DUBLIN, Irlanda, Sept. 28, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — O uso da IA na aviao vai alm dos chatbots de apoio ao cliente e das ferramentas de comparao de preos para viajantes. Embora esses aplicativos definitivamente permaneam e se tornem onipresentes, a verdadeira interrupo vir da otimizao das reas “difceis” da aviao "" desde o gerenciamento de receitas at avaliao da probabilidade de uma greve. O presidente do Avia Solutions Group, Gediminas Ziemelis, compartilha suas previses sobre as reas onde a IA na aviao far uma enorme diferena.

1. Desbloqueando preos verdadeiramente dinmicos. No negcio das companhias areas, o gerenciamento de receitas nunca foi um jogo fcil, mas os riscos so ainda maiores no mundo ps–COVID. De acordo com a IATA, a margem de lucro mdia por passageiro hoje realmente mnima "" apenas 2,25 dlares, em comparao com nmeros de dois dgitos em 2019. A IA pode ajudar a melhorar a difcil tarefa de analisar dados histricos e calcular o preo certo, tendo em conta o localizao do cliente e uma infinidade de outros fatores. Embora as grandes companhias areas provavelmente optem por construir as suas prprias solues internamente, j existe um nmero crescente de companhias areas em parceria com empresas como a AirGain "" uma soluo preditiva baseada em IA, com um data lake que cobre 6 bilhes de pontos de preos.
2. Manter a sade do motor. A manuteno preditiva tem sido parte integrante do MRO j h algum tempo, com sensores que ajudam as companhias areas a determinar quando e o que precisa ser consertado ou substitudo. A Inteligncia Artificial pode usar dados de sensores em tempo real e padres histricos preditivos de falhas para reduzir o tempo de inatividade e os custos gerais de manuteno. Um estudo recente conduzido pelo Centro de Desenvolvimento Avanado de Sistemas de Aviao (CAASD) da Universidade de Maryland descobriu que a manuteno preditiva pode reduzir os custos operacionais das aeronaves em at 20%. A IA j est revolucionando esse campo. Por exemplo, a Lufthansa Technik nivelou a manuteno de aeronaves com seus sistemas de manuteno preditiva orientados por IA. Sua soluo Condition Analytics emprega algoritmos de aprendizado de mquina para analisar dados de sensores de vrios componentes da aeronave, prevendo necessidades de manuteno com notvel preciso. A criao dos chamados “gmeos digitais” "" rplicas virtuais perfeitas que mudam seus parmetros de acordo com o desgaste do componente fsico "" os tcnicos de MRO usam gmeos digitais para manuteno preditiva e para detectar anomalias, comparando dados de sensores do mundo real com os dados gerados por gmeos digitais.
3. Planejar a rota mais eficiente.De acordo com a IATA, as companhias areas gastaro US$ 215 bilhes este ano, representando cerca de 28% das despesas operacionais, que podem ser reduzidas com um planejamento de rotas mais eficiente. Numerosas variveis (incluindo congestionamento do trfego areo, mudanas rpidas nos padres climticos e flutuaes nos custos de combustvel) tornam o planejamento de rotas uma tarefa complexa e exigente, que pode melhorar ou prejudicar os resultados financeiros de uma transportadora, dependendo da eficincia com que executado. As plataformas habilitadas para IA podem acelerar a tomada de decises dos operadores, ajudando–os a aproveitar no apenas o poder dos dados histricos, mas tambm dos mecanismos preditivos que, juntos, geram uma imagem clara e acionvel. Um exemplo dessa plataforma a Flyways, que utiliza dados de voos programados e ativos para mapear rotas de voo que passam por reas menos congestionadas e contornam reas com condies climticas adversas. A soluo j foi testada pela Alaska Airlines, economizando 480.000 gales de combustvel e resultando em 4.600 toneladas a menos em emisses de carbono em um perodo de seis meses. Os resultados desta colaborao entre operadores de IA se refletem no apenas na reduo de custos, mas tambm na ajuda s empresas para se tornarem mais sustentveis. Quando tais solues se tornarem comuns no apenas entre as companhias areas, mas tambm entre as autoridades de voo em todo o mundo, vamos olhar para trs hoje e nos surpreender com a ineficincia de todos ns ao planejar rotas.
4. Prevendo greves. Embora as greves na aviao geralmente ganhem as manchetes por causa da interrupo que causam aos planos dos viajantes (especialmente em torno de grandes feriados), o fato de as companhias areas poderem perder dezenas, seno centenas de milhes por greve, muitas vezes esquecido. Em 2022, por exemplo, a SAS perdeu 145 milhes de dlares numa greve de pilotos de 15 dias. Como a IA pode analisar no apenas dados tcnicos, mas tambm sociolgicos, um modelo poderia ser concebido para ajudar as companhias areas a prever uma greve potencial e a estar melhor preparadas para eventuais negociaes. Modelos como este, que podem prever a probabilidade de funcionrios individuais deixarem seus empregos, j foram desenvolvidos pela IBM, produzindo 95% de preciso.
5. Melhorar os fluxos de trabalho durante o voo. A IA pode servir como auxiliar no apenas para a equipe em terra, mas tambm para a tripulao na cabine. No se trata apenas de facilitar as tarefas rotineiras "" uma ferramenta devidamente treinada pode oferecer aconselhamento especializado sobre o gerenciamento da aeronave e a tomada de decises rpidas e informadas, especialmente quando h presso e decises rpidas so vitais. As rodas j esto em movimento para dar vida a esta viso, com aplicaes de IA de Nvel 1 em fase de certificao, graas s diretrizes de Confiabilidade de Sistemas Baseados em Aprendizado de Mquina da EASA, estabelecidas em abril de 2022.
6. Ajudar pilotos e tripulantes a manter sua sade mental. Poderia um modelo de IA ter evitado o desastre suicida do piloto do voo 9525 da Germanwings, que levou morte de 150 pessoas? Embora esta seja uma rea de muita especulao, exames regulares especialmente concebidos para a tripulao podem ajudar a prever a probabilidade de problemas mentais exacerbados pela exposio a eventos estressantes, como perturbaes do ritmo circadiano, casos de turbulncia e emergncias a bordo. Outra aplicao promissora, que j est sendo testada pela startup britnica Blueskeye AI, o uso de tecnologia de deteco facial para identificar fadiga em pilotos. Hoje, a fadiga calculada com base no nmero de horas que um piloto voou, mas no futuro esta mtrica ser altamente individualizada.
7. Prever a probabilidade de Diretrizes de Aeronavegabilidade. Uma Diretriz de Aeronavegabilidade (DA) para parte da estrutura ou do motor capaz de aterrar parcela considervel da frota de qualquer companhia area, especialmente se no estiver diversificada em diferentes modelos. Conhecer a probabilidade de tal risco pode ajudar enormemente em diferentes fases do gerenciamento da frota "" desde a formao da frota at manuteno. Tal como o software de gerenciamento de risco baseado em IA em bancos e instituies financeiras, uma soluo semelhante poderia ser implementada para calcular e mitigar os riscos de DA.
8. Melhorar os processos internos de gesto da qualidade. Embora nenhuma avaria rivalize com a conta de US$ 20 bilhes que a Boeing teve que pagar por causa dos acidentes e subsequente aterramento do 737 MAX, problemas de controle de qualidade ainda podem levar empresas falncia. Embora os padres de garantia de qualidade na aviao j sejam mais elevados do que em qualquer outro setor devido regulamentao rigorosa de tudo que se relacione segurana e proteo, a IA pode impulsionar protocolos internos de garantia de qualidade nos domnios da fabricao na aviao e da gesto das companhias areas. Na fase de fabricao, um sofisticado sistema de viso computacional aprimorado por verificaes manuais pode identificar melhor as falhas nos componentes. Para as companhias areas, um Sistema de Gerenciamento de Segurana (SMS) aprimorado por IA pode levar em conta grandes quantidades de dados de vrias fontes, incluindo desempenho, padres meteorolgicos e informaes de manuteno.
9. Encontrar a melhor soluo logstica para situaes AOG. Embora cada situao de aeronave em terra (AOG) seja nica, ela pode custar companhia area algo entre US$ 10.000 e US$ 150.000, sem mencionar os danos reputao. Descobrir o quebra–cabea de encontrar a pea de reposio necessria e entreg–la em horas, e no em dias, pode ser complicado, especialmente se a situao do AOG acontecer longe dos principais centros. Uma soluo de IA poderia ajudar a empresa a localizar e enviar rapidamente a pea para a aeronave. Ao mesmo tempo, uma soluo de manuteno preditiva pode ajudar a companhia a se preparar para potenciais eventos AOG e garantir que haja sempre peas crticas suficientes em estoque.
10. Determinao do preo do seguro. No mundo ps–11/9, os compradores de seguros de aviao em todo o mundo ainda esto enfrentando preos crescentes e disponibilidade reduzida quando se trata de cobertura de risco de guerra. Um modelo de IA pode auxliliar as companhias areas a calcular os riscos que enfrentam com mais preciso, ajudando–as a compreender a sua exposio ao "risco de guerra" quando tomam decises relacionadas com seguros.

Conhea Gediminas Ziemelis

Gediminas Ziemelis (nascido em 4 de abril de 1977) um talentoso empresrio lituano, consultor de negcios e fundador e atual presidente do conselho do Avia Solutions Group, o maior fornecedor global de ACMI (Aeronave, Tripulao, Manuteno e Seguros), operando um frota de 196 aeronaves. Ele foi escolhido duas vezes entre os 40 jovens lderes mais talentosos do setor pela Aviation Week & Space Technology.

Gediminas conhecido por sua mentalidade cosmopolita e habilidades excepcionais de gesto, que contriburam para seu sucesso em vrias reas de negcios. Ao longo de seus 26 anos de carreira, Gediminas fundou mais de 100 start–ups, 50% delas ainda em operao, liderou empresas em 4 processos bem–sucedidos de IPO/SPO e levantou mais de 800 milhes de euros em mercados pblicos globais de capital e ttulos.

Em dezembro de 2022, Gediminas Ziemelis foi considerado o lituano mais rico pela TOP Magazine, com ativos estimados no valor de 1,68 bilho de euros.

Gediminas o maior doador do Rimantas Kaukenas Support Group, um fundo de caridade e apoio que oferece ajuda a crianas com doenas oncolgicas e s suas famlias. Ele tambm o maior acionista da principal equipe de basquete, a Wolves.

GLOBENEWSWIRE (Distribution ID 1000841676)

DUBLIN, Ireland, Sept. 27, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The use of AI in aviation goes beyond customer support chatbots and price comparison tools for travelers. While these applications will definitely stay and become ubiquitous, the real disruption will come from optimizing the "hard" areas of aviation "" from revenue management to evaluating the likelihood of a strike. Chairman of Avia Solutions Group Gediminas Ziemelis shares his predictions regarding the areas where AI in aviation will make a massive difference.

1. Unlocking true dynamic pricing. In the airline business, revenue management has never been an easy game, but the stakes are even higher in the post–COVID world. According to IATA, the average profit margin per passenger today is truly razor–thin "" just $2.25, compared to double–digit numbers in 2019. AI can help improve the tough task of analyzing historical data and calculating the right price, taking into account the client's location and a myriad of other factors. While larger airlines will probably opt for building their own solutions in–house, there's already a growing number of carriers partnering with the likes of AirGain "" an AI–driven predictive solution with a data lake covering 6 billion price points.
2. Maintaining engine health. Predictive maintenance has been an integral part of MRO for quite some time now, with sensors helping airlines determine when and what needs to be fixed or replaced. Artificial Intelligence can use both real–time sensor data and predictive historical fault patterns to reduce downtime and overall costs of maintenance. A recent study conducted by the University of Maryland's Center for Advanced Aviation System Development (CAASD) found that predictive maintenance can reduce aircraft operational costs by up to 20%. AI is already disrupting this field. For instance, Lufthansa Technik has leveled up aircraft upkeep with its AI–driven predictive maintenance systems. Their Condition Analytics solution employs machine learning algorithms to analyze sensor data from various aircraft components, predicting maintenance needs with remarkable precision. The creation of so–called "digital twins" "" perfect virtual replicas that change their parameters according to the physical component's wear "" MRO technicians use digital twins for predictive maintenance and to detect anomalies by comparing real–world sensor data to the data generated by digital twins.
3. Planning the most efficient route. According to IATA, airlines will spend $215 billion this year, accounting for around 28% of operating expenses, which can be reduced with more efficient route planning. Numerous variables (including air traffic congestion, quickly changing weather patterns, and fluctuating fuel costs) make route planning a complex and demanding task, which can either improve or damage a carrier's bottom line, depending on how efficiently it is performed. AI–enabled platforms can accelerate decision–making for operators, helping them harness not just the power of historical data but also of predictive mechanisms that, together, generate an actionable and clear picture. One example of such a platform is Flyways, which uses scheduled and active flight data to map out flight routes that go through less–congested areas and bypass areas with adverse weather conditions. The solution has already been tested out by Alaska Airlines, saving the company 480,000 gallons of fuel and resulting in 4,600 fewer tons in carbon emissions over a six–month period. The results of such AI–operator collaboration are reflected not only in cost savings but also in helping businesses become more sustainable. Once such solutions become commonplace not just among airlines but also flight authorities around the world, we will look back at today and be surprised at how inefficient all of us were when planning routes.
4. Predicting strikes. While strikes in aviation usually make headlines because of the disruption they have on travelers' plans (especially around major holidays), the fact that airlines can lose tens if not hundreds of millions per strike is often overlooked. In 2022, for instance, SAS lost $145 million over a 15–day pilot strike. As AI can analyze not just technical but also sociological data, a model could be designed to help airlines predict a potential strike and be better prepared for potential negotiations. Models like this that can predict the probability of individual employees leaving their jobs have already been developed by IBM, producing 95% accuracy.
5. Improving workflows in–flight. An AI can serve as a helper not just to the staff on the ground but also to the cabin crew. It is not just about making routine tasks easier "" a properly trained tool can offer expert advice on managing the aircraft and making quick, informed decisions, especially when the pressure is on and quick decisions are vital. The wheels are already in motion to bring this vision to life, with Level 1 AI applications nearing certification, thanks to EASA's Trustworthiness of Machine Learning based Systems guidelines established in April 2022.
6. Helping pilots and crew maintain their mental health. Could an AI model have prevented the suicide–by–pilot disaster of Germanwings Flight 9525 that led to the death of 150 people? While this is an area of much speculation, specially designed regular staff screenings can help predict the likelihood of mental issues exacerbated by exposure to stressful events, such as circadian rhythm disruptions, instances of turbulence, and onboard emergencies. Another promising application, which is already being tested by the UK startup Blueskeye AI, is the use of facial sensing technology to identify fatigue in pilots. Today, fatigue is calculated based on the number of hours a pilot has flown, but in the future, this metric will be highly individualized.
7. Predicting the probability of Airworthiness Directives. An Airworthiness Directive (AD) for either a part of the frame or the engine can ground a sizeable share of an airline's fleet, especially one that is not diversified across different models. Knowing the likelihood of such a risk can massively help at different stages of fleet management "" from fleet formation to maintenance. Much like AI–driven risk management software in banks and financial institutions, a similar solution could be deployed to calculate and mitigate AD risks.
8. Improving in–house quality management processes. While no malfunction will ever rival the $20 billion bill that Boeing had to foot because of the crashes and subsequent grounding of the 737 MAX, a QA issue can still bankrupt a company. While quality assurance standards in aviation are already higher than in any other industry due to strict regulation of everything related to safety and security, AI can boost in–house quality assurance protocols within the realms of aviation manufacturing and airline management. At the manufacturing stage, a sophisticated computer vision system enhanced by manual checks can better pinpoint flaws in components. For airlines, an AI–enhanced Safety Management System (SMS) can take into account vast amounts of data from various sources, including performance, weather partners and maintenance information.
9. Finding the best logistics solution for AOG situations. While every aircraft on ground (AOG) situation is unique, it can cost the airline anything from $10,000 to $150,000, not to mention reputational damage. Figuring out the puzzle of both finding the spare part needed and delivering it in hours, and not days, can be tricky, especially if the AOG situation happens far away from major hubs. An AI solution could help the company quickly locate and ship the part to the aircraft. At the same time, a predictive maintenance solution can help prepare for potential AOG events and make sure that there are always enough critical parts in stock.
10. Determining insurance pricing. In the post–9/11 world, aviation insurance buyers globally are still encountering escalating prices and diminished availability when it comes to war risk coverage. An AI model can help airlines calculate the risks they are facing more precisely, helping them to understand their "war risk" exposure when they are making insurance–related decisions.

About Gediminas Ziemelis

Gediminas Ziemelis (born April 4, 1977) is an accomplished Lithuanian entrepreneur, business consultant, and the founder and current Chairman of the Board of Avia Solutions Group, the largest global ACMI (Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, and Insurance) provider, operating a fleet of 196 aircraft. He was selected twice among the top 40 most talented young industry leaders by Aviation Week & Space Technology.

Gediminas is known for his cosmopolitan mindset and exceptional management skills, which have contributed to his success in various business fields. Over his 26–year–long career, Gediminas has founded more than 100 start–ups, 50% of which are still in operation, led companies through 4 successful IPO/SPO processes, and raised over 800 million euros in global public capital and bond markets.

In December 2022, Gediminas Ziemelis was listed as the richest Lithuanian by TOP Magazine, with estimated assets worth 1.68 billion euros.

Gediminas is the largest donator of Rimantas Kaukenas Support Group, a charity and support fund, that provides help to children with oncological diseases and their families. He is also the biggest shareholder in the leading basketball club Wolves.

GLOBENEWSWIRE (Distribution ID 1000841364)

DUBLIN, Irlande, 30 juill. 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Les annes de pandmie ont gnr des revenus records grce au fret arien. Avec une offre limite en raison de l'immobilisation des avions de transport de passagers et une demande en hausse grce l'essor du commerce lectronique, les prix par kilogramme de fret ont grimp en flche. Selon les chiffres du TAC Yields publi par le Trade and Transport Group, en 2019 le fret arien depuis Hong Kong vers l'Amrique du Nord cotait 3,80 $/kg tandis que le prix depuis l'Europe vers l'Amrique du Nord tait de 2,10 $/kg. En 2022, ces mmes services cotaient respectivement 9,00 $/kg et 4,50 $/kg.

Sans surprise, cette situation a transform la position des fournisseurs de fret arien. Les revenus du fret ont plus que doubl, passant de 100 milliards de dollars en 2019 210 milliards de dollars en 2021 (selon les chiffres de l'IATA), tandis que les revenus du transport de passagers ont chut de 607 milliards de dollars par an pour tomber 239 milliards de dollars. Le chiffre d'affaires annuel de Cargolux est pass de 2,2 milliards de dollars 5,1 milliards de dollars au cours de la pandmie, et Silkway a plus que doubl son chiffre d'affaires et a vu sa marge passer de –10 % +30 %. Ces normes gains, ainsi que le potentiel long terme du commerce lectronique (qui a conduit Airbus et Boeing mettre des prvisions optimistes pour la croissance du fret arien), ont conduit de nombreuses compagnies ariennes se concentrer davantage sur le fret.

Cependant, l'augmentation de la capacit en soute a entran une nouvelle chute brutale des prix du fret. L'IATA prvoit que le rendement du fret en glissement annuel chutera de 28,6 % cette anne. Cela signifie que le fret arien, un secteur notoirement cyclique, entre nouveau dans une priode de turbulences. C'est dans ce contexte que les compagnies ariennes dcident d'acheter ou non de nouveaux avions de fret.

Avions de fret neufs vs. conversions d'avions de transport de passagers en avions de fret

Les compagnies ariennes et les fournisseurs de fret arien poursuivent des stratgies diffrentes lorsqu'il s'agit de renforcer leurs flottes de fret. Selon le dernier rapport de KPMG, l'anne dernire, 35 commandes ont t passes pour de nouveaux avions 777–200F, 33 pour de nouveaux 777–8F, tandis que 20 fournisseurs ont achet de nouveaux A350F. Ces commandes ont t passes la fois par des fournisseurs de fret arien ddis (Cargolux, Silkway West, DHL, FedEx) et par des compagnies ariennes (Lufthansa Cargo, Qatar, Air Canada, China Airlines, EVA, Air France, Etihad, SIA et Western Global). Pendant ce temps, les conversions annuelles d'avions de transport de passagers en avions de fret (P–to–F) ont atteint des sommets historiques avec un volume estim 180 par an d'ici 2025, pour ensuite se stabiliser environ 160 avions par an. Cette volution est mettre en regard des 70 units par an avant la pandmie de COVID–19.

Un certain nombre de facteurs influent sur le choix d'acheter des avions de transport de fret neufs ou des avions de fret issus de conversions P–to–F. Naturellement, le cot reprsente un facteur majeur dont le calcul prend en compte des variables telles que le nombre total de commandes, la consommation de carburant et la maintenance, ainsi que les cots de production initiaux. Les dlais de production constituent un autre facteur cl, tout comme le volume de fret et la flexibilit.

Facteur 1 : Cots de location

Il existe une diffrence considrable entre les cots de base des avions de fret neufs et ceux des avions de fret issus d'une conversion. Le prix initial d'un tout nouveau 777–200F ou A350F est d'environ 170 185 millions de dollars, soit un taux de location mensuel compris entre 1,2 et 1,3 million de dollars. En regardant le carnet de commandes des compagnies ariennes qui ont effectu des achats l'anne dernire, la majorit de celles–ci ont un nombre important de ces types d'avions dans leur flotte, en particulier les transporteurs mixtes. Dans ces cas, il est fort probable que le cot d'achat rel ait t bien infrieur la fourchette de 170 185 millions de dollars. Les conomies d'chelle positives seront galement un facteur de maintien des cots un niveau minimum pour ces compagnies ariennes. Nanmoins, malgr ces conomies, elles continueront d'envisager des taux de location mensuels de 1 million de dollars.

En revanche, la location d'un 777–300 issu d'une conversion P–to–F cotera 0,6 million de dollars par mois, soit environ 65 millions de dollars pour l'achat ferme. Cet avion est susceptible de bien soutenir la comparaison avec ses rivaux de production, mais une fraction du cot.

Facteur 2 : MRO et cots d'exploitation

Les compagnies ariennes raliseront des conomies sur les P–to–F en matire de MRO. Avec l'accs au march de l'occasion pour les pices, l'entretien de ces avions sera considrablement moins coteux que le maintien en service d'avions neufs.

Naturellement, outre les conomies de cots, l'accs aux pices d'occasion peut galement acclrer et simplifier le processus de maintenance pour les compagnies ariennes.

La consommation de carburant est un autre facteur prendre en considration. Historiquement, nous avons constat des amliorations significatives en matire de consommation de carburant lorsque des avions neufs sont mis en service. Lorsque le 777F a t introduit en remplacement du 747–400F, sa consommation de carburant de 6 800 kg/h reprsentait une amlioration considrable par rapport aux 10 230 kg/h consomms par le 747–400F. Cependant, avec les nouveaux 777X et A350, il est peu probable que des amliorations de la consommation de carburant correspondent la rduction de 30 % observe en passant du 747–400F au 777F. Une volution de l'ordre de 10 % 15 % reprsente le maximum auquel nous pouvons raisonnablement nous attendre.

Dans l'ensemble, bien qu'une amlioration de la consommation de carburant et (dans certains cas) des conomies d'chelle puissent attnuer le coup financier de l'achat d'un avion de fret neuf, en termes de cots, les avions issus d'une conversion P–to–F reprsentent une option beaucoup plus attrayante.

Facteur 3 : Volume de livraison et flexibilit

Les nouveaux avions de transport de fret peuvent potentiellement offrir des avantages en termes de capacit de livraison et de flexibilit. Le chargement du nez en particulier offre un avantage considrable. Il permet en effet aux aronefs de livrer des marchandises surdimensionnes telles que de gros gnrateurs, des moteurs, des camions et des technologies spcialises. Fondamentalement, cette cargaison hors gabarit est lucrative, car elle offre une rentabilit plus leve que les livraisons de palettes de taille normale.

Cependant, les nouveaux avions de fret en cours de production tels que le 777X et l'A350F ne proposent pas de chargement par le nez. Cela uniformise les rgles du jeu quant aux avantages lis un avion de fret ddi par rapport un avion de fret issu d'une conversion, car les deux sont dsormais limits un fret capable de passer par leurs portes latrales.

Comment les avions issus d'une conversion s'en sortent–ils en termes de volume, de coefficient de remplissage et de charge utile brute ? Considrons le 777–300ERCF par rapport au 777F (qui reprsente actuellement la moiti de la grande flotte mondiale d'avions de fret) en utilisant les donnes issues d'un comparatif effectu en 2022 par Aircraft Commerce.

Alors que le 777F offre une charge utile globale plus importante de 106,6 tonnes mtriques, en termes de volume, le 777–300ERCF surpasse confortablement le 777F. Le 777–300ERCF offre prs de 6 000 pieds cubes de plus en termes de volume total que le 777F (28 739 pieds cubes contre 22 971). Le revenu par charge utile est galement considrablement plus lev. 6,5 livres, il est de 186 804 pieds cubes, et 7,5 livres, il est de 190 900 pieds cubes, ce qui est comparer aux 149 312 pieds cubes et aux 172 283 pieds cubes du 777F respectivement. Une remarque importante s'impose nanmoins propos de ce comparatif : c'est le volume, et non la charge utile brute, qui compte le plus dans les oprations express de commerce lectronique, lesquelles sont susceptibles d'tre un important moteur de croissance l'avenir. Dans ce domaine, le 777–300ERCF offre un net avantage.

Eviter le pige des achats d'avions de fret neufs

Airbus estime que 1 040 avions de fret supplmentaires devront tre ajouts la flotte mondiale de fret d'ici 2041 – les prvisions de Boeing sont encore plus confiantes. L'achat d'avions de fret neufs dans le but de rpondre ce besoin comporte cependant des risques importants pour les compagnies ariennes. Les prix du fret ayant fortement baiss, l'investissement CAPEX dans un A350 ou 777F neuf reprsente un investissement financier massif un moment o les prix chutent rapidement. Le fait d'investir massivement dans un avion de fret neuf 185 millions de dollars pice aurait pu avoir du sens en 2021 lorsque les prix du fret arien taient des niveaux records. Cependant, en 2023, cette dmarche ne reprsente plus une politique prudente.

De plus, il y a peu gagner en termes de performance et de capacit en achetant un avion de fret neuf. Les avions de fret issus de conversions P–to–F sont capables de se mesurer aux avions de fret neufs en termes de volume, et ils prsentent des avantages notables en matire de maintenance et de production.

En fin de compte, les avions de fret issus de conversions reprsentent un risque financier beaucoup plus faible tout en permettant ainsi aux compagnies ariennes d'augmenter durablement leur capacit de fret arien. C'est pourquoi nous constatons une croissance importante des avions issus de conversions P–to–F, tandis que les livraisons d'avions de fret neufs stagnent. juste titre, de nombreuses compagnies ariennes ne sont pas disposes assumer le risque financier d'un avion neuf alors que les prix chutent, et y voient peu d'avantages par rapport aux avions de passagers rhabilits.

propos de Gediminas Ziemelis

Gediminas Ziemelis (n le 4 avril 1977) est un entrepreneur lituanien accompli, consultant en affaires, fondateur et actuel prsident du conseil d'administration d'Avia Solutions Group, l'un des plus grands fournisseurs mondiaux d'ACMI (services d'aronefs, d'quipage, de maintenance et d'assurance), qui exploite une flotte de 180 aronefs. Il a t slectionn deux fois parmi les 40 jeunes leaders les plus talentueux de l'industrie par Aviation Week & Space Technology.

Gediminas est connu pour son esprit cosmopolite et ses comptences exceptionnelles en matire de gestion, qui ont contribu son succs dans divers domaines d'activit. Au cours de ses 26 ans de carrire, Gediminas a fond plus de 100 start–ups, dont 50 % sont toujours en activit, il a dirig des entreprises travers quatre processus russis d'introduction en bourse/offre publique sur le march secondaire, et a lev plus de 800 millions d'euros sur les marchs publics mondiaux des capitaux et des obligations.

En dcembre 2022, Gediminas Ziemelis a t identifi par TOP Magazine comme le Lituanien le plus riche dont les actifs sont estims 1,68 milliard d'euros.

Gediminas est le plus grand donateur de Rimantas Kaukenas Support Group, un fonds de bienfaisance et de soutien qui apporte de l'aide aux enfants atteints de maladies oncologiques et leurs familles. Il est galement le principal actionnaire du premier club de basket–ball, les Wolves.

GLOBENEWSWIRE (Distribution ID 1000832339)

DUBLIN, Irland, July 30, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Die Pandemiejahre haben Rekorde bei den Einnahmen aus der Luftfracht mit sich gebracht. Da das Angebot aufgrund des Flugverbots fr Passagierflugzeuge begrenzt war und die Nachfrage dank des boomenden elektronischen Handels stieg, sind die Preise pro kg Fracht stark gestiegen. Nach den Zahlen von TAC Yields von der Trade and Transport Group kostete Luftfracht von Hongkong nach Nordamerika im Jahr 2019 3,80 USD/kg, whrend der Preis von Europa nach Nordamerika bei 2,10 USD/kg lag. Im Jahr 2022 kosten dieselben Leistungen 9,00 USD/kg bzw. 4,50 USD/kg.

Es berrascht nicht, dass diese Situation die Position der Luftfrachtanbieter verndert hat. Die Frachteinnahmen haben sich von 100 Mrd. USD im Jahr 2019 auf 210 Mrd. USD im Jahr 2021 mehr als verdoppelt (dies sind die Zahlen der IATA), whrend die Passagiereinnahmen von 607 Mrd. USD jhrlich auf 239 Mrd. USD gesunken sind. Der Jahresumsatz von Cargolux stieg im Verlauf der Pandemie von 2,2 Mrd. USD auf 5,1 Mrd. USD, und Silkway konnte seinen Umsatz mehr als verdoppeln und seine Gewinnspanne von –10 % auf +30 % steigern. Diese enormen Zuwchse sowie das langfristige Potenzial des E–Commerce (das Airbus und Boeing zu optimistischen Prognosen fr das Wachstum der Luftfracht veranlasst hat) haben viele Fluggesellschaften dazu veranlasst, sich strker auf den Frachtbereich zu konzentrieren.

Die gestiegenen Frachtkapazitten haben jedoch dazu gefhrt, dass die Frachtpreise erneut stark gefallen sind. Die IATA prognostiziert, dass die Frachtrenditen in diesem Jahr im Vergleich zum Vorjahr um 28,6 % sinken werden. Das bedeutet, dass die Luftfracht, ein notorisch zyklischer Sektor, wieder einmal in eine Phase der Turbulenzen gert. Dies ist der Kontext, in dem Fluggesellschaften ber den Kauf neuer Frachtflugzeuge entscheiden.

Neue Frachtflugzeuge im Vergleich zu Umbauten von Passagier– in Frachtflugzeuge

Fluggesellschaften und Luftfrachtanbieter verfolgen unterschiedliche Strategien, wenn es darum geht, ihre Luftfrachtflotten aufzustocken. Laut dem jngsten Bericht von KPMG wurden im vergangenen Jahr 35 neue Flugzeuge des Typs 777–200F und 33 neue Flugzeuge des Typs 777–8F bestellt. 20 Anbieter kauften neue A350F. Diese Auftrge wurden sowohl von speziellen Luftfrachtanbietern (Cargolux, Silkway West, DHL, FedEx) als auch von Fluggesellschaften (Lufthansa Cargo, Katar, Air Canada, China Airlines, EVA, Air France, Etihad, SIA und Western Global) erteilt. In der Zwischenzeit haben die jhrlichen Umrstungen von Passagier– auf Frachtflugzeuge (P2F) einen historischen Hchststand erreicht. Schtzungen zufolge wird das Volumen bis 2025 einen Hchststand von 180 Flugzeugen pro Jahr erreichen und sich dann bei etwa 160 Flugzeugen pro Jahr einpendeln. Im Vergleich dazu waren es vor der COVID–19–Pandemie 70 Stck pro Jahr.

Eine Reihe von Faktoren beeinflusst die Entscheidung fr den Kauf neuer Frachtflugzeuge oder die P2F–Umrstung. Natrlich spielen die Kosten eine groe Rolle, wobei Variablen wie die Gesamtzahl der Auftrge, der Treibstoffverbrauch und die Wartung sowie die Produktionskosten bercksichtigt werden mssen. Die Produktionsvorlaufzeiten sind ein weiterer wichtiger Faktor, ebenso wie das Frachtvolumen und die Flexibilitt.

Faktor 1: Leasingkosten

Es gibt einen gewaltigen Unterschied zwischen den Basiskosten fr neue und umgerstete Frachtflugzeuge. Der Anschaffungspreis fr eine brandneue 777–200F oder A350F liegt bei etwa 170 bis 185 Mio. USD, was einer monatlichen Leasingrate von 1,2 bis 1,3 Mio. USD entspricht. Wenn man den Auftragsbestand der Fluggesellschaften betrachtet, die im letzten Jahr Kufe gettigt haben, ist festzustellen, dass die meisten dieser Fluggesellschaften eine betrchtliche Anzahl dieser Flugzeugtypen in ihrer Flotte haben, insbesondere die Fluggesellschaften, die sowohl im Passagier– als auch im Frachtverkehr ttig sind. In diesen Fllen ist es sehr wahrscheinlich, dass die tatschlichen Kaufkosten weit unter der Spanne von 170 bis 185 Mio. USD lagen. Positive Skaleneffekte werden auch ein Faktor sein, der die Kosten fr diese Fluggesellschaften niedrig hlt. Trotz dieser Einsparungen mssen sie immer noch mit monatlichen Leasingraten von 1 Mio. USD rechnen.

Im Gegensatz dazu kostet das Leasen einer 777–300 P2F–Umrstung 0,6 Mio. USD pro Monat oder rund 65 Mio. USD bei einem direkten Kauf. Dieses Flugzeug wird wahrscheinlich mit seinen Serienkonkurrenten mithalten knnen, jedoch zu einem Bruchteil der Kosten.

Faktor 2: Instandhaltungs– und Betriebskosten

Fluggesellschaften werden bei P2Fs Einsparungen erzielen, was die Instandhaltungs– und Betriebskosten anbelangt. Durch den Zugang zum Gebrauchtmarkt fr Ersatzteile wird die Wartung dieser Flugzeuge wesentlich gnstiger sein als der Betrieb neuer Flugzeuge.

Neben den Kosteneinsparungen kann der Zugang zu Gebrauchtteilen natrlich auch den Wartungsprozess fr Fluggesellschaften beschleunigen und vereinfachen.

Ein weiterer Aspekt ist der Treibstoffverbrauch. In der Vergangenheit haben wir bei der Inbetriebnahme neuer Flugzeuge erhebliche Verbesserungen beim Treibstoffverbrauch festgestellt. Als die 777F als Ersatz fr die 747–400F eingefhrt wurde, war ihr Treibstoffverbrauch von 6.800 kg/h eine enorme Verbesserung gegenber den 10.230 kg/h der 747–400F. Es ist jedoch unwahrscheinlich, dass wir mit der neuen 777X und dem A350 Verbesserungen beim Treibstoffverbrauch sehen werden, die mit der 30%igen Reduzierung von der 747–400F zur 777F vergleichbar sind. Eine Vernderung von 10 % bis 15 % ist das Hchste, was wir realistischerweise erwarten knnen.

Auch wenn ein besserer Treibstoffverbrauch und (in einigen Fllen) Grenvorteile den finanziellen Schlag des Kaufs eines neuen Frachtflugzeugs abmildern knnen, sind P2F–Umrstungen in Bezug auf die Kosten eine weitaus attraktivere Option.

Faktor 3: Liefervolumen und Flexibilitt

Neue Frachtflugzeuge haben das Potenzial, Vorteile in Bezug auf Lieferkapazitt und Flexibilitt zu bieten. Vor allem das Beladen ber den Bug bietet einen groen Vorteil. Es ermglicht Flugzeugen, berdimensionale Fracht wie groe Generatoren, Motoren, Lastwagen und Spezialtechnik zu transportieren. Entscheidend ist, dass diese bergroe Fracht lukrativ ist und eine hhere Rentabilitt als normale Palettenlieferungen bietet.

Neue Frachtflugzeuge wie die 777X und der A350F bieten jedoch keine Mglichkeit zur Beladung ber den Bug. Dies gleicht die Vorteile eines reinen Frachtflugzeugs gegenber einem umgebauten Frachtflugzeug aus, denn beide sind nun auf Fracht beschrnkt, die durch die Seitentren passt.

Wie schneiden die Umbauten in Bezug auf Volumen, Packdichte und Bruttonutzlast ab? Betrachten wir die 777–300ERCF im Vergleich zur 777F (die derzeit die Hlfte der weltweiten groen Frachtflugzeugflotte ausmacht) anhand von Daten aus einem Vergleich von Aircraft Commerce aus dem Jahr 2022.

Die 777F bietet zwar eine hhere Gesamtnutzlast von 106,6 Tonnen, in Bezug auf das Volumen bertrifft die 777–300ERCF die 777F jedoch deutlich. Die 777–300ERCF bietet fast 170 Kubikmeter mehr Gesamtvolumen als die 777F (ca. 815 Kubikmeter im Vergleich zu ca. 650 Kubikmeter). Auch der Umsatz pro Nutzlast ist deutlich hher. Bei ca. 3 kg sind es ca. 5.290 Kubikmeter und bei ca. 3,4 kg ca. 5.400 Kubikmeter. Im Vergleich dazu sind es bei der 777F ca. 4.230 Kubikmeter bzw. 4.880 Kubikmeter. Ein wichtiger Punkt bei diesem Vergleich ist, dass das Volumen und nicht die Bruttonutzlast im E–Commerce–Expressgeschft am wichtigsten ist, das in Zukunft wahrscheinlich ein wichtiger Wachstumsmotor sein wird. Und in diesem Bereich bietet die 777–300ERCF einen klaren Vorteil.

Vermeiden der Falle des Kaufs neuer Frachtflugzeuge

Airbus schtzt, dass die weltweite Frachtflotte bis zum Jahr 2041 um 1.040 zustzliche Frachtflugzeuge erweitert werden muss "" die Prognosen von Boeing sind sogar noch zuversichtlicher. Der Kauf neuer Frachtflugzeuge zur Deckung dieses Bedarfs birgt fr die Fluggesellschaften ein erhebliches Risiko. Da die Frachtpreise erheblich gesunken sind, stellt die Investitionskosten in einen neuen A350 oder eine 777F einen enormen finanziellen Aufwand dar, und das in einer Zeit, in der die Preise schnell fallen. Die Investition in ein neues Frachtflugzeug mit einem Preis von 185 Mio. USD war vielleicht im Jahr 2021 sinnvoll, als die Luftfrachtpreise auf einem Rekordniveau waren. Im Jahr 2023 ist diese Vorgehensweise jedoch nicht mehr klug.

Darber hinaus bringt die Anschaffung eines neuen Frachtflugzeugs nur einen geringen Gewinn an Leistung und Kapazitt. P2F–Umrstungen knnen in Bezug auf das Volumen mit neuen Serienfrachtflugzeugen mithalten und haben bemerkenswerte Vorteile in Bezug auf Wartung und Produktion.

Letztendlich stellen Umrstungen ein viel geringeres finanzielles Risiko dar und ermglichen es den Fluggesellschaften, ihre Luftfrachtkapazitt nachhaltig zu erhhen. Aus diesem Grund verzeichnen wir ein deutliches Wachstum bei der P2F–Umrstung, whrend die Auslieferung neuer Frachtflugzeuge stagniert. Zu Recht sind viele Fluggesellschaften nicht bereit, das finanzielle Risiko eines neuen Flugzeugs einzugehen, da die Preise fallen und sie im Vergleich zu berholten Passagierflugzeugen kaum Vorteile sehen.

ber Gediminas Ziemelis

Gediminas Ziemelis (geboren am 4. April 1977) ist ein erfolgreicher litauischer Unternehmer, Unternehmensberater und der Grnder und derzeitige Vorstandsvorsitzende der Avia Solutions Group, einem der weltweit grten ACMI–Anbieter (Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, and Insurance "" Flugzeuge, Besatzung, Wartung und Versicherung), der eine Flotte von 180 Flugzeugen betreibt. Er wurde zweimal von Aviation Week & Space Technology unter die Top 40 der talentiertesten jungen Branchenfhrer gewhlt.

Herr Ziemelis ist bekannt fr seine kosmopolitische Denkweise und seine auergewhnlichen Managementfhigkeiten, die zu seinem Erfolg in verschiedenen Geschftsbereichen beigetragen haben. In seiner 26–jhrigen Karriere hat Herr Ziemelis mehr als 100 Start–ups gegrndet, von denen 50 % noch immer in Betrieb sind, Unternehmen durch 4 erfolgreiche IPO/SPO–Prozesse gefhrt und mehr als 800 Mio. EUR an den globalen ffentlichen Kapital– und Anleihemrkten aufgenommen.

Im Dezember 2022 wurde Gediminas Ziemelis vom TOP Magazine mit einem geschtzten Vermgen von 1,68 Mrd. EUR als reichster Litauer gelistet.

Herr Ziemelis ist der grte Spender der Rimantas Kaukenas Support Group, einem Wohlttigkeits– und Untersttzungsfonds, der Kindern mit onkologischen Erkrankungen und ihren Familien Hilfe bietet. Er ist auch der grte Aktionr des fhrenden Basketballclubs der Wolves.

GLOBENEWSWIRE (Distribution ID 1000832339)

DUBLIN, Irlanda, July 30, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Os anos de pandemia trouxeram receitas sem precedentes do transporte areo de cargas. Com a oferta limitada devido paralisao dos avies de passageiros e a demanda em alta graas ao crescimento do comrcio eletrnico, os preos por quilograma de carga dispararam. De acordo com os nmeros do TAC Yields do Trade and Transport Group, em 2019, o frete areo de Hong Kong para a Amrica do Norte custou US$ 3,80/kg, enquanto o preo da Europa para a Amrica do Norte foi de US$ 2,10/kg. J em 2022, esses mesmos servios custavam US$ 9,00/kg e US$ 4,50/kg, respectivamente.

Como era de se esperar, essa situao alterou a posio dos transportadores de carga area. A receita com cargas mais que dobrou, passando de US$ 100 bilhes em 2019 para US$ 210 em 2021 (esses so os nmeros da IATA), enquanto a receita com passageiros despencou de US$ 607 bilhes anuais para US$ 239 bilhes. A receita anual da Cargolux cresceu de US$ 2,2 bilhes para US$ 5,1 bilhes durante a pandemia, e a Silkway mais do que dobrou sua receita e registrou um aumento em sua margem de –10% para +30%. Esses ganhos imensos, alm do potencial de longo prazo do comrcio eletrnico (que levou a Airbus e a Boeing a fazer previses otimistas para o crescimento do transporte areo de cargas), levaram muitas companhias areas a se concentrarem mais no transporte de cargas.

No entanto, o aumento da capacidade de carga fez com que os preos do frete cassem vertiginosamente uma vez mais. A IATA prev que os rendimentos anuais de carga cairo 28,6% este ano. Isso significa que o transporte areo de cargas, um setor notoriamente cclico, est mais uma vez entrando em um perodo de turbulncia. Esse o contexto em que as companhias areas esto decidindo se compraro novos avies de carga.

Novos cargueiros versus converso das aeronaves de passageiros em cargueiros

As companhias areas e os transportadores de carga area esto adotando estratgias diferentes na hora de aumentar suas frotas de cargueiros. De acordo com o ltimo relatrio da KPMG, no ano passado, foram feitas 35 encomendas de novas aeronaves 777–200F, 33 encomendas de novos 777–8Fs e 20 fornecedores compraram novos A350Fs. Estas encomendas foram feitas tanto por operadoras de carga area dedicadas (Cargolux, Silkway West, DHL, FedEx) quanto por companhias areas (Lufthansa Cargo, Qatar, Air Canada, China Airlines, EVA, Air France, Etihad, SIA e Western Global). Enquanto isso, as converses anuais de aeronaves de passageiros para cargueiros (P2F) atingiram recordes histricos, com um volume estimado em 180 aeronaves por ano at 2025, para, ento, se estabilizar em cerca de 160 aeronaves por ano. Isso se compara com 70 unidades por ano antes da pandemia da COVID–19.

Vrios fatores esto afetando a escolha de comprar cargueiros novos ou fazer converses de aeronaves de passageiros em cargueiros. Naturalmente, o custo um dos fatores mais importantes, levando em conta variveis como nmero total de encomendas, consumo de combustvel e manuteno, assim como os custos iniciais de produo. Os prazos de entrega de produo so outro fator importante, assim como o volume e a flexibilidade da carga.

Fator 1: Custos de leasing

H uma enorme diferena nos custos iniciais para cargueiros novos em relao aos cargueiros convertidos. O preo inicial de um 777–200F ou A350F novinho em folha de, aproximadamente, US$ 170 a US$ 185 milhes, ou uma taxa de leasing mensal entre US$ 1,2 e US$ 1,3 milho. Analisando a carteira de encomendas das empresas que fizeram compras no ano passado, a maioria dessas companhias areas tm uma quantidade significativa destes tipos de aeronaves em sua frota, especialmente as de carga combinada. Nestes casos, muito provvel que o custo real da compra tenha sido muito menor do que a faixa de US$ 170 a US$ 185 milhes. Economias positivas de escala tambm sero um diferencial para manter os custos baixos para essas companhias areas. Mesmo assim, apesar dessa economia, elas ainda tero que arcar com taxas de leasing mensais da ordem de US$ 1 milho.

Por outro lado, o leasing de uma converso de 777–300 de passageiros para carga custar US$ 0,6 milho por ms, ou cerca de US$ 65 milhes para a aquisio definitiva. provvel que essa aeronave se equipare bem a seus rivais originais de fbrica, porm, por uma frao do custo.

Fator 2: MRO e custos operacionais

As companhias areas economizaro nas converses P2Fs com relao a MRO (manuteno, reparo e operaes). Com acesso ao mercado de peas de segunda mo, a manuteno dessas aeronaves ser consideravelmente mais barata do que manter avies novos em operao.

Naturalmente, alm da economia de custos, o acesso a peas de segunda mo tambm pode acelerar e simplificar o processo de manuteno para as companhias areas.

O consumo de combustvel outra questo a considerar. Historicamente, temos visto melhorias significativas no consumo de combustvel quando novas aeronaves entram em operao. Quando a 777F foi apresentada como substituta da 747–400F, seu consumo de combustvel de 6.800 kg/h foi um grande avano em relao aos 10.230 kg/h oferecidos pelo 747–400F. No entanto, com a nova 777X e a A350, improvvel que vejamos melhorias no consumo de combustvel que correspondam reduo de 30% observada da 747–400F para a 777F. Uma diferena de 10% a 15% o mximo que podemos esperar de forma realista.

Em resumo, embora a melhoria no consumo de combustvel e (em alguns casos) as economias de escala possam amenizar o impacto financeiro da compra de um novo cargueiro, em termos de custos, as converses P2F so uma opo muito mais atrativa.

Fator 3: Volume e flexibilidade de entrega

As novas aeronaves de carga tm o potencial de oferecer benefcios em termos de capacidade e flexibilidade de entrega. O carregamento pelo nariz, em particular, oferece uma enorme vantagem. Ele permite que as aeronaves entreguem cargas de grande porte, como grandes geradores, motores, caminhes e tecnologia especializada. O mais importante que essa carga de grandes dimenses lucrativa, oferecendo maior rentabilidade do que as entregas normais de paletes.

No entanto, as novas aeronaves de carga que esto sendo produzidas, como a 777X e a A350F, no oferecem carregamento pelo nariz. Isso nivela o campo de jogo em termos das vantagens que uma aeronave de carga exclusivamente tem sobre uma converso, j que ambos agora esto restritos carga que pode passar pelas portas laterais.

Como as converses se comportam em termos de volume, densidade da embalagem e carga til bruta? Vamos considerar a 777–300ERCF em comparao com a 777F (que atualmente compe metade da frota de aeronaves de carga de grande porte do mundo) usando dados de uma comparao de 2022 feita pela Aircraft Commerce.

Embora a 777F oferea uma carga til total maior, de 106,6 toneladas mtricas, em termos de volume, a 777–300ERCF supera com folga a 777F. A 777–300ERCF oferece quase 6.000 ps cbicos a mais em volume total do que a 777F (28.739 ps cbicos em comparao com 22.971). A receita por carga til tambm consideravelmente maior. Com 6,5 lbs, so 186.804 ps cbicos, e, com 7,5 lbs, so 190.900 ps cbicos, em comparao com os 149.312 ps cbicos e 172.283 ps cbicos da 777F, respectivamente. Um ponto importante a ser observado nessa comparao que o volume, e no a carga til bruta, o que mais importa nas operaes expressas de comrcio eletrnico, que provavelmente sero um importante fator de crescimento no futuro. E, neste aspecto, a 777–300ERCF oferece uma clara vantagem.

Evitando a armadilha das compras de novas aeronaves de carga

A Airbus estima que ser necessrio adicionar mais 1.040 aeronaves de carga frota global de transporte de cargas at 2041 – as previses da Boeing so ainda mais confiantes. A compra de novas aeronaves de carga para atender a essa necessidade implica um risco significativo para as companhias areas. Com a queda significativa dos preos das cargas, o investimento CAPEX em uma nova A350 ou 777F representa um enorme desembolso financeiro em um momento em que os preos esto caindo rapidamente. Investir maciamente em uma nova aeronave de carga de US$ 185 milhes pode ter feito sentido em 2021, quando os preos da carga area estavam em nveis recordes. No entanto, em 2023, essa no mais uma poltica prudente.

Alm disso, a aquisio de uma nova aeronave de carga tem pouco a acrescentar em termos de desempenho e capacidade. As converses P2F podem se equiparar s novas aeronaves de carga fabricadas em termos de volume, e tm vantagens notveis quando se trata de manuteno e produo.

Em ltima anlise, as converses representam um risco financeiro muito menor, permitindo que as companhias areas aumentem de forma sustentvel sua capacidade de transporte de carga area. por isso que estamos assistindo a um crescimento significativo nas converses P2F, enquanto a entrega de novas aeronaves de carga estagnou. Com toda razo, muitas companhias areas no esto dispostas a assumir o risco financeiro de uma nova aeronave com a queda dos preos, e veem pouca vantagem em comparao com avies de passageiros reformados.

Conhea Gediminas Ziemelis

Gediminas Ziemelis (nascido em 4 de abril de 1977) um empresrio lituano bem–sucedido, consultor de negcios, fundador e atual presidente do Conselho de Administrao do Avia Solutions Group, um dos maiores fornecedores globais de ACMI (aeronaves, tripulao, manuteno e seguro), que opera uma frota de 180 aeronaves. Ele foi escolhido duas vezes entre os 40 jovens lderes mais talentosos do setor pela Aviation Week & Space Technology.

Gediminas conhecido por sua mentalidade cosmopolita e habilidades excepcionais de gesto, que contriburam para seu sucesso em vrias reas de negcios. Ao longo de seus 26 anos de carreira, Gediminas fundou mais de 100 start–ups, 50% delas ainda em operao, liderou empresas em 4 processos bem–sucedidos de IPO/SPO e levantou mais de 800 milhes de euros em mercados pblicos globais de capital e ttulos.

Em dezembro de 2022, Gediminas Ziemelis foi considerado o lituano mais rico pela TOP Magazine, com ativos estimados no valor de 1,68 bilho de euros.

Gediminas o maior doador do Rimantas Kaukenas Support Group, um fundo de caridade e apoio que oferece ajuda a crianas com doenas oncolgicas e s suas famlias. Ele tambm o maior acionista da principal equipe de basquete, a Wolves.

GLOBENEWSWIRE (Distribution ID 1000832339)

DUBLIN, Ireland, July 27, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The pandemic years brought record revenues from air cargo. With supply limited due to the grounding of passenger planes, and demand up thanks to booming ecommerce, prices per cargo kilogram soared. According to TAC Yields figures from the Trade and Transport Group, in 2019 air cargo from Hong Kong to North America cost $3.80/kg while the price from Europe to North America was $2.10/kg. By 2022, these same services cost $9.00/kg and $4.50/kg respectively.

Unsurprisingly, this situation transformed the position of air cargo providers. Cargo revenue more than doubled from $100 billion in 2019 up to $210 in 2021 (these are the IATA's figures) while passenger revenue plummeted from $607 billion annually down to $239 billion. Cargolux's annual revenue grew from $2.2 billion to $5.1 billion over the course of the pandemic, and Silkway more than doubled its revenue and saw its margin transform from –10% to +30%. These huge gains, plus the long–term potential of ecommerce (which has led Airbus and Boeing to make optimistic forecasts for growth in air cargo), led many airlines to focus more on cargo.

However, increased belly capacity has led cargo prices to drop steeply once more. The IATA forecasts that year–on–year cargo yield will fall by 28.6% this year. This means air cargo, a notoriously cyclical sector, is once again entering a period of turbulence. This is the context in which airlines are deciding whether to purchase new freight planes.

New freighters vs passenger–to–freighter conversions

Airlines and air cargo providers are pursuing different strategies when it comes to building up their freighter fleets. According to KPMG's latest report, last year, 35 orders were made for new 777–200F aircraft, 33 were made for new 777–8Fs, and 20 providers bought new A350Fs. These orders were made by both dedicated air cargo providers (Cargolux, Silkway West, DHL, FedEx) and airlines (Lufthansa Cargo, Qatar, Air Canada, China Airlines, EVA, Air France, Etihad, SIA and Western Global). Meanwhile, annual passenger–to–freighter (P–to–F) conversions have reached historic highs with volume estimated to peak at 180 per year by 2025, and then settle at around 160 aircraft per year. This compares to 70 units per year before the COVID–19 pandemic.

A number of factors are affecting the choice of purchasing either new freighters or P–to–F conversions. Naturally, cost is a major one, taking into account variables like total order number, fuel burn and maintenance as well as the upfront production costs. Production lead times is another key factor, as is cargo volume and flexibility.

Factor 1: Leasing Costs

There is a massive difference in the baseline costs for new versus converter freighters. The upfront price for a brand new 777–200F or A350F is roughly $170 to $185 million, or a monthly lease rate of between $1.2 and $1.3 million. Looking at the order book of those who made purchases last year, the majority of these airlines have a significant amount of these types of aircraft in their fleet, particularly the combination carriers. In these cases, it is highly likely that the actual purchase cost was much lower than the $170 to $185 million range. Positive economies of scale will also be a factor in keeping costs down for these airlines. Nevertheless, despite these savings they will still be looking at monthly lease rates of $1 million.

By contrast, leasing a 777–300 P–to–F conversion will cost $0.6 million per month, or roughly $65 million to purchase outright. This aircraft is likely to compare well with its production rivals, but at a fraction of the cost.

Factor 2: MRO and operating costs

Airlines will make savings on P–to–Fs when it comes to MRO. With access to the second hand market for parts, maintaining these aircraft will be considerably less expensive than keeping new planes in operation.

Naturally, alongside cost savings, access to second hand parts can also accelerate and simplify the maintenance process for airlines.

Fuel burn is another consideration. Historically, we have seen significant improvements in fuel burn when new aircraft come online. When the 777F was introduced as a replacement to the 747–400F, its 6,800 kg/h fuel burn was a huge improvement on the 10,230 kg/h offered by the 747–400F. However, with the new 777X and A350 we are unlikely to see improvements in fuel burn to match the 30% reduction seen from the 747–400F to the 777F. A 10% to 15% change is the most we can realistically expect.

On balance, while improved fuel burn and (in some cases) economies of scale may be able to soften the financial blow of purchasing a new freighter, in terms of costs P–to–F conversions are a far more attractive option.

Factor 3: Delivery volume and flexibility

New freighter aircraft have the potential to offer benefits in terms of delivery capacity and flexibility. Nose loading in particular offers a huge advantage. It enables aircraft to deliver outsized cargo such as large generators, engines, trucks and specialized technology. Crucially, this outsized cargo is lucrative, offering higher profitability than normal pallet deliveries.

However, new freighters being produced such as the 777X and the A350F do not offer nose loading. This levels the playing field in terms of the advantages a dedicated freighter has over a conversion, as both are now restricted to cargo that can fit through the side doors.

How do conversions fare in terms of volume, packing density and gross payload? Let's consider the 777–300ERCF compared to the 777F (which currently makes up half of the world's large freighter fleet) using data from a 2022 comparison by Aircraft Commerce.

While the 777F offers a larger overall payload of 106.6 metric tonnes, in terms of volume the 777–300ERCF comfortably outperforms the 777F. The 777–300ERCF offers almost 6,000 cu ft. more in total volume than the 777F (28,739 cu ft. compared to 22,971). Revenue per payload is also considerably higher. At 6.5lbs, it is 186,804 cu ft. and at 7.5lbs it is 190,900 cu ft, which compares to the 777F's 149,312 cu ft. and 172,283 cu ft. respectively. One important point to note with this comparison is that it is volume, not gross payload, that matters most in ecommerce express operations, which are likely to be an important growth driver in the future. And in this area, the 777–300ERCF offers a clear advantage.

Avoiding the trap of new freighter purchases

Airbus estimates that an additional 1,040 freighters will need to be added to the global cargo fleet by 2041 – Boeing's forecasts are even more confident. Buying new cargo freighters to meet this need carries significant risk for airlines. With cargo prices having fallen significantly, the CAPEX investment in a new A350 or 777F represents a massive financial outlay at a time when prices are falling fast. Investing heavily in a new $185–million freighter might have made sense in 2021 when air cargo prices were at record levels. However, in 2023 this is no longer a prudent policy.

Furthermore, there is little to be gained in performance and capacity from purchasing a new freighter. P–to–F conversions are capable of matching new production freighters in terms of volume, and they have notable advantages when it comes to maintenance and production.

Ultimately, conversions represent a much lower financial risk, enabling airlines to sustainably ramp up their air cargo capacity. That is why we are seeing significant growth in P–to–F conversions, while the delivery of new freight aircraft has stagnated. Quite rightly, many airlines are not willing to take on the financial risk of a new aircraft as prices tumble, and see little upside compared to refurbished passenger planes.

About Gediminas Ziemelis

Gediminas Ziemelis (born April 4, 1977) is an accomplished Lithuanian entrepreneur, business consultant, and the founder and current Chairman of the Board of Avia Solutions Group, one of the largest global ACMI (Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, and Insurance) provider, operating a fleet of 180 aircraft. He was selected twice among the top 40 most talented young industry leaders by Aviation Week & Space Technology.

Gediminas is known for his cosmopolitan mindset and exceptional management skills, which have contributed to his success in various business fields. Over his 26–year–long career, Gediminas has founded more than 100 start–ups, 50% of which are still in operation, led companies through 4 successful IPO/SPO processes, and raised over 800 million euros in global public capital and bond markets.

In December 2022, Gediminas Ziemelis was listed as the richest Lithuanian by TOP Magazine, with estimated assets worth 1.68 billion euros.

Gediminas is the largest donator of Rimantas Kaukenas Support Group, a charity and support fund, that provides help to children with oncological diseases and their families. He is also the biggest shareholder in the leading basketball club Wolves.

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