Who’s responsible for the below replacement fertility that’s resulting in demographic decline and population ageing in countries around the world? Credit: Shutterstock.
By Joseph Chamie
PORTLAND, USA, Oct 30 2024 – Alarmists, mainly politicians, economists and wealthy elites, are announcing that the world’s demographic sky is collapsing. The world’s demographic sky is not collapsing but simply changing.
And that demographic change should not be blamed on the emancipation of women. It’s also somewhat perplexing that the alarmists don’t give consideration to the failure of men as a major contributing factor to the world’s changing demographic sky.
In general, men have neither recognized nor adjusted to the major economic, social and cultural changes that have taken place at the workplace, the community and the household as well as in their personal relationships with women.
Ranging from a global low of 0.72 births per woman in South Korea, many developed and developing countries around the world had a fertility rate in the past year well below the replacement level, including Brazil, China, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States
The exceptional high rates of global population growth and relatively young age structures that were experienced during the second half of the 20th century are over.
It is also indeed the case that many countries worldwide are expected to experience population decline and population ageing over the coming decades.
In the early 1960s world population grew at a record high of 2.3 percent, global fertility rate was five births per woman and the world’s median age was 21years. Today the world’s population growth rate is estimated at 0.9 percent, the global fertility rate is slightly more than two births per woman and the world’s median age is 31 years.
By mid-century the growth rate of the world’s population is expected to decline to 0.4 percent. At that time the global fertility rate is expected to have fallen to two births per woman with the world’s median age increasing to 37 years.
The declines in demographic growth rates accompanied by population ageing are largely the result of the reproductive decisions made by millions of women and men concerning the number and spacing of births. Those decisions are based largely on their personal desires and social and economic circumstances.
The world’s population is now slightly more than 8 billion, having quadrupled during the past hundred years. Nearly all demographers appreciate that world population will likely peak during the current century
According to the United Nations projections (medium variant), the world’s population is projected to continue growing, likely peaking at 10.3 billion in about sixty years. After reaching that level, the world’s population is expected to decline slowly to 10.2 billion by the close of the 21st century (Figure 1).
Source: United Nations.
Despite the expected additional two billion people on the planet, alarmists fret by noting that for the first time since the Black Death in the 14th century, the planet’s human population is going to decline. They are distressed and declare that many countries are facing the dire prospects of demographic collapse.
The expected declines in the population size of many countries over the coming decades is largely the result of fewer births than deaths. And the reason for the fewer births is below replacement fertility levels, i.e., less than about 2.1 births per woman.
More than one hundred countries, representing two-thirds of world’s population, are experiencing below replacement fertility (Figure 2).
Source: United Nations.
In 2023, the populations of some 80 countries and areas experienced a fertility rate below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. Ranging from a global low of 0.72 births per woman in South Korea, many developed and developing countries around the world had a fertility rate in the past year well below the replacement level, including Brazil, China, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States (Figure 3).
Source: National surveys and United Nations.
In the absence of compensating immigration, most of the countries with below replacement level fertility are facing the prospects of demographic decline accompanied by considerable population aging. Among the countries facing population decline in the coming years are China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, South Korea and Ukraine (Figure 4)
Source: United Nations.
Who’s responsible for the below replacement fertility that’s resulting in demographic decline and population ageing in countries around the world?
According to many alarmists, the emancipation of women is responsible because emancipated women are simply choosing not to have enough births to ensure their country’s population growth.
In large part due to the ominous concerns being raised about population decline, many government officials and wealthy elites are urging and cajoling their female citizens to have more babies. Among their various pro-natalist policies, governments are offering cash incentives, child allowances, paid parental leave, flexible work schedules, affordable childcare and financial assistance to families.
For example, China recently announced its attempt to create a “birth-friendly society”. The government has announced various incentives, including establishing a childbirth subsidy system and various tax cuts for parents. In addition, families with multiple children would be given privileges in home purchasing, housing loans and larger homes.
Despite decades of pro-natalist efforts, governments worldwide have not been able to raise their fertility rates back to the replacement level. Some demographers have concluded that once a country’s fertility rate falls well below the replacement level, i.e., under 1.8 births per woman, it’s very difficult to raise it by any significant amount despite government policies, programs and spending.
The major and often sole focus of concern of alarmists is the national economy, i.e., growth of the GNP, production, consumption, labor force size, etc. Rarely do those alarmists ring warning bells or express serious anxieties about vital non-economic matters, such as climate change, environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, gender equality and human rights.
Rather than attempting to return to the population growth rates and age structures of the recent past, government officials, their economic advisors and wealthy elites need to recognize and adjust to the changing 21st century demographic sky. By doing so, they will be better prepared to plan and adapt to the wide-ranging social, economic, environmental and climatic benefits and opportunities as well as the many challenges that lie ahead.
Again, to be clear, the world’s demographic sky is not collapsing. It is simply changing to low or negative rates of national population growth accompanied by older age structures. And also instead of blaming the emancipation of women, the alarmists should seriously consider the failure of men as an important factor contributing to the world’s changing demographic sky.
Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.