By Jean-Paul Adam
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 24 2024 – Securing new financing for global good has become more challenging than ever. Negotiations at the recently-concluded COP16 on Nature and Biodiversity failed to reach an agreement on establishing a fund to support the implementation of the Framework for Nature agreed in 2022 under the Montreal-Kunming agreement.

As with all multilateral action, commitments without resources lead to questions on the effectiveness of these global processes. The gap between global commitments and actual resource allocation hits African countries the hardest, as these countries often have limited capacity to generate those resources in the first place.

African negotiators have underscored the need for accountability in honouring multilateral commitments and will continue to maintain this stance at the upcoming climate negotiations.

Meanwhile, many African countries are actively seeking to unlock new funding streams for climate and environmental resilience through financial innovations such as debt swaps, green bonds, and blue bonds.

The Blue Economy has emerged as a key area of focus for Africa, and one of the priorities outlined in AU’s Agenda 2063. However, African countries continued to struggle in controlling and benefitting from their own resources.

A good example is the continuing deployment of harmful fisheries subsidies. The value of subsidies by distant fishing nations for their fleets operating in African waters representing on average twice the value of support that African nations are able to provide for their own fishing fleets.

This disparity undermines local economies and depletes Africa’s Ocean resources, further complicating efforts to build a sustainable and resilient blue economy.

The Great Blue Wall

African countries have sought to redefine the way in which they leverage their oceanic spaces to develop a ‘regenerative blue economy’. This implies re-investing in the ocean to create jobs that engage the community who are the stewards of oceans and coastal eco-systems.

This has been conceptualized through the Great Blue Wall initiative, an ambitious project that seeks to create a network of conserved and restored seascapes that benefit both the natural biodiversity and local communities’ livelihoods.

The initiative aims to protect 30% of the countries Exclusive Economic Zones by 2030 and produce a net gain in critical ecosystems like mangroves, corals and seagrasses. It is hoped that the initiative can contribute up to 70 million livelihoods in the region and up to 10 million blue jobs by 2030.

The Great Blue Wall initiative brings together 10 countries: Comoros, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Seychelles, Somalia, South Africa, Tanzania, and France (through its overseas department of La Réunion). These countries are working together to enhance socio-ecological resilience, improve livelihoods, and strengthen climate change adaptation efforts.

Financing

Crucially, the initiative is seeking to raise financing towards a collective goal, while building on efforts being made by individual countries. This brings certain advantages, notably in creating economies of scale.

This common approach can also provide significant leverage in addressing issues such as fisheries management and moving away from the current extractive nature of fisheries subsidies to a community-led approach to the management of the resource.

Additionally, many other African countries are looking to tap into innovative climate finance opportunities to generate resources for investment in their blue economy.

For example, Cabo Verde and São Tomé and Príncipe have entered into agreements with Portugal to convert portions of their national debt into climate investments. For Cabo Verde, the agreement involves a debt swap of $12.9 million (€12 million), while São Tomé and Príncipe’s agreement covers $3.7 million (€3.5 million). These funds are redirected into climate investment projects rather than being paid directly to Portugal.

In Cabo Verde, the focus is on water, sanitation, and energy projects, including the expansion of a photovoltaic plant and the development of desalination and water treatment facilities. The initiative aims to use solar energy to produce desalinated water, addressing both energy and water needs.

São Tomé and Príncipe will similarly channel their debt repayments into a national climate fund, supporting various green investments and climate change adaptation projects.

This innovative approach ensures that the debt repayments contribute to sustainable development and environmental protection in these countries. While the amounts are relatively small, they can be catalysts for mobilizing larger funds.

It is with this in mind that Sao Tome and Principe have also announced the creation of a Conservation Trust Fund aimed at channeling resources into the preservation of their unique natural heritage and leveraging new associated economic opportunities such as eco-tourism.

All of these efforts to mobilize innovative climate financing are rooted in the needs of populations who are on the front line of climate change. This is perhaps the most meaningful part of these efforts, because it underscores the greatest challenge of multilateralism: ensuring that support is delivered to the most vulnerable in the community.

Investing in the nexus between climate, nature, and resilience is one of the most urgent and effective actions we can take. The right investments can help unlock the true value of Africa’s natural assets, estimated by the African Development Bank (AfDB) to be worth as much as USD $6.2 trillion.

We need global processes to deliver on the promise of predictable flows of finance at scale. However, equally important is the need to unlock African-driven initiatives that are built within communities. These innovations are helping to start that journey, paving the way for a meaningful change, empowering communities while addressing the challenges of climate change.

Jean-Paul Adam is the Director, Policy, Monitoring and Advocacy at the UN Office of the Special Adviser on Africa.

Source: Africa Renewal, United Nations

IPS UN Bureau

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By Catherine Wilson
SKOPJE, North Macedonia , Dec 24 2024 – It’s a bright winter day in Skopje, the capital of North Macedonia in the southern Balkans. By lunchtime, the cafes are full. The atmosphere is busy and social, and it is not difficult to see why the city, home to one-third of the country’s population of 2 million, is the focus of hope for young jobseekers. But, for many, it is not an easy road.

“It’s very tough to get employment. Young people here are waiting up to 18 months to find their first job,” 28-year-old Aleksandra Filipova told IPS. “But I am hopeful for the future,” she added. Filipova understands the challenges her generation faces and is determined to make hope a reality through her work with the National Youth Council of Macedonia, where she is Program Manager.

Last year, the global youth unemployment rate of 13 percent marked a significant decline in 15 years, reports the International Labour Organization (ILO). But the situation varies widely across regions. Large youth populations, uneven post-COVID-19 economic recovery, the Ukraine war and energy crisis, structural labour market issues, and socio-cultural expectations have contributed to above-average unemployment rates in parts of the Balkans, Middle East, and North Africa (MENA).

Skopje, the capital of North Macedonia, is home to one quarter of the country’s population and a focus for young jobseekers. Credit: Catherine Wilson/IPS

The Republic of North Macedonia is a landlocked nation located south of Serbia and north of Greece. It gained independence from the former Yugoslavia in 1991 and is planning accession to the European Union (EU). Economic growth has been slow in recent years. But a major obstacle in securing a job, even for the highly educated, is a mismatch between educational qualifications and skills required by employers. It’s a key factor in the youth unemployment rate of 28 percent, more than double the national rate of 13 percent.

“Our education system is based on theoretical knowledge and not on technical and vocational skills. Employers want to employ young people, but they need them to have other skills,” Filipova said. For the private sector, especially small and medium-sized businesses, “soft skills are missing, even just how to write an email or how to talk to people in a business environment. Entrepreneurial skills are needed. There is also a lack of people who speak foreign languages for global businesses,” she pointed out.

The National Youth Council of Macedonia has rolled out a paid internship program, in association with the government’s Youth Guarantee policy, which is generating employment success for the country’s youth. Credit: National Youth Council of Macedonia

The transition from education to work can be a disappointing experience for new jobseekers. And many, up to 45 percent of those employed, are turning to jobs unrelated to their education or informal work, such as market selling and seasonal hospitality work. Young women who face traditional social expectations are also highly represented in informal employment.

Long-term joblessness is a real risk. Last year, more than 73 percent of all unemployed people in the country had been out of work for more than a year, while one in five young people were not in employment or education, reports the ILO.

But, in 2018, the North Macedonian Government launched the Youth Guarantee policy—a pledge to respond to youth challenges. Four years later, aligned with the policy, the youth council launched a paid internship program, now hailed a major success. Today, 2,000 employers participate in offering two-month work placements.

“It works well for them [the employers] because they say that, after two months, they have long-term employees. During the internship, youths have learned the skills needed by the business,” Filipova said. “So they are investing in the long-term future of their business.” And 70 percent of young people who have taken a paid internship are now employed.

North Macedonia was the first Balkan country to implement the Youth Guarantee and demonstrate its success.

“About 60,000 young people have taken part in the Youth Guarantee program in North Macedonia so far. I’d like to point out that since 2019, statistics related to the labour market show significant and major improvement in relation to young people. The youth employment rate has increased by 3.5 percentage points compared to 2018,” North Macedonia’s Minister for Labour and Social Policy, Jagoda Shahpaska, told the media in 2021.

Youth employment is a significant focus of the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals, and other internationally agreed frameworks emphasize the importance of youth development and engagement, and youth are seen as key to achieving the SDGS. 

One of the challenges youth face in the transition from education to employment is a skills mismatch with what recruiters require. Credit: LOYAC Jordan

Across the Mediterranean in the Levant region, youth face a similar plight in Jordan, where 63 percent of the population of 11 million people are aged under 30 years. The Hashemite Kingdom, which has managed economic stability while hosting more than 3 million refugees fleeing from conflicts in neighbouring Syria and the occupied Palestinian Territories, has a youth unemployment rate of 40 percent. It’s a common challenge across the MENA region, where one in three young people are unemployed and where 33 million new jobs will need to emerge by 2030 to meet the demands of working-age populations, forecasts the United Nations.

Every year, 100,000 young Jordanians, many highly educated, strive to enter the workforce. Economic growth is not generating enough jobs, and even the large public sector is unable to absorb increasing jobseekers.

“Jordan is one of the few Arab countries outside of the Gulf that has continued to provide fairly large numbers of public sector jobs to new jobseekers as part of its social pact, but this is fiscally very costly and distorts labour market incentives,” Dr. Steffen Hertog, Associate Professor in Comparative Politics at the London School of Economics and Political Science, told IPS.

Amman, Jordan’s capital, a sprawling city on the edge of the Jordan Valley, is the administrative and commercial heartbeat of the country. Here, Ali Haddad, Executive Director of the Jordan Youth Innovation Forum, a national youth development organization, told IPS that many youths have “a strong preference for public sector jobs, as they are seen as more stable,” but growing the private sector was vital.

“Expanding businesses can absorb the increasing numbers of young jobseekers; private industries encourage skills development and innovation; and a robust private sector contributes to GDP growth, benefiting the economy and opening more opportunities for youth,” he said.

However, ensuring people can access opportunities is also essential. Ahmad Asfour, General Manager of LOYAC Jordan, a local social enterprise focused on youth skills development, said there were also rural-urban disparities in the country. “Employment opportunities are concentrated in urban areas, making it difficult for rural youth to access jobs,” while “women often face extra challenges such as societal norms, lack of childcare, and unequal pay.”

The skills mismatch with labour market expectations is a major hurdle too. Youths need communication, teamwork, and problem-solving skills, and an entrepreneurial mindset with critical thinking, innovation, digital, and business skills, Asfour said. LOYAC has also found success in bridging the gap with a national internship program. “We annually train 1,200 students and match 850 with internships on a national level, providing many with the skills, confidence, and connections necessary to secure employment,” Asfour said.

Empowering the younger generation is part of the Jordan Government’s 10-year development and modernization strategy, announced in 2021. It is committed “to provide a stimulating environment that enables young people to unleash their creative energies and contribute effectively to economic and social development,” Eng. Yazan Al-Shdeifat, Jordan’s Minister for Youth, said in a statement on 24 November.

And there have been entrepreneurial successes, Haddad emphasised, such as Arab Therapy, an online service that offers expert mental health support by Arab-speaking professionals to people worldwide. And Mawdoo3, founded by young Jordanian entrepreneurs, Mohammad Jaber and Rami Al Qawasmi, is now the world’s largest Arabic content platform and, in 2021, was listed by Forbes as one of the most visited websites in the Middle East.

Beyond the unemployment statistics, there are increasing numbers of youth finding employment success through dedicated initiatives in both regions. There is still a long way to go. But growing the successes is crucial for the generation that will determine future sustainable economic and national development in their countries and beyond.

Note: This article is brought to you by IPS Noram in collaboration with INPS Japan and Soka Gakkai International in consultative status with ECOSOC.

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By Aditi Mukherji and Cargele Masso
NAIROBI, Kenya, Dec 24 2024 – This year has been a landmark one for climate and environment policy. Starting with the UN’s COP16 biodiversity talks in October, followed by the COP29 climate talks in November, and closing with the desertification COP16 in December, few years have offered such critical moments back-to-back.

This created an unprecedented opportunity to bolster food systems against climate change, improve their environmental impacts, and concretize support for smallholder farmers – some of the people most affected by climate change, land degradation, and biodiversity loss.

Across the summits, negotiators broadly agreed on the need to integrate food systems into the UN’s three environmental frameworks, a step in the right direction given the interconnectedness of food and agriculture, and the environment at large. However, to build on the flagship UAE Declaration on food systems at the COP28 climate talks in 2023, the global community must urgently ramp up financing and action to make good on the ambitious goals set.

In other words, the next 12 months to the COP30 climate talks in Brazil are critical for “walking the talk” of the COPs this year. To make the most of the opportunity for food systems to support environmental and climate goals, several steps are needed.

The first is increased investment into low-emissions technologies and innovations for food systems. This includes both investment into new and emerging solutions as well as financing for scaling up existing technologies.

Just as increased investment and support in recent decades led to a solar energy boom, causing the price of solar panels to fall sharply and became cheaper than fossil fuels, food systems need similar long-term and sustained investments. Channelling international finance towards agricultural research and development would accelerate and scale affordable, impactful, and clean technologies that curb emissions and enhance biodiversity while also supporting adaptation and rural livelihoods.

Green ammonia, for instance, is a promising new sector for food and agriculture. It reduces emissions from fertiliser production by utilising renewable energy sources, such as wind or solar power, to fuel the traditional Haber–Bosch process. But at present, green ammonia is more expensive than its fossil fuel-based alternative, and requires more research to achieve cost-effective production in the years to come.

Second, finance is urgently needed to cover the costs and potential short-term losses as farmers adopt low-emission, regenerative agricultural practices. The transition to sustainable agriculture is not without costs, and supporting countries and communities as they make this shift is essential to long-term implementation. For example, payment for ecosystem services, including carbon credits, is worth exploring and implementing.

As it stands, food systems receive only around 0.8 per cent of climate finance, totalling $28.5 billion average yearly. This is far from the estimated $212 billion needed annually to reduce food systems’ environmental footprint, which currently account for one third of all global greenhouse gas emissions. Increased finance in food systems represents a huge opportunity to bring the world back on track to reach climate targets.

The need for finance goes beyond just climate goals. There is also a need for increased finance for biodiversity to fully implement the Global Biodiversity Framework and land degradation neutrality. At the same time, these seemingly competing finance needs can be coordinated to make best use of resources to make progress across the board. Reducing and phasing out harmful subsidies and mobilizing financial resources to enhance biodiversity and ecosystem gains, both targets under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, are paramount to deliver on all three Rio Conventions.

Finally, harmonizing policy can help address this by optimizing the use of resources like finance. Improving policy coherence across climate adaptation and mitigation can help maximize impacts and reduce trade-offs.

For instance, there are currently different country-level policy frameworks to reduce emissions and protect biodiversity: Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs). While both acknowledge the interconnectedness between climate and biodiversity, their implementation has been fragmented and siloed. This means we are missing out on the “double-wins”, more often duplicating efforts and even undermining sustainability goals.

Integrating the three Rio Conventions on biodiversity, desertification, and climate is fundamental. Though they are separate frameworks, they cannot operate in siloes, especially regarding food systems, because they are deeply interconnected.

This includes improved coordination to minimize competition for resources like finance and transaction costs, while enhancing systems thinking.

Food systems offer an opportunity for just and fair climate action, simultaneously vulnerable and powerful when it comes to the impacts of climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation. Given that next year will be a single-COP year, attention must return to the opportunities for food systems to reduce emissions and enhance biodiversity and ecosystem gains, at the same time as supporting a just transition to ensure we sustain not only the planet, but all humanity too.

Aditi Mukherji, CGIAR’s Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Impact Action Platform and IPCC author

Cargele Masso, Director of the CGIAR Impact Platform on Environmental Health and Biodiversity

IPS UN Bureau

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By Andrew Firmin and Inés M. Pousadela
LONDON / MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay, Dec 24 2024 – It’s been a tumultuous year, and a tough one for struggles for human rights. Civil society’s work to seek social justice and hold the powerful to account has been tested at every turn. Civil society has kept holding the line, resisting power grabs and regressive legislation, calling out injustice and claiming some victories, often at great cost. And things aren’t about to get any easier, as key challenges identified in 2024 are likely to intensify in 2025.

Andrew Firmin

1. More people are likely to be exposed to conflict and its consequences, including humanitarian and human rights disasters, mass displacement and long-term trauma. The message of 2024 is largely one of impunity: perpetrators of conflict, including in Israel and Russia, will be confident they can resist international pressure and escape accountability. While there may be some kind of ceasefire in Gaza or halt to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, those responsible for large-scale atrocities are unlikely to face justice. Impunity is also likely to prevail in the conflicts taking place largely off the global radar, including in Myanmar and Sudan. There will also be growing concern about the use of AI and automated weapons in warfare, a troublingly under-regulated area.

As recent events in Lebanon and Syria have shown, changing dynamics, including shifting calculations made by countries such as Iran, Israel, Russia, Turkey and the USA, mean that frozen conflicts could reignite and new ones could erupt. As in Syria, these shifts could create sudden moments of opportunity; the international community and civil society must respond quickly when these come.

Inés M. Pousadela

2. The second Trump administration will have a global impact on many current challenges. It’s likely to reduce pressure on Israel, hamper the response to the climate crisis, put more strain on already flawed and struggling global governance institutions and embolden right-wing populists and nationalists the world over. These will bring negative consequences for civic space – the space for civil society, which depends on the freedoms of association, expression and peaceful assembly. Funding for civil society is also likely to be drastically reduced as a result of the new administration’s shifting priorities.

3. 2025 is the year that states are required to develop new plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change under the Paris Agreement. The process will culminate in the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, likely the world’s last chance to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees above preindustrial levels. This will only happen if states stand up to fossil fuel companies and look beyond narrow short-term interests. Failing that, more of the debate may come to focus on adaptation. The unresolved question of who will pay for climate transition will remain central. Meanwhile, extreme weather events such as heatwaves and floods can be expected to continue to devastate communities, impose high economic costs, drive migration and exacerbate conflicts.

4. Globally, economic dysfunction is likely to increase, with more people struggling to afford basic necessities, increasingly including housing, as prices continue to rise, with climate change and conflict among the causes. The gap between the struggling many and the ultra-wealthy few will become more visible, and anger at rising prices or taxes will drive people – particularly young people deprived of opportunities – onto the streets. State repression will often follow. Frustration with the status quo means people will keep looking for political alternatives, a situation right-wing populists and nationalists will keep exploiting. But demands for labour rights, particularly among younger workers, will also likely increase, along with pressure for policies such as wealth taxes, a universal basic income and a shorter working week.

5. A year when the largest number of people ever went to the polls has ended – but there are still plenty of elections to come. Where elections are free and fair, voters are likely to keep rejecting incumbents, particularly due to economic hardship. Right-wing populists and nationalists are likely to benefit the most, but the tide will eventually turn: once they’ve been around long enough to be perceived as part of the political establishment, they too will see their positions threatened, and they can be expected to respond with authoritarianism, repression and the scapegoating of excluded groups. More politically manipulated misogyny, homophobia, transphobia and anti-migrant rhetoric can be expected as a result.

6. Even if developments in generative AI slow as the current model reaches the limits of the human-generated material it feeds on, international regulation and data protection will likely continue to lag behind. The use of AI-enabled surveillance, such as facial recognition, against activists is likely to increase and become more normalised. The challenge of disinformation is likely to intensify, particularly around conflicts and elections.

Several tech leaders have actively taken the side of right-wing populists and authoritarians, putting their platforms and wealth at the service of their political ambitions. Emerging alternative social media platforms offer some promise but are likely to face similar problems as they grow.

7. Climate change, conflict, economic strife, repression of LGBTQI+ identities and civil and political repression will continue to drive displacement and migration. Most migrants will remain in difficult and underfunded conditions in global south countries. In the global north, right-wing shifts are expected to drive more restrictive and repressive policies, including the deportation of migrants to countries where they may be at risk. Attacks on civil society working to defend their rights, including by assisting at sea and land borders, are also likely to intensify.

8. The backlash against women’s and LGBTQI+ rights will continue. The US right wing will continue to fund anti-rights movements in the global south, notably in Commonwealth African countries, while European conservative groups will continue to export their anti-rights campaigns, as some Spanish organisations have long done throughout Latin America. Disinformation efforts from multiple sources, including Russian state media, will continue to influence public opinion. This will leave civil society largely on the defensive, focused on consolidating gains and preventing setbacks.

9. As a result of these trends, the ability of civil society organisations and activists to operate freely will remain under pressure in the majority of countries. Just when its work is most needed, civil society will face growing restrictions on fundamental civic freedoms, including in the form of anti-NGO laws and laws that label civil society as agents of foreign powers, the criminalisation of protests and increasing threats to the safety of activists and journalists. Civil society will have to devote more of its resources to protecting its space, at the expense of the resources available to promote and advance rights.

10. Despite these many challenges, civil society will continue to strive on all fronts. It will continue to combine advocacy, protests, online campaigns, strategic litigation and international diplomacy. As awareness grows of the interconnected and transnational nature of the challenges, it will emphasise solidarity actions that transcend national boundaries and make connections between different struggles in different contexts.

Even in difficult circumstances, civil society achieved some notable victories in 2024. In the Czech Republic, civil society’s efforts led to a landmark reform of rape laws, and in Poland they resulted in a law making emergency contraception available without prescription, overturning previous restrictive legislation. After extensive civil society advocacy, Thailand led the way in Southeast Asia by passing a marriage equality law, while Greece became the first predominantly Christian Orthodox country to legalise same-sex marriage

People defended democracy. In South Korea, people took to the streets in large numbers to resist martial law, while in Bangladesh, protest action led to the ousting of a longstanding authoritarian government. In Guatemala, a president committed to fighting corruption was sworn in after civil society organised mass protests to demand that powerful elites respect the election results, and in Venezuela, hundreds of thousands organised to defend the integrity of the election, defeated the authoritarian government in the polls and took to the streets in the face of severe repression when the results weren’t recognised. In Senegal, civil society mobilised to prevent an attempt to postpone an election that resulted in an opposition win.

Civil society won victories in climate and environmental litigation – including in Ecuador, India and Switzerland – to force governments to recognise the human rights impacts of climate change and do more to reduce emissions and curb pollution. Civil society also took to the courts to pressure governments to stop arms sales to Israel, with a successful verdict in the Netherlands and others pending.

In 2025, the struggle continues. Civil society will keep carrying the torch of hope that a more peaceful, just, equal and sustainable world is possible. This idea will remain as important as the tangible impact we’ll continue to achieve despite the difficult circumstances.

Andrew Firmin is Editor-in-Chief and Inés M. Pousadela is Senior Research Specialist at CIVICUS: World Alliance for Citizen Participation. The two are co-directors and writers for CIVICUS Lens and co-authors of the State of Civil Society Report.

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By CIVICUS
Dec 23 2024 –  
CIVICUS discusses the ongoing crackdown on civil society in Belarus with Natallia Satsunkevich, human rights defender and interim board member of the Viasna Human Rights Centre.

Belarusian authorities have stepped up arrests in a bid to stifle any remaining opposition to President Alexander Lukashenko, who is seeking a seventh term in the January 2025 presidential election. Over 1,200 people have been detained since the end of September, many for participating in online chats that have been used to organise protests since the 2020 election. The authorities describe these as part of an extremist network. Some of those arrested have been charged with conspiracy to seize power, carrying a potential prison sentence of up to 15 years. Around 1,300 political prisoners are currently being held in overcrowded prisons, while opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya remains in exile.

Natallia Satsunkevich

How has the political atmosphere changed in the run-up to the presidential election?

As the presidential election approaches, the authorities have intensified their crackdown on civil society and political opposition. This isn’t new – repression has been escalating since the protests following the 2020 stolen election – but in recent months it has taken an even darker turn.

One of the regime’s main tools is the criminalisation of independent organisations and media. Viasna, for example, has been declared an ‘extremist formation’. This means anyone who interacts with us – whether by sharing information, giving an interview or offering support – risks being arrested and prosecuted. This level of repression has created a climate of fear where people are too afraid to speak out about human rights abuses or take part in activism.

There has also been an increase in arrests, house searches and interrogations. Many of those arrested during the 2020 protests are still in prison and new arrests are taking place almost every day. The political opposition inside the country has been effectively silenced, with most of its leaders imprisoned or driven into exile. It’s clear that Lukashenko’s authoritarian regime is determined to hold onto power at all costs.

Is there any question of the outcome being at stake?

Unfortunately, no. Elections in Belarus are so heavily manipulated that they’re little more than formalities to legitimise Lukashenko’s rule. We’ve been monitoring and campaigning for free and fair elections for years, along with groups like the Belarusian Helsinki Committee, but at the moment those conditions simply don’t exist.

The opposition has been completely sidelined. Many of its leaders are either in prison or have fled the country. Alternative candidates aren’t allowed to run, and any form of opposition campaigning is banned. The state-controlled media is completely one-sided, constantly pushing the narrative that Lukashenko has overwhelming public support, while silencing anyone who disagrees.

With no transparency or accountability, the outcome is already decided. This election is just another tool to keep Lukashenko in power for as long as possible.

What are the likely post-election scenarios?

After the election, things are likely to stay much the same. The regime is likely to continue its authoritarian rule and we have little hope for immediate change.

For Belarus to move towards democracy, the first step would be to release all political prisoners. Almost 1,300 people, including opposition leaders, activists and journalists, are currently behind bars on politically motivated charges. They should be allowed to participate in the political process.

The government must also end its campaign of repression. Widespread arrests, searches, interrogations and torture have created an atmosphere of fear that stifles any form of dissent. Reform of the police and judicial systems is essential to address this.

Belarus also needs genuinely free and fair elections. This means opposition candidates should be able to campaign openly and people must be able to vote without fear of retribution.

Finally, accountability for human rights abuses is crucial. Those responsible for torture, unlawful detention and silencing dissent must be held accountable. This is vital for restoring trust and building a democratic future.

How can the international community support democratic transition?

The international community has been a lifeline for the Belarusian people, and this support must continue. Financial aid and solidarity from democratic states, particularly the European Union and the USA, have enabled many activists, including myself and others who’ve had to leave Belarus for our own safety, to continue our work.

Public condemnation of the regime’s actions also helps. Even if it doesn’t lead to immediate change, it shows Belarusian people and the government that the world is watching and reminds the authorities that actions have consequences.

It is also important to seek accountability through international legal mechanisms. Since we can’t hold perpetrators to account inside Belarus, it is essential to seek justice outside the country. States such as Lithuania and Poland have already begun investigating crimes committed by the regime and have referred cases to the International Criminal Court. These efforts show that there is a global determination to hold those in power to account.

The crisis in Belarus must be recognised as an international issue and kept on the international agenda. The United Nations has described the regime’s actions as crimes against humanity, making it clear this is not just a domestic matter: it’s an international crisis that demands international attention and action.

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SEE ALSO
Belarus: ‘Despite the repression, we haven’t halted our work for a single day’ Interview with Marina Kostylianchenko 16.Dec.2023
Belarus: ‘There is a pro-democracy civil society that opposes the war and advocates for democratic reforms’ Interview with Anastasiya Vasilchuk 22.Mar.2023
Belarus: a prison state in Europe CIVICUS Lens 15.Mar.2023

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