, Assad “Never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity.” Repeatedly in the past 25 years he was urged to change course, to envision a different outcome than simply clinging to power for its own sake. He could not do it—or he chose not to—which amounts to the same thing, declared Dr Jennings.

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