By CIVICUS
Dec 23 2024 –  
CIVICUS discusses the ongoing crackdown on civil society in Belarus with Natallia Satsunkevich, human rights defender and interim board member of the Viasna Human Rights Centre.

Belarusian authorities have stepped up arrests in a bid to stifle any remaining opposition to President Alexander Lukashenko, who is seeking a seventh term in the January 2025 presidential election. Over 1,200 people have been detained since the end of September, many for participating in online chats that have been used to organise protests since the 2020 election. The authorities describe these as part of an extremist network. Some of those arrested have been charged with conspiracy to seize power, carrying a potential prison sentence of up to 15 years. Around 1,300 political prisoners are currently being held in overcrowded prisons, while opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya remains in exile.

Natallia Satsunkevich

How has the political atmosphere changed in the run-up to the presidential election?

As the presidential election approaches, the authorities have intensified their crackdown on civil society and political opposition. This isn’t new – repression has been escalating since the protests following the 2020 stolen election – but in recent months it has taken an even darker turn.

One of the regime’s main tools is the criminalisation of independent organisations and media. Viasna, for example, has been declared an ‘extremist formation’. This means anyone who interacts with us – whether by sharing information, giving an interview or offering support – risks being arrested and prosecuted. This level of repression has created a climate of fear where people are too afraid to speak out about human rights abuses or take part in activism.

There has also been an increase in arrests, house searches and interrogations. Many of those arrested during the 2020 protests are still in prison and new arrests are taking place almost every day. The political opposition inside the country has been effectively silenced, with most of its leaders imprisoned or driven into exile. It’s clear that Lukashenko’s authoritarian regime is determined to hold onto power at all costs.

Is there any question of the outcome being at stake?

Unfortunately, no. Elections in Belarus are so heavily manipulated that they’re little more than formalities to legitimise Lukashenko’s rule. We’ve been monitoring and campaigning for free and fair elections for years, along with groups like the Belarusian Helsinki Committee, but at the moment those conditions simply don’t exist.

The opposition has been completely sidelined. Many of its leaders are either in prison or have fled the country. Alternative candidates aren’t allowed to run, and any form of opposition campaigning is banned. The state-controlled media is completely one-sided, constantly pushing the narrative that Lukashenko has overwhelming public support, while silencing anyone who disagrees.

With no transparency or accountability, the outcome is already decided. This election is just another tool to keep Lukashenko in power for as long as possible.

What are the likely post-election scenarios?

After the election, things are likely to stay much the same. The regime is likely to continue its authoritarian rule and we have little hope for immediate change.

For Belarus to move towards democracy, the first step would be to release all political prisoners. Almost 1,300 people, including opposition leaders, activists and journalists, are currently behind bars on politically motivated charges. They should be allowed to participate in the political process.

The government must also end its campaign of repression. Widespread arrests, searches, interrogations and torture have created an atmosphere of fear that stifles any form of dissent. Reform of the police and judicial systems is essential to address this.

Belarus also needs genuinely free and fair elections. This means opposition candidates should be able to campaign openly and people must be able to vote without fear of retribution.

Finally, accountability for human rights abuses is crucial. Those responsible for torture, unlawful detention and silencing dissent must be held accountable. This is vital for restoring trust and building a democratic future.

How can the international community support democratic transition?

The international community has been a lifeline for the Belarusian people, and this support must continue. Financial aid and solidarity from democratic states, particularly the European Union and the USA, have enabled many activists, including myself and others who’ve had to leave Belarus for our own safety, to continue our work.

Public condemnation of the regime’s actions also helps. Even if it doesn’t lead to immediate change, it shows Belarusian people and the government that the world is watching and reminds the authorities that actions have consequences.

It is also important to seek accountability through international legal mechanisms. Since we can’t hold perpetrators to account inside Belarus, it is essential to seek justice outside the country. States such as Lithuania and Poland have already begun investigating crimes committed by the regime and have referred cases to the International Criminal Court. These efforts show that there is a global determination to hold those in power to account.

The crisis in Belarus must be recognised as an international issue and kept on the international agenda. The United Nations has described the regime’s actions as crimes against humanity, making it clear this is not just a domestic matter: it’s an international crisis that demands international attention and action.

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SEE ALSO
Belarus: ‘Despite the repression, we haven’t halted our work for a single day’ Interview with Marina Kostylianchenko 16.Dec.2023
Belarus: ‘There is a pro-democracy civil society that opposes the war and advocates for democratic reforms’ Interview with Anastasiya Vasilchuk 22.Mar.2023
Belarus: a prison state in Europe CIVICUS Lens 15.Mar.2023

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By Farhana Haque Rahman
TORONTO, Canada, Dec 23 2024 – Do you sometimes feel like a hamster on its wheel, or perhaps stuck on a runaway train hurtling towards the abyss? Whatever metaphor one might choose for our world looking back on 2024, rainbows don’t easily spring to mind.

Farhana Haque Rahman

Wars and conflicts already in full spate a year ago got even worse, with horrific violence inflicted on civilians, especially women and children, and millions displaced. Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine, Myanmar, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Sahel, Haiti. A long list getting longer.

The COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, were ostensibly about trying to find agreements on how to tackle the global climate crisis. Two weeks of negotiations, covered in detail by IPS, came close to collapse, ending just short of total failure.

As 2024 raced towards a place in the record books as the planet’s hottest year on record, a meaningful Baku accord on climate finance for poorer nations was once again stymied by powerful nations and their geopolitical rivalries, squabbling about accountability against a backdrop of already rising debts.

In the words of Mohamed Adow, director of climate and energy think tank Power Shift Africa, the rich world staged “a great escape in Baku with no real money on the table and vague and unaccountable promises of funds to be mobilised.” (One might also add that major emitting countries like China and India, which project power and wealth but refuse to be defined as ‘rich’, also got off lightly in Baku).

Disputes over finance for a new fund also sank the COP16 biodiversity summit held in Cali, Colombia, where exhausted delegates failed to reach consensus.

In a blow for those seeking to prevent mass species extinction, countries also failed to agree on a new framework for monitoring progress on tackling biodiversity loss.

A landmark new report by the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) warns that deep, fundamental shifts in how people view and interact with the natural world are urgently needed to halt and reverse biodiversity loss and safeguard life on Earth.

The IPBES Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change and Options for Achieving the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity – also known as the Transformative Change Report – builds on the 2019 IPBES Global Assessment Report, which found that the only way to achieve global development goals is through transformative change, and on the 2022 IPBES Values Assessment Report.

Critical in terms of their contributions to humanity, but confined to the sidelines in these big power orchestrations, organizations like OCHA, the IOM and WHO act both as harbingers of doom while attempting to carry out essential repair and maintenance work amidst the wreckage.

Greg Puley, head of the Climate Team at the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) issued a clarion call for an ambitious and fair global climate finance goal at COP29. “This year alone we witnessed devastating floods in the Sahel, extreme heatwaves in Asia and Latin America, and drought in Southern Africa,” he told IPS.

Also going unheeded was an appeal to Israel in November to halt its assault on North Gaza. Fifteen UN and other humanitarian organizations described the crisis there as “apocalyptic”. In that context the World Health Organization said its second round of polio vaccinations in the Gaza Strip had been partially successful.

Analysis by the UN Human Rights Office showed that nearly 70 percent of those killed in the war in Gaza were women and children.

“Gaza is becoming a graveyard for children,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said on November 6. “More journalists have reportedly been killed over a four-week period than in any conflict in at least three decades. More United Nations aid workers have been killed than in any comparable period in the history of our organization,” he added.

Over 10 million people have been displaced by conflict inside Sudan while an additional 2.2 million have fled the country. Warring parties regularly attack civilians, inflicting terrible violence against women. Madiha Abdalla, an activist journalist forced to flee Sudan, wrote for IPS describing how women human rights defenders have been targeted.

Despite the scale of the suffering in Sudan, international attention is waning and aid has been blocked. Russia vetoed a UN Security Council ceasefire resolution.

As the world observed the International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women on November 25, UN Women data showed almost one in three women around the world have been subjected to physical and/or sexual violence at least once in their life.

Individual activists like Abdalla are particularly vulnerable with little or no backup during conflicts. But 2024 has also seen entire organizations up sticks and leave. Haiti is an example. More than 700,000 people have been displaced there as gang violence has escalated, particularly since deployment of the underfunded Multinational Security Support mission.

Doctors Without Borders, active in Haiti for over 30 years, said it was suspending critical care in the capital Port-au-Prince following repeated threats from local law enforcement towards staff and patients. The UN also ordered the evacuation of its staff from the capital in what it somewhat euphemistically called a temporary reduction of its “footprint” in Port-au-Prince. UNICEF said an unprecedented number of children had been recruited by gangs.

Refugees from Haiti even became a weapon in Donald Trump’s US election campaign when he accused Haitian immigrants of eating the cats and dogs of residents in Springfield, Ohio. Trump’s false claim – widely debunked – apparently did nothing to derail his ultimately successful campaign in which the former president repeatedly proclaimed his intention to carry out mass deportations of undocumented migrants if elected president.

Paradoxically, his deportation plans might be spurred on further by the International Organization’s World Migration Report 2024 detailing unprecedented numbers of international migrants worldwide – estimated at 281 million. In turn this has led to a spike in remittances to their home countries worth hundreds of billions of dollars, making up a “significant” chunk of the GDP of developing countries.

Trump’s disdain for international organisations and binding commitments involved in membership makes it likely that he will repeat the drastic steps taken in his 2016-21 term in office, such as the US withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement and freezing of contributions to the WHO.

As 2024 draws to a close with the ominous spread of renewed war in Syria, a more isolationist US under Trump reminds us of the value of those lesser known organisations slipping under the radar, such as the Sasakawa Foundation campaigning to end leprosy and its stigma; IITA/CGIAR and their commitment to small farms and transforming food systems in Africa; the scientists developing a new vaccine to boost immunity to malaria.

A long and positive list this time. Even on the climate front, progress should also be recognized and nurtured, even if coming too late and too slowly, such as the expectation that the world might see a peak in annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2024, thanks in part to giant leaps in solar and wind capacity.

People do have the powers to make a difference too, whether to elect a Trump or oust a corrupt would-be autocrat, as 2024 demonstrated.

Dr Muhammad Yunus, 84-year-old Chief Advisor of Bangladesh’s interim government and Nobel peace prize laureate, spoke in his first address to the United Nations of the “power of the ordinary people”, especially the young, to forge a “new Bangladesh” after mass protests against government corruption and violence ousted then prime minister Sheikh Hasina in August.

We might be on that train heading to the abyss but we do possess the knowledge and tools to apply the brakes. If only we could learn the lessons.

Farhana Haque Rahman is Senior Vice President of IPS Inter Press Service and Executive Director IPS Noram; she served as the elected Director General of IPS from 2015-2019. A journalist and communications expert, she is a former senior official of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the International Fund for Agricultural Development.

IPS UN Bureau

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By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 23 2024 – As talks of a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine intensify, bombardments in Gaza continue, raising the number of civilian casualties and internal displacements. A December 19 report from Human Rights Watch (HRW) condemned Israeli authorities for committing acts of genocide upon the people in the Gaza Strip, including the deprivation of water and the destruction of critical water sanitation infrastructures.

According to estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO), a person needs between 50 to 100 liters of water on a daily basis in order to ensure that “basic needs are met.” In emergency situations, it is estimated that people can survive off of 15 liters per day. Officials from HRW estimate that Gazans only have access to approximately 2 to 9 liters of water per day, which is inadequate for drinking, cooking, and washing.

“Water is essential for human life, yet for over a year the Israeli government has deliberately denied Palestinians in Gaza the bare minimum they need to survive. This isn’t just negligence; it is a calculated policy of deprivation that has led to the deaths of thousands from dehydration and disease that is nothing short of the crime against humanity of extermination, and an act of genocide,” said HRW Executive-Director Tirana Hasan.

On January 26 this year, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued provisional measures mandating that Israel prevent genocide in Gaza by enabling the delivery of humanitarian assistance and basic services. However, numerous violations were recorded throughout the year.

An Oxfam International analysis estimates that approximately 47,634 cubic meters of water are produced in Gaza every day. However, roughly 80 percent of this water supply is lost in leakages due to the damage of water filtration systems caused by Israeli airstrikes. Only about 10,714 cubic meters reach the Gazan population on a daily basis. This is entirely avoidable as the minimum water quantity required by the population is approximately 33,900 cubic meters.

Satellite photos and videos obtained by HRW showed extensive damage to water sanitation infrastructures from Israeli bombardments. It has also been reported that Israeli authorities have cut off electricity in the enclave, which essentially renders critical infrastructures such as water pumps, desalination plants, and generators ineffective.

Additionally, HRW has documented instances of Israeli bombardments that have killed water utility workers, destroyed water equipment warehouses, and impeded the delivery of water-related aid from the United Nations (UN) and other humanitarian organizations. HRW also states that Israeli authorities had also “deliberately” restricted the delivery of fuel in Gaza, which has essentially choked civilians off from rescue efforts, healthcare services, hygienic resources, and bakery operations.

According to a statement from the Union of Gaza Strip Municipalities, the depletion of water services has resulted in “solid waste accumulation, and wastewater leakage onto streets and residential areas.” A spokesperson from WHO informed HRW that “damaged water and sanitation systems, and dwindling cleaning supplies have made it almost impossible to maintain basic infection prevention and control measures (in healthcare facilities).”

This has led to the rampant development of disease among millions of displaced Gazans. WHO reports that there have been 132,000 cases of jaundice, a symptom of hepatitis A. 225,000 cases of skin infections have also been recorded, which have largely been attributed to the spread of over 1 million cases of acute respiratory diseases.

According to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), documented cases of diarrhea among children under age five has risen from 48,000 to 71,0000. This marks a 2000 percent increase since October 7, 2023. Doctors in Gaza have told HRW personnel that dehydration and malnutrition are so severe that it is almost impossible to treat patients that are struggling with disease, as their immune systems have been severely weakened.

In early December, talks of a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine were reported in the media, with authorities from both parties expressing satisfaction at the possibility of an imminent agreement. Humanitarian organizations including the UN have also expressed optimism.

Georgios Petropoulos, the Head of OCHA’s (Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) sub-office in Gaza, informed reporters on December 20 that there would likely be a loosening of restrictions imposed by Israeli authorities, resulting in increased security for the people of Gaza and more effective deliveries of humanitarian aid. Petropoulos also predicted that people would begin returning home, rubble would begin to be cleared, and basic services would begin running again.

Despite this, Israel continues to coordinate hostilities within the enclave, threatening the lives of thousands on a daily basis. The Palestinian Health Ministry confirmed that a series of airstrikes took place on December 19 in Jabalia, Tuffah, Gaza City, and Beit Lahiya, killing a total of 41 civilians.

A recent report from the humanitarian and medical aid organization, Doctors Without Borders (MSF), states that the repeated airstrikes, enforced mass displacements, and sustained blockages of humanitarian aid constitute “ethnic cleansing”.

“People in Gaza are struggling to survive apocalyptic conditions, but nowhere is safe, no one is spared, and there is no exit from this shattered enclave,” said MSF Secretary-General Christopher Lockwood. “The recent military offensive in the north is a stark illustration of the brutal war the Israeli forces are waging on Gaza, and we are seeing clear signs of ethnic cleansing as Palestinians are forcibly displaced, trapped, and bombed.”

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By Catherine Wilson
BUCHAREST, Romania , Dec 23 2024 – The days are short with bitterly cold rain in Bucharest, the capital of Romania, the largest Balkan country located south of the Ukraine. Over the border, temperatures in Kyiv will plummet to a daily average of zero in December as the Ukraine war grinds on.

Wars are bringing suffering and heightened insecurity to millions around the world, and food is not only a casualty of bombing and devastation but also being used as a weapon against civilians by warring parties.

Conflict is now the greatest driver of major food crises in the world, says the World Food Programme, and the situation is acute in the Ukraine, which continues to defend itself against Russian invasion, and Gaza, still under siege by Israel. And the threat of severe hunger for civilians caught in hostilities will only rise as winter sets in during the coming months.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, an escalation of tensions since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, triggered massive human displacement, with many fleeing into neighbouring countries. By 2023, Romania, with a population of 19 million, had witnessed more than 3 million Ukrainians arrive at its border, the vast majority being women and children.

“The bombs fell down near my house. I woke up; my 13-year-old daughter woke up. I got up my son and said, ‘You have five minutes; grab your things, and we are going to the metro station.’ We found a car to pick us up with the children and to the house of my sister, her newborn baby, and two more children of her husband. It was crazy. Everywhere there were queues. You couldn’t get money from the ATM, you couldn’t get fuel—nothing.” Iryna Sobol, a 45-year-old Ukrainian who fled her Kyiv home in 2022 and now resides in Bucharest, recounted to IPS. And, as the conflict spread, food prices rose.

As with other basic needs, food systems face collapse when military attacks destroy agricultural land and crops, forcing farmers to flee and damaging the critical infrastructure for transporting, storing, and selling food. Since 2022, the agricultural industry in the Ukraine has been hit with losses of USD 80 billion. And as people under siege face increasingly scarce food supplies, prices rise for what is available, making basic sustenance an even greater struggle for those who have lost their income.

Since mid-year, Russian forces have made aggressive advances into the east and Donetsk region of Ukraine, where more than 137,000 people have been forced to flee since August.

Ukraine refugees receive food provisions from the Romania Red Cross in Bucharest. Credit: Filip Scarlat/Romanian Red Cross

“The humanitarian situation is further exacerbated now that winter has set in. Russia’s targeted destruction of critical energy infrastructure has led to massive losses in Ukraine’s energy generation capacity, and the attacks continue, disrupting electricity, heating, and water supply and already affecting millions of households,” Elisabeth Haslund, spokesperson for the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) in the Ukraine, told IPS. Food is also a critical need, with 7.3 million Ukrainians, or 20 percent of the population, facing food insecurity this year, reports the United Nations.

In Bucharest, Andrei Scarlat, Manager of the Romanian Red Cross Humanity Concept Store, said he had witnessed a recent increase of newly arrived Ukrainian refugees registering for humanitarian supplies, such as flour, sugar, rice, canned foods, and hygiene products.

The Romanian Red Cross, which has assisted more than 1.3 million displaced Ukrainians with food, water, shelter, and health, is one of many humanitarian organizations that are partnered with the Romanian government in its acclaimed state response to the Ukraine refugee crisis. Within days of its neighbour coming under attack, the Balkan state coordinated an emergency operation at border crossings with the provision of shelter, food, and medical care to those fleeing. And it offers temporary protection to refugees with access to services such as health, education, housing, and employment.

An Action Against Hunger aid worker measures a baby girl’s arm using a MUAC band to assess nutritional health in Gaza, August 2024. Credit: Action Against Hunger

But, more than 2,000 kilometres to the southeast, conflict in the besieged Palestinian enclave of Gaza has already brought it to the brink of famine. In the tiny 365-square-kilometer territory, sandwiched between the Mediterranean Sea to the east and Israel to the west, 2.23 million Palestinians have endured years of suffering under an Israeli blockade. Now the military onslaught by the Israeli Defence Force in retaliation for a Hamas-led attack inside Israeli territory on 7 October last year, which left 1,200 Israelis dead, has killed more than 44,000 Palestinians.

And the destruction of basic infrastructure for habitation, including water, sanitation, health and medical facilities, and food systems, with the elimination of 70 percent of Gaza’s crops, has created unbearable living conditions for the more than 90 percent of Gazans who are displaced. In October, the World Food Programme warned that famine was imminent.

“The Gaza Strip is currently in a human-made famine. We are long past the point of ‘imminent famine.’ The first child was killed by Israeli-imposed famine many months ago and many more since,” Yasmeen El-Hasan of the Palestinian Union of Agricultural Work Committees in Ramallah, Palestine, told IPS. “The use of food and essential resources as weapons of war is a hallmark of Israeli systematic violence against Palestinians… aimed at starving Palestinians into elimination.”

In Northern Gaza, the focus of Israeli air and ground assaults over the past two months, more than 65,000 people are barely surviving in overcrowded tent shelters with no water and sanitation. The dire lack of food is causing severe malnutrition, especially in mothers and children.

And since October, Israeli border authorities have blocked and delayed food and humanitarian deliveries into the territory through the Kerem Shalom crossing. Consequently, in October only 5,000 metric tons of food succeeded in reaching Gaza, or one fifth of what was required, claims the World Food Programme.

“There has been no significant easing of restrictions on the entry of food and humanitarian aid into Gaza… and we were only able to deliver aid to half as many distribution points in North Gaza over the past month,” the spokesperson for Action Against Hunger, a humanitarian organization addressing hunger and malnutrition around the world, told IPS.

El-Hasan added that “the minimal food that is available is not accessible. The food consumer price index has increased 312 percent; aid that does enter is concentrated in small areas, and the Israeli occupation forces often attack Palestinians as they seek aid.”

A child in northern Gaza drinks water provided by Action Against Hunger to support displaced communities, October 2024. Credit: Action Against Hunger

A scene of destruction in northern Gaza shows demolished buildings and scattered debris, with a lone tree standing amidst the ruins, October 2024. Credit: Action Against Hunger

As the winter months unfold, the people of Gaza will face catastrophic conditions, with 90 percent of Gazans likely to experience severe hunger. “Cold and rainy weather is already affecting those in makeshift shelters, which are often constructed from tarpaulins, blankets, and cardboard, offering little protection. Children and the elderly are particularly at risk,” said Action Against Hunger.

On 12 December, the UN General Assembly voted for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. But the survival of Gazans during the coming months will depend on the untrammelled passage of humanitarian aid. “There must be an immediate reopening of all border crossings, a substantial increase in the influx of aid into Gaza, and a guarantee of safe, unobstructed access for humanitarian organizations to deliver aid to all areas,” the spokesperson for Action Against Hunger continued. El-Hasan added that “the international community must also abide by their legal obligations and hold Israel accountable for its violations of international law, including the use of starvation as a weapon of war.”

In the Ukraine, the UNHCR and its humanitarian partners are responding to those who continue to flee fighting and need support as weather conditions deteriorate. But, as in Gaza, only an end to the conflict will provide the conditions for reconstructing Ukraine’s agricultural industry and food production, a goal that will take years and an investment of at least USD 56 billion.

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By Timothy A. Wise
CAMBRIDGE, MA., Dec 23 2024 – A tribunal of trade arbitrators has ruled in favor of the United States in its complaint that Mexico’s restrictions on genetically modified corn violate the terms of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA). The long-awaited ruling in the 16-month trade dispute is unlikely to settle the questions raised by Mexico about the safety of consuming GM corn and its associated herbicide.

Indeed, the pro-U.S. ruling raises questions about the fairness of the USMCA itself, which has now legitimized the use of the agreement’s dispute process to challenge a domestic policy that barely affected trade. U.S. president-elect Donald Trump is now openly threatening Mexico with 25% tariffs on all Mexican exports, a blatant violation of the USMCA that Trump himself renegotiated and signed in 2018. Yet the treaty appears impotent to challenge such unilateral U.S. trade measures just as its tribunal slaps Mexico’s hand for its public health policies.

According to the U.S. government, the final report from the tribunal, announced December 20, ruled that “Mexico’s measures are not based on science and undermine the market access that Mexico agreed to provide in the USMCA.” In fact, the trade panel’s ruling was more limited, demanding that Mexico comply with the trade agreement’s procedures for carrying out risk assessments based on “relevant international scientific principles.”

The Mexican government defended its position but vowed to comply with the ruling. “The Government of Mexico does not share the Panel’s determination, as it considers that the measures in question are in line with the principles of protection of public health and the rights of indigenous peoples, established in national legislation and in the international treaties to which it is a party,” read a statement following the ruling.

The ruling will not settle the debate over the health and environmental risks of GM corn and its associated herbicides, In the course of the dispute, Mexico produced extensive peer-reviewed scientific evidence that showed ample cause for precaution given the risks associated with both GM corn and its associated herbicide glyphosate. Recent studies have shown negative health impacts to the gastrointestinal tract and potential damage to the liver, kidneys, and other organs.

“[We] did an exhaustive review of the scientific literature,” explained María Elena Àlvarez-Buylla, the molecular geneticist who led Mexico’s national science agency, CONAHCYT, until October. “We concluded that the evidence was more than sufficient to restrict, out of precaution, the use of GM corn and its associated agro-chemical, glyphosate, in the country’s food supply chains.”

That evidence was presented in great detail to the tribunal in Mexico’s formal filings during the process, and it has now been published as a “Science Dossier.” It represents one of the most comprehensive reviews of the scientific evidence of the risks of GM corn and glyphosate to public health and the environment.

For its part, the U.S. government declined to present evidence that its GM corn with glyphosate residues is safe to eat in Mexico, where corn is consumed at more than ten times the levels as in the United States and in minimally processed forms such as tortillas, not in processed foods.

“The research on the part of the U.S. was quite poor,” says Dr. Álvarez-Buylla, noting that U.S. research was outdated, ignored many recent studies, and depended on science that is “full of conflicts of interest.”

The U.S. government also failed to produce any evidence that Mexico’s February 2023 presidential decree had any meaningful impacts on U.S. exporters. U.S. corn exports have increased since the decree was enacted, not shrunk. The measures restricted only GM white corn use in tortillas, less than 1% of the U.S. corn exported to Mexico.

Early on in the dispute, Mexican Economy Minister Raquel Buenrostro stated that the U.S. needed to show “quantitatively, with numbers, something that has not occurred: that the corn decree has commercially affected” U.S. exporters. The U.S. has yet to produce any such evidence.

Meanwhile, president-elect Trump’s threatened tariffs are blatantly illegal under the USMCA and promise to inflict massive economic harm on Mexican exporters, and on U.S.-based firms that produce in Mexico.

The pro-U.S., pro-agrochemical industry ruling will ripple far beyond this dispute. Mexico’s documentation of the evidence of risk from GM corn and glyphosate should prompt consumers and governments the world over to take a closer look at these controversial products, and at the lax U.S. regulatory processes exposed by Mexico.

Countries considering entering into trade agreements with the United States may now be more reluctant to do so if their domestic policies can be challenged in a trade court. Kenya has been negotiating a trade agreement with the United States. Kenyans are already concerned the agreement will open Kenya to GM animal feeds, says Anne Maina of the Kenya Biodiversity and Biosafety Association. If the agreement can be used to challenge domestic policies, she says, it will be even less palatable.

It remains to be seen how the Mexican government will comply with the ruling. It has 45 days to respond. Already, President Claudia Sheinbaum has reiterated her support for a constitutional amendment to enshrine a ban on GM corn cultivation and consumption in tortillas. A “Right to Food” law passed last year mandates labeling of foods containing GMOs. No tortilla seller wants such a label on its products, because Mexican consumers are clear that they do not want GM corn in their tortillas.

The tribunal’s ruling will not undo the fact that Mexico’s precautionary policies are indeed justified by a wealth of scientific evidence. By allowing the trade agreement to undermine a domestic policy that barely affects trade, it will further tarnish the legitimacy of an agreement already seen as favoring multinational corporations over public health and the environment.

Timothy A. Wise is a senior research fellow at Tufts University’s Global Development and Environment Institute.

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By Maina Waruru
NAIROBI, Dec 23 2024 – Climate and environmental activists from Japan have criticized the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) for financing the controversial Mozambique Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project to the tune of USD 3 billion in a loan signed in July.

The project has been associated with the displacement of thousands of people and is in violation of Japan’s G7 commitment to end direct public support for overseas fossil fuel projects.

The bank’s action is also projected to have far-reaching effects on climate and the environment, further negatively impacting the livelihoods of communities in the restive Cabo Delgado province in the north of the county, a report says.

Conflict in the region has been linked to insurgency and human rights abuses by the country’s security forces.

In the report “Faces of Impact: How JBIC and Japan’s LNG Financing Harm Communities and the Planet” by Friends of Earth (FOE), Japan activists find that in Mozambique, at least 550 families were displaced for the Rovuma LNG project, exposing them to risk as it is situated in a conflict-torn region and has been linked to human rights abuses of civilians.

The project is further backed by the Japanese bank through a loan of U$536 million to Mitsui, a Japanese corporate group, also one of the owners of the project, and which describes the project as “one of the largest natural gas reserves discovered anywhere in the world in recent years.”

The money will finance the development and production of LNG in a region where thousands of civilians have been displaced by both violence and the gas development activities since 2012, some without compensation for their land.

The LNG project intends to extract 65 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, which will be done offshore in the Rovuma Basin and piped to an onshore LNG processing plant on the Afungi Peninsula.

“The project began its onshore construction activities in 2019 but was suspended in 2021 as a result of violent conflict. It has not officially resumed, but some of its activities have been restarted since 2023,” the report explains. The insurgency remains active, and human rights infringements resulting from the project activities remain unresolved, it further cautions.

“The Mozambique LNG project is linked to violent conflict, has resulted in social injustices on Mozambican citizens, and is a potential source of massive carbon emissions. It has already cost the country productive lands, local economies, and valuable natural areas,” it warns.

Should the project proceed as planned and despite becoming the biggest gas project in Africa, it will deliver low revenues to the host country and place the country at risk of liability if it fails, the report opines.

Owned by a consortium of seven companies, including the Mozambique state company Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH). All except ENH control their shares through offshore companies, with TotalEnergies being the majority owner and operator.

It finds that there is a “pattern of harm and destruction” in JBIC-financed gas projects, and communities have conveyed to the bank that it is violating its own “Guidelines for Confirmation of Environmental and Social Considerations.”

According to Kete Fumo of the advocacy group Justiça Ambiental and Friends of Earth Mozambique, the project is indirectly contributing to the insurgency that has plagued the region for years.

“People in at least 17 districts are exposed to terrorist attacks. Some families in Palma district, for example, have been displaced but have not been offered any compensation yet. They had lots of extensive land, but not anymore; they have lost their only source of sustenance,” she said during a webinar to launch the report hosted by FOE Japan.

By 2018, when the census of affected communities in Palma was updated, some 616 families were identified, and another 1,847 families were found to be “economically affected” by the loss of their farmland handed over to the project, added Fumo.

“The environmental issues surrounding the project are already very visible, with accentuated erosion, increased weather events, and the fact that it is considered one of the six carbon bombs in the world, with Mozambique being one of the African countries most vulnerable to climate change,” she told IPS in an interview.

Failure to comply with compensation agreements entered between the affected and TotalEnergies posed a big problem for communities that, due to the lack of land for cultivation, now produce much less food than they did before the project arrived.

This has left them exposed to food insecurity, with fishing communities lacking access to fishing areas contributing to hunger in the villages.

“The insecurity scenario in Palma also makes accessibility to the district deficient, which makes the price of basic necessities more expensive in a community where families’ sources of income have been cut off by the project. People need to reinvent themselves to be able to support their families, but this is a scenario where not everyone has the capacity or conditions to do so,” the activist added.

She called for the abandonment of the project, saying that “not implementing the project and leaving people living in their homes with their livelihoods, culture, and traditions has been the call made by Justica Ambiental since the beginning of this process.”

“In the history of Mozambique and in our experience with mega projects, no resettlement has had positive results. The call continues to be that this project should not be implemented, since even before a drop of gas had been exploited, the impacts were already negatively affecting the communities,” Fumo appealed.

In one of the affected villages of Macala, 50 kilometres off the Indian Ocean coastline, residents claimed they had lost not less than 7,000 hectares of land alienated for LNG exploration and development, with no compensation so far.

One of the victims, Omar Amise, said, “We have received no compensation so far, and our lands have been destroyed by new infrastructure, including roads. Our children are starving because our lands have been taken by roads.”

According to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), by January 2024, over 582,000 were still displaced in Cabo Delgado province, due to recurring attacks on civilians and governmental forces by “Non-State Armed Groups” since 2017. The numbers grew to over one million at the height of the conflict in 2021 and 2022, adds the UN agency.

From the end of December 2023, over 8,000 people have also been newly displaced as a result of attacks by insurgents in the province’s Macomia, Mecufi, Metuge, Mocímboa da Praia, Muidumbe, and Quissanga districts, adds the UNHCR.

An article published in September 2024 by the magazine Politico alleged that a Mozambican army unit operating near the Mozambique LNG project site carried out a series of atrocities, including rape, torture, and the murder or disappearance of at least 97 people.

It claimed that TotalEnergies was aware of the atrocities by the army in the wider area, while it paid a Joint Task Force made up of army soldiers, commandos, and paramilitary police for its LNG site protection.

Back to the FOE report, it claims that since 2016, JBIC has provided a staggering UD18.6 billion to fossil gas expansion—four times more than Japan’s contribution to the Green Climate Fund.

The bank is also blamed for supporting similar fossils energy projects amounting to USD18.5 billion in the Philippines, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Thailand, Australia, Vietnam, and the United States

Our enquiries on the claims made by FOE were answered by either the French Energy multinational or JBIC.

IPS UN Bureau Report

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By Madhurima Sarkar-Swaisgood and Sanjay Srivastava
BANGKOK, Thailand, Dec 23 2024 – In December 2024, Vanuatu experienced yet another harrowing reminder of its vulnerability to disasters—a powerful 7.4 magnitude earthquake struck the Pacific nation’s capital, Port Vila, leaving 14 dead, over 200 injured, and thousands more affected.

The devastating earthquake, compounded by overnight aftershocks and disrupted essential services, highlights the precarious situation faced by countries already grappling with the impacts of climate change and natural disasters.

Vanuatu is emblematic of the cascading disasters that Pacific Island nations increasingly endure, where frequent earthquakes intersect with the escalating impacts of climate-induced hazards such as cyclones, rising sea levels, and coastal erosion accompanied by staggering loss and damage experienced by vulnerable populations and ecosystems.

With every fraction of a degree of warming, the region’s diverse subregions—from the icy peaks of the Third Pole to the low-lying islands of the Pacific—are encountering unparalleled climate risks.

Recognizing these unique challenges, ESCAP launched the 2024 Asia-Pacific Subregional Disaster Reports to customize the insights and recommendations from the flagship Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2023 to the distinct vulnerabilities and opportunities within each subregion.

Transformative insights: Shaping climate resilient futures

The 2024 subregional reports reveal escalating disaster risks across Asia and the Pacific, stressing that incremental actions are insufficient against intensifying climate impacts. East and North-East Asia has faced $2 trillion in economic losses and nearly half a million fatalities over five decades, with 2°C warming expected to exacerbate droughts, heatwaves, and floods in China, Mongolia and Korea, threatening urban centers and critical systems.

North and Central Asia faces growing multi-hazard risks in the Aral Sea Basin, where droughts, heatwaves, and floods will endanger agriculture and energy systems. In South-East Asia, nearly 100 per cent of the population is at risk of floods under 2°C warming, with the Mekong River Basin emerging as a persistent multi-hazard hotspot.

Pacific island nations face rising seas and stronger cyclones that erode coastlines, threaten biodiversity, and force communities to relocate, while South and South-West Asia grapples with glacial melt from the Third Pole, jeopardizing water security for 1.3 billion people.

Economic and social costs are mounting, with average annual losses (AAL) projected to rise under warming scenarios. East and North-East Asia’s AAL of $510 billion could increase further under 2°C warming, while the Pacific’s AAL exceeds $20 billion, with small island developing states like Vanuatu and Tonga suffering losses of over 21 per cent of GDP.

Despite these dire projections, the reports emphasize that investments in transformative adaptation—such as early warning systems, resilient infrastructure, and integrated climate policies—can mitigate risks and protect livelihoods across the region.

Early warning systems: A lifeline for resilience

A critical takeaway from the subregional reports is the transformative role of early warning systems (EWS) in disaster risk reduction. By providing timely and actionable information, these systems save lives and reduce economic losses. In South-East Asia, effective EWS could prevent $8.7 billion to $13.1 billion annually, while in the Pacific, they could avert $4 billion to $6 billion in damages each year.

EWS are especially vital in regions with complex multi-hazard risks, such as the Pacific small island developing States, where cyclones, floods, and sea-level rise intersect, and in South-East Asia, where urban flood risks are rapidly escalating.

For EWS to be fully effective, they must encompass four key pillars: risk knowledge, detection and monitoring, dissemination of warnings, and preparedness. Investments in these areas, combined with robust regional cooperation, can ensure that warnings reach the most vulnerable populations in time to act.

The reports highlight examples like impact-based forecasting in South and Southwest Asia and AI-powered risk assessments in China and Japan as transformative advancements in EWS implementation. These systems not only save lives but also help governments and communities reduce disaster recovery costs and safeguard economic stability.

Transboundary solutions: Collaborative action for shared risks

Transboundary risks like ocean-based hazards, inland water stress, and desertification demand collaborative solutions across regions.

1. Ocean-Based Climate Action:

Rising sea levels, intensified cyclones, and coastal erosion require collective efforts such as mangrove restoration and integrated coastal management. In the Pacific SIDS, ASEAN, and South-West Asia, platforms like the Pacific Resilience Partnership and Mekong Basin initiatives foster nature-based solutions to protect ecosystems and livelihoods.

2. Inland Water Systems:

The drying of the Aral Sea Basin in North and Central Asia highlights the importance of transboundary water-sharing agreements to combat drought and degradation. For Third Pole glacial melt, collaboration through the Third Pole Climate Forum is vital to safeguard water security for 1.3 billion people in South, South-West, and East Asia.

3. Desertification and Sand and Dust Storms:

Desertification and sand and dust storms (SDS) are accelerating across Asia. Countries like China, Mongolia, and Iran are advancing afforestation and land restoration, while regional frameworks promote sustainable land management to mitigate downstream impacts.

By prioritizing transboundary cooperation, countries can tackle shared risks, protect vulnerable communities, and build scalable solutions for resilience.

A call for transformative change

The 2024 subregional reports make it unequivocally clear: transformative, not incremental, adaptation is needed to combat the growing threats of climate change and disasters. This means embedding climate resilience in every sector—agriculture, energy, urban planning, and biodiversity conservation—while fostering regional cooperation to address transboundary risks.

By aligning local action with global frameworks like the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Paris Agreement, the Asia-Pacific region has an opportunity to lead the way in building a sustainable and resilient future. As ESCAP’s subregional reports demonstrate, the tools and knowledge are at hand. The time to act is now—before the risks become irreversible and the costs unmanageable.

Madhurima Sarkar-Swaisgood is Economic Affairs Officer, ESCAP & Sanjay Srivastava is Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP. Other co-authors include Leila Salarpour Goodarzi, Associate Economic Affairs Officer, ESCAP, Rusali Agrawal, Consultant, ESCAP, Naina Tanwar, Consultant, ESCAP, Madhurima Sarkar-Swaisgood, Economic Affairs Officer, ESCAP and Sanjay Srivastava, Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP.

IPS UN Bureau

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